Picks 12/30/08

Here are the first set of picks since the time off:

Cleveland St -1 : Wright st is beat up and I think this is the game that the injuries finally catch up to them (aka Ohio St vs West Virginia).

Southern Mississippi -2 : Mississippi just lost arguably their best player Warren with a torn knee ligament so I am fading them.

Oklahoma -5.5 : Arkansas is real young has played no one this year hence the inflated record. Oklahoma is no cup cake.

Clemson -2.5 : Like Ark. South Carolina has played no one this year. Clemson has crazy ball pressure and has already won some big road games this year.

Over 127 Purdue / Illinois

Blog Update

And I am back. I apologize for the radio silence but I had a lot of stuff going on. I will be back posting my plays everyday again. As conference play begins, certain days of the week (aka Friday and Sunday) will be light on games while other days will have tons of games (Saturday). Here is to a profitable run to March.

-JD

Picks 12/6/08

Huge card today. There are so many games and lots of good lines. Here is what i have so far:

Gonzaga Over 137.5

Duke -9.5

Northwestern -6


BC -4.0

Penn State -6

ND -3


Miami +2

Results 12/4/08

0 Wins, 1 Loss, 0 Pushes

Texas looked like an easy cover at the end of the first half. Unfortunately they play two halves.

12/3/04 Results

4 Wins; 3 Loses; 0 Pushes

Got beat by the hook in the Siena game and was really close to hedging out of the FSU bet at half by playing Northwestern -2 for the 3 point middle.

Real small card tomorrow. Only thing that jumped out at me was Texas -6 vs UCLA. Texas is very good on defense and UCLA still has not found their offensive groove. Texas should win this by 9 - 12.

Picks 12/3/08

Sorry no time for write-ups:


Maryland Total Over 127.5
UMASS -1.5 (top play at some point you need to nut up and beat inferior teams)
North Carolina -10
Florida Sate +2
Siena -7.5
UAB Total Over 130.5
Auburn +14.5

Results 12/2/08

1 Win, 5 Loses; 0 Pushes

And the blood bath continues; just how I wanted to start the new month. An animal throwing darts at wall would have better results. Big slate of games today, at first glance I have about a dozen leans and I am know going through those games in depth.

Picks 12/2/08 -Adds

I am adding Purdue -2 over Duke. From the games I have watched these teams are very similar. Give me the one at home. This is the first real road game of the year for Duke and I expect Purdue to be fired up and shoot well from beyond the arch.

Time to kick off December. I have a full card today and may be adding some more games. I will have a play on the Duke / Purdue game, so check back for that one. So far it is a total's day:

South Carolina @ Princeton - Line: Over / Under 126

We can thank Fordham for some value here. In their last game Princeton won at Fordham 73 -61 going over the posted total of 119.5. That score had a lot more to do with Fordham's asstastic defense then some new found Priceton offense. Princeton plays so slow and South Carolina's defense should be good enough to make them run late into the shot clock. That Fordham game was the only time all season that Princeton scored over 55 and I see no reason why they will get over that total tonight. With Princeton scoring 55 that would mean South Carolina would need to score over 76 to go over the total. Sure they average 83 a game but this game is on the road and Princeton's D is only giving up 54.

The Pick: Go with the Under 126 in the Princeton game

Troy @ Dayton - Line Over / Under 143.5

Let down city here. Dayton is coming off of a major upset win at Marquette. It is usually a good spot to fade a team coming off of an upset when they follow with a team they should "easily" beat. The problem with the side is that Troy is pretty bad so I am looking to the total for the let down play. Dayton has been very good defensively this year only giving up 52.7 a game and playing at Dayton is a tough place to play. Dayton has a very good home crowd. Even if Dayton is not focused on this game, Troy should find it hard pressed to put a lot of points on the board. I expect Dayton to come out flat, for there to be a real sloppy slow scoring first half, followed by Dayton pulling away late to maybe cover the side maybe not cover the side but stay under the total. 143.5 is a decently high total. Even if Dayton got to 80 (I am thinking 70), Troy would need to get to 63.5against a team giving up 43 ppg at home.

The Pick: Dayton total to go under 143.5

Villanova @ UPENN - Line: Nova -13

Nova is a terrible matchup for Penn. Penn is a poor rebounding team and will struggle on the board against Nova but they will have even more problems with Nova's backcourt. Penn's guards struggled with Drexel's pressure defense and Nova's guards are a lot more athletic and talented. Nova won this game last season by 26 and returned their team in tact this season. The game is @ Penn but Nova usually plays a couple games a year at the Palestra so they are used to the court.

The Pick: Nova -13

Ohio St @ Miami - Line: Over / Under 131

Ohio State plays a real slow style game and is only giving up 40.3 ppg. Granted those games were not against teams as talented as Miami so that number is skewed but what is not skewed is that Ohio St has only averaged 63 ppg scored playing at home agianst inferior teams. Mami's Defense has been fairly good this year. The only game they struggled defensivily was against UCONN but Ohio St does not have a big man as talented as Thabeet. I expect this game to be played in 115 - 125 range.

The Pick: Ohio St / Miami Uner 131

Iowa @ Boston College - Line: Over / Under 130.5

Both of these teams have very good offensive efficiency's coupled with so so defense. BC's Tyrese Rice has really been heating up and I expect him to continue that at home. Also of note is that both of these teams get to the line 20+ times a game which really helps extend a game. I expect the winner of this game to get to 70 with the loser in the 60s. 70+60 gets us to 130 so as long as that 60 is a 61 that leads to a cover.

The Pick: Over 130.5 Iowa @ BC

Please no more OT in games where I pick the under!

Picks 12/1/08

Goodbye November! Here are the picks for the first day of a winning month:

There are none. Today is a small card and nothing jumps out at me. I have a couple leans like Kent St or the under in the Drexel game but nothing I feel really good about. I could see the Kansas game under as well.

Come back tomorrow.

Results 11/30/08

3 Wins, 1 Lose, 1 Tie

Well the horrible month at least ended on a good note. I learned a lesson on the Indiana Cornell game. You have to be just a little athletic so give Indiana trouble, Cornell is not very athletic.

Picks 11/30/08

I wanted to get these picks up now because I really love Sunday's card. Today is the day I turn this season around.

James Madison @ Fordham - Line: JMU -1

Both of these teams leave something to be desired but Fordham is the worse squad. They just lost to Princeton. They might be one of the worst defensive ball clubs in basketball and they try to play really up tempo but do not have the players to effectively pull of this style. JMU has no problem playing fast and I see them having no problem covering the spread here. I will have my eye on the total as well because I have a strong lean on the over, I just need to see the line.

The Pick: JMU -1


St. Mary's vs Providence (Neutral site) - Line: St Mary's -4.5

St. Mary's is a talented team that had a step back against UTEP. They really like to run and their point guard Patrick Mills is a stud. He will dominate this game as Providence trys to run with them but won't be able to keep up. I expect St. Mary's to pull away late and win by 10-15.

The Pick: St Mary's -4.5


Cornell @ Indiana - Line: Cornell -2.5

Indiana is horrible. I watched all of their games in Maui and they just do not have the players to compete this year. Yes this game is at Indiana but Cornell is an experienced team who has played on the road before and in tougher places, and played well. There are reports that Cornell's best player Louis Dale will return to the lineup for this game. If he doesn't Cornell wins; if he does Cornell wins. I know this looks like a trap game and I see that right now 65% of the wagerline action is on Indiana but I really like Cornell with this line. Saint Joe's whipped Indiana and think SJU will lose to Cornell later this season.

The pick: Cornell -2.5


Georgetown vs Maryland - Line: Georgetown -5

I watched Maryland play Gonzaga and they really struggled with Gonzaga's size. The Zags just kept pounding Maryland inside and just wore out the Terps. Well, guess what Georgetown also has a lot of size and I expect more of the same. I expect Maryland to be a trendy pick because this somewhat of a rivalry game that never gets paid but I look at that as creating value in the line. The Hoyas should have no problem pulling away and winning by 10. I could see this game being tied at half and setting up a nice 2nd half wager on Georgetown.

The Pick: Georgetown -5


That is all for now. There could be some good under total plays with some of these teams playing their 3rd game in 4 days. just need to wait to see the totals. I am also looking hard at Wichita St vs Michigan St, Siena vs Oklahoma St, Baylor vs Wake, Tennessee vs Gonzaga (should be a great game), and Louisville vs Western Kentucky.

Results 11/29/08

1 Win; 3 Loses; 1 Push

Adds

I am going to go and add Pitt -6.5. Pitt is just so efficient on offense I think they will be able to handle Washington St's Defense.

I decided to not play Northeastern. I just don't know enough about South Florida. My gut is saying Northeastern but that is not good enough.

I may have a play on the Stanford total tonight and I really like tomorrows card.

11/29/08 - Picks Add

St Bonaventure -3.5 @ Canisius (I like the bonnies in this one. They have been playing good basketball this year and have played on the road a few times already. The game is being played in Buffallo so it is at neither teams home gym. Both teams have similar size so I do not see Canisius being able to dominate in the paint)

Kentucky vs West Virginia Over 140 - I like the over here. I am expecting a fairly quick pace and West Virginia is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. The games in Vegas seemed to be called real close yesterday so i look for a good number of free throws which will extend the game. I had this total caped at 150 and expect both teams to get over 68 pts each, the line has however dropped since I placed the wager.

Kansas St vs Iowa Over 135.5 - I caped this total at at least 140 points so the 135.5 looks good. To be noted again, this line has also moved the other way since I placed the wager. Iowa plays a little quicker than people think and Kansas St gives up at lease 60 a game. Both teams are pretty efficient on offense and Kansas St has 4 good scorers so if 1 player is off someone else can pick up the slack.

That is it for now. I am looking at Pitt and maybe Northeastern (I think the wrong team might be favored here).

Picks 11/30/ Cont

I am not seeing much today. Not all of the totals have been posted yet so maybe I will have something later but I may not have any more plays at all.

Picks 11/29/08

Game is about to start Old Dominion +4 at Marshal

Take ODU they are the better team have 2 decent/good road wins and are catching points. Marshal's backcourt is sucks.

Picks 11/28/08 Adds

I am adding:

Purdue vs Oklahoma Over 138 (Purdue will have no answer for Griffen and Purdue should be able to hit the shots UAB was missing the other day. This is the 2nd game for both teams at the Garden so they should be comfortable with the environment and I see this game being a very close well played game. I would not be shocked if this game goes into OT and I am expecting a 75 - 70 type score)

Mississippi St +3 vs Washington St. (This game is being played in Newark NJ which means Washington st is flying across the country for this game. Both of these teams play good defense but Mississippi St has the better offense. Also Mississippi has been battle tested this year (winning @ St Bonaventure which is a very tough place to play) while Washington St has yet to play a good team or on the road. The last few years it has seemed to me that Washington St has been able to shut down a good offense and win a low scoring game but they have struggled when they have to overcome both a good offense and defense.

Picks 11/28/08

I hope everyone had a nice Holiday. I am at not at my place so I will not have time for detailed writeups. Here are the picks I have so far:

UAB -3.5 over BC (I think UAB has to much spead and BC's perimeter D will struggle with UAB's guard. I don;t expect UAB to struggle shooting 2 games in a row)

Arizona St -1.5 over Baylor (Arizona St is the better defensive ball club and I expect them to dictate the pace and slow Baylor down and limit Baylor offense and win this game going away)

Virginia @ Syracuse Under 159 - I think Virgina will struggle with the Cuse zone and this game has let down written all over it after the Cuse's big OT win over Kansas. I expect a sloppy start for the Cuse which should make this larg total tough to get over.

That's it for now still looking over a few more games.

Results 11/27/08

3 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Pushes

And the hits just keep on coming. Purdue blows a 17 point lead with 5 minutes left including fouling Rice who is not even over half court with 5 seconds left in the game. Purdue was up 9 (I have Purdue -8), he hits both free throws and we have a loss. Next we have the Stanford game, over 135, 80 points are scored in the first half. With 6 minutes and 30 seconds left in the game I need 9 points for a cover and both teams only manage to score 6. Final score Stanford 76 - Air Force 57 and we have another losing night.

Picks 11/26/08 - Adds

Finally an under game that does not go to OT. Now for the additional picks:

Richmond vs Bradley (Neutral Site) - Line: Richmond -3

Richmond is a very scrappy team with one of the A-10 better backcourts. They were able to hold their own against Syracuse at the Dome. Bradley, on the other hand, has struggled this year being blown out by Florida, losing to the UMKC Kangaroos, losing to Wisconsin-Platteville in an exhibition game (yes a division III school), and just barely edged Florida Gulf Coast in their game. This is not the same Bradley team that was doing damage in their NCAA Tourney in years past.

The Pick: Richmond -3

Purdue vs Boston College - Line: Purdue -8

Purdue is a very good team and really locks down on defense (I can't till they play Duke). They are also averaging almost 80 a game on offensive. Boston College just played a good defensive team in St Louis and they lost 53-50 and shot only 33.3% from the field. If you take away Tyrese Rice Boston College struggles. Purdue is good enough to do just that.

The Pick: Purdue -8

Cleveland St at Florida International - Line: Cleveland St -5

Cleveland St is one of the better teams in the Horizon League and is returned 4 of their starters this season. I am making a play on this game because both of these teams have 2 common opponents already. Cleveland st fared better in those games and Florida International is coming off of a loss West Georgia and has to turn right around play the next day.

The Pick: Cleveland St -5

The last 3 picks are all totals and Overs:

Central Florida / Mississippi - Over 146 (Mississippi plays 0 defense and plays their games in the high 70's and 80's. UCF has put 70 on the board twice already this season)

Alabama Birmingham / Oklahoma - Over 143 (UAB can flat out shoot but will have no defense answer for Oklahoma and Griffen. I think this game will have a similar pace and feel to when Oklahoma played Davidson which had 160 combined points. Oklahoma has also scored over 80 in every game they have played and gave up 76 to Gardner Webb in their last game and Gardner Webb is no UAB)

Air Force / Stanford - Over 135 (Stanford is averaging 89 a game / Air Force 65. Both teams give up 70 plus. This line is low because Air Force runs a pseudo Princeton style offense which typically run down the clock. However, I expect Stanford's D to be so undisciplined that they give up layups early in the shot clock. Stanford also really attacks the lane which gets them a lot of FT's (30+ pga) and really extends the game)

I have decided to start playing 1st and 2nd half lines if I see something I really like. I will be posting those plays as well. By actually watching a first half of a game value can sometimes be found in the 2nd half. 2nd half lines also afford one the ability to hedge out a bet.

11/26/08 Picks

It looks like I might have a big card today.

SJU vs Alabama - Line Over Under 137

The Pick: Take the Under 137. Neither of these really look to push and both teams are not great shooting teams. Score should be 65 - 60.

More picks to follow.

11/26/08 Results

1 Win, 3 Loses, 0 Pushes

It's nice how for the 2nd time in 2 days I pick an under, I am right, and lose the bet because of OT. Why is it that no one can hit Free thows to ice a game and why teams don't foul when up 3? No they just let the other team hit a 3 instead. News flash! it is impossible to score 3 points from the foul line. I hope Kansas loses.

Picks 11/25/08 -Adds

One more add for now:

Syracuse vs Kansas - Line Over / Under 151

Syracuse is an experienced team and they employ that very good zone defense. Kansas, on the other hand, is young and I expect them to struggle beating the zone. For the season, the Jayhawks are only shooting 25% from beyond the arch and I just don't think they have the shooters to destroy the Cuse zone. It should also be noted that most of the Big 12 teams play straight up man D so they do not see a lot of zone (especially nothing to the caliper of Syracuse). What this young Kansas team has done real well so far this season is play very good defense. Teams are only shooting 27.5% against them. Syracuse will be the best offensive team they have faced so far this season but I expect them to still be able to contest the Orangemen's shots. I think this total will finish in the 137 - 145 range.

The Pick: Under 151 in the Cuse / Jayhawk game

I know the public is all over Florida tonight but I still like the pick. Florida is a more experienced team and Washington is coming off a physical game with Kansas from last night. Washington's best player Jon Brockman looked really gassed at the end of the game. Florida has a deep enough front court to keep rotating in fresh bodies to play Brockman physical and has the much better backcourt. Additionally, Washington has really struggled this season losing at Portland and being whipped by Kansas last night 73-54.

Indiana sure does suck

I am shocked SJU has 80 points right now.

Add: Texas vs ND over 138.5
Add: Florida -5.5 vs Washington

Picks 11/25/08

First pick to start off the day:

Saint Joseph's vs Indiana (Maui Invitational) - Line Over / Under 130

Both of these teams do not have players good enough to routinely create their own shot so both teams are forced to burn the clock while they run offensive sets. I really think this will be a half court game with score like 65 - 55 (No OT please).

The Pick: Under 130 in the SJU vs Indiana game.

More picks to follow.

Results 11/25/08

3 Wins; 1 Loss; 0 Pushes

Pick: Valparaiso vs La Salle Under 141
Result: Loss - Valpo 70 - La Salle 75 (OT)

Pick: Notre Dame vs Indiana Over 135
Result: Win - ND 88 - Indiana 50

Pick: Texas -9 vs Saint Joseph's
Result: Win - Texas 68 - SJU 50

Pick: UCONN -5 vs Wisconsin
Result: Win - UCONN 76 - Wisc 57

My first real bad beat of the season thanks to stupid La Salle. They had so many chances to clinch a win in regulation (and the under) but could not hit their free throws. They even had 2 Ft's when the score was tied with 2 seconds left in regulation and missed both. The score was 58 - 58 going into OT but the teams somehow scored a combined 29 points in the 5 minutes of OT. WTF they were averaging 15 pts per 5 minutes and I had a 25 pt cushion.

Picks 11/24/08 - Round 3

Add UCONN -5 over Wisconson.

11/24/08 Picks - Cont.

Add:

Notre Dame / Indiana (Maui Invitational) - Line Over / Under 135

Notre Dame is a very good offensive team with suspect defense. Lucky for us they struggled from the field in their last game only scoring 65. Given that ND is coming off of close game (they clearly had looked past their opponent) and the fact that Indiana is an instate rival, I expect them to be focused and come out firing. Indiana not only lost their coach they lost their whole team as evey scholarship player from last season flew the coup. The Hoosiers are very young and will not be ready to handle a team as talented as ND. The line in this game is ND -15 (I would not be surprised if they won by 20+) which seems about right but I believe the total is off. ND should easily get 75+ (I expect 80) so Indiana only needs to get yo 60 for the cover. ND's D is not good enough to routinely keep their opponent from hitting 60, especially in rout (it is natural to slack a little on D at the end of a blow out).

The Pick: Take the Over 135

Picks 11/24/08

I have put Saturday behind me and I am now ready to move on after a day off. Here are the 2 plays I so far have:

La Salle / Valparaiso (Neutral Site) Line: Over / Under 141

This will be both teams 3rd game in 4 days. The most points that have been scored in a Valpo game is 139 this season. La Salle games have gone over the 141 total 2 out of 4 games but one of those games went to over time (total was 130 at the end of regulation) and the other was their game against UCONN in which the Huskies shot 40 free throws and both teams shot better from 50% from the field. Neither of these teams look to run and throwing in the possibility that some players may have lost their legs should keep this game in the 60's. I was hoping for the line to be 135 so I was happy to see 141.

The Pick: Take the Under 141

Saint Josephs / Texas (Maui Invitational) Line: Texas -9

I could write a novel on this game. Saint Joe's only consistent scoring option is their Center Ahmed Nivens following the departure of Pat Calathes and Robert Ferguson. Saint Joe's is very thin (and inexperienced outside of Nivens) in the front court. Their defense is predicated on switching and too many of the players seeing minutes are in-experienced. Rebounding is also I major question with this squad. Texas has the size to contain Nivens and will force someone else to step up and score but no one has shown the consistent ability to do this. Also if Texas presses (which I would expect them to do), Saint Joe's will struggle to get the ball up the court and get into their offensive sets. I was expecting a line of -13 in this spot.

The Pick: Lay the points; Texas -9

Results 11/22/08

1 Win; 7 Loses; 0 Ties

It is pretty clear that I am picking way too many games and need to get back to basics. The reason I never pick games this early in the season is that I have not seen the teams play. So I was trying to pick games based on statistics and it's clear that's not working. So I need to take a day or two off, I need to watch more games, and I need to be more disciplined.

11/22/08 Additional Play

So I am off to a great 0-3 start today, nothing like getting whipped over and over.

I am adding an additional play as the totals for the late games just cam out:

Depaul @ Illinois Chicago - Line Over / Under 140

When I capped the game last night I decided I would go with the over on any line 140 or lower. Well the line is 140 so play the over.

I may have a play on the Boise State total as well.

Picks 11/22/08 Continued

Here are the rest of tonight plays:

Virginia Commonwealth +1 @ Rhode Island

VCU is a better team than RI and better at most positions. RI is not a great home team and the line is where it is because everyone remembers RI hanging with Duke and Jimmy Baron lighting the scoreboard up. VCU plays real stingy D and will be all over Baron. Stop Baron and you stop RI. Take VCU.

Arkansas @ Missouri St -3

Missouri St typically plays well at home but this will be a special home game as it is their first game in their new arena. The lace is sold out and will have 11K fans rocking the building. This is not the same Arkansas team from last year. This team starts 3 Freshman. I do not like to rely on youth in spots like this and expect them struggle in their first road game given the special circumstances. Go with Missouri St.

Old Dominion -2.5 vs UAB

ODU is very underrated team. They play very well at home and have a strong backcourt to match up with UAB. They have had 6 days to prepare for this game and it is their home opener. Meaning while UAB has had to fly back from West Coast and will still be high from their upset win at Arizona. This is a tough spot for UAB and I expect a let down performance. Take Old Dominion.

Nevada -14 vs Oregon St

Nevada is at home playing one of (if not the ) worst major conference programs. Nevada should be returning one of their best players from a suspension and I like them to roll over Oregon St. Take Nevada.

Iona / Valparaiso -3 (Neutral Site)

Iona played the latter game last night losing to Wisconsin as a big dog in Over Time. They nearly pulled a major upset and now have to turn around a play a very solid Valparaiso squad that played San Diego tight. I expect a letdown by Iona following yesterday's tough emotional lost. Take Valpo.

B-Ball Picks 11/22/08

Add Boston College -1.5 @ St Louis.

Take BC -1.5. St Louis has good guards who should be able to contain Rice a bit but BC should be too strong inside.

NCAA Picks 11/22/08

1 Pick for now:

Drexel +21 @ Georgetown

Take Drexel plus the points. Both teams play deep into the shot clock and are known for the defense. I was hoping for a payable total but it feels right (127). I am a little concerned that Georgetown will dominate Drexel in the paint but their perimeter D should hopefully prevent (or slow down) Georgetown getting the ball into the paint. This game should be played in the 60's (max points I can see from Georgetown would be 75) so if Drexel can get to 50+ they should get a cover in this spot.

More to follow.

CFB Leans 11/22/08

With B-ball in full force be advised that I only spent a small amount of time looking at the Football Lines. Here are my leans/picks for tomorrow:

Louisville +7 (their run D is decent and this is big game if they want to play in a bowl game)
Purdue -11.5 (they will win this rivalry game for their coach)
Vanderbilt -3 (Fade Tennessee until they prove otherwise; they have packed it in)
PSU / Michigan Over 47.5
Illinois -3 (they need this game for a bowl berth)
Mississippi / LSU Under 55 (defenses are much better than the offensives)
Pittsburgh +5.5 (I don't believe in Cincinnati)
Memphis -5 (Memphis needs this game more; Central Florida has nothing to play for)

Results 11/21/08

3 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Ties

Marshall was a bad pick. Xavier and Michigan were near covers. I watched both games though and Duke dominated Michigan, I felt that Xavier should have covered they just missed way to many open shots.

I do not have any stats to back this up but it seems like the free throw shooting is worse than usual in every game I watch.

There are about 40 games with lines tomorrow so hopefully I can put together a good card and turn this week into a positive.

Picks 11/21/08

I am in a hurry today so I am just going to list the picks for now (plus games start at 1:30) and will try to add some analysis later if I get a chance.

The Picks:

Xavier -1.5 over Virginia Tech (Neutral Site)

USC -12.5 over Tennessee Chattanooga (Neutral Site)

Marshall -6 over Morgan St (Neutral Site)

UCLA -7.5 over Southern Illinois (Neutral Site)

Michigan +14 over Duke (Neutral Site)

San Diego -6.5 over Valparaiso (Neutral Site)

Delaware vs St Bonaventure (Neutral Site) - Under 148.5 - This is my favorite play. Both teams shoot free throws poorly, Boony has been shooting insane from behind the arch which will not continue forever, and the game will be played in NJ with probably 30 fans in attendance.

Results 11/20/08

2 Wins, 2 Loses, 0 Pushes

Memphis is really killing me. I fade them the first 2 games and they cover, than I back them and they deliver the performance I was expecting the first 2 games. Vandy picked a bad time for a scoring drought only scoring 1 pt from the 9 minute to the 2 minute mark in the 2nd half yet still had a chance to send the game to OT. Variance is fun.

Picks 11/20/08

I made these wagers last night as soon as the lines came out so my the lines listed here may not still be available (hopefully are not available since I bet them in anticipation of moves against my leans). Here is what I have so far; It's our first all chalk day:

Illinois @ Vanderbuilt - Line: Vandy -5

Every year I can count on one thing come march: picking Vandy to lose their first round game in the tourney. How do they get into the big dance you ask? They win at home. Vandy is one of the toughest places to play in all of college basketball. Throwing in the fact A.J. Ogilivy returned to Nashville and will be the best player on the floor makes this an easy decision for me.

The Pick: Vandy -5

Tennessee Chattanooga / Memphis (Played in Puerto Rico) Line: Memphis -21.5

I watched that whole Memphis vs. UMASS game and there are going to be some good opportunities to bet against Memphis. They are very athletic, have great length, and speed; but they can not shoot from the outside at all. Plus their stable of Freshmen (like most Freshmen) need to work on their mechanics. As long as they can force turnovers, run, and get to the basket they will be fine but I now have my eye out for the right team to derail this squad; but it is not Chattanooga. Chattanooga runs and guns, turns the ball over 20+ times a game, has a 28 point loss (75-103) to Missouri, and a 39 point loss to Tennessee (75-114); who is a decent comp to Memphis btw.

The Pick: Memphis - 21.5

Southern Illinois / Duke (played at the garden) - Line: Duke -12.5

Conflict of interest alert: I hate Duke, they are the evil empire. That being said, I see an easy cover here. I think this line would have been higher had Duke not played a close game with Rhode Island. The thing about that game is RI's Jimmy Baron shot 8-10 from behind the arc and Duke still won by 3 despite having an off night from behind the arc themselves. If someone from Southern Illinois can hit 8-10 from 3 than I will tip my hat. Now, if Southern Illinois still had Randal Faulkner and Matt Shaw and played the great D from 2 seasons ago I would be on their side but they don't. They gave up 73 to UMASS and were losing bad at one point in that game before UMASS's short bench caught up to them.

The Pick: Duke -12.5

Cal Poly SLO @ Rice - Line: Rice -3

This one is rather simple. Rice played a close game losing to an improved Portland St (who is now 2-0 following a road win at Portland as a 9 point dog) by 4 their first time out while Cal Poly SLO lost at home to Arkansas-Little Rock 67-40. Based on the line moves from Rice's first game it appeared that smart money was on Rice right before tip off. Here is an interesting Cal Poly news nugget I found:

"Cal Poly recruit Anthony Di Loreto did not enroll this fall after being arrested on bank robbery charges over the summer. Di Loreto, a 7-footer from Hopkins High School in Minnetonka, Minn., was the alleged getaway driver in the Aug. 16 robbery of a bank in Danbury, Wis. Di Loreto, 18, reportedly was charged with bank robbery and possession of a sawed-off shotgun. He helped Hopkins finish 26-2 last season and was viewed as one of Cal Poly's more intriguing recruits." (Source USA Today)

The Pick: Rice -3

I wish the Xavier Missouri game was on TV.

11/19/08 Results

2 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Ties

And the yo-yo performance continues. What I am about to type is an understatement: Wofford was was my worst pick of the season. Where did all the 3's come from in the Morehead St / Drake game. Morehead had 3 and 5 triples in their first two games but hit 10 tonight and Drake shot a ridicules 15-27 from beyond the ark.

Picks 11/19/08

This should hopefully be the last time I change thee blog layout. Since I doubt anyone is going to this site for the cosmetics I decided to go with the layout that is easiest to read.

There are only 12 games with lines today. This can be both a good thing and a bad thing. The less lines there are the more likely Vegas set a good number. However, the less games the more likely the public is piling on the same couple of games and moving lines to create value. Also, the less games the more time I can spend on researching each game. On to the picks:

Northern Iowa @ Illinois-Chicago - Line: Illinois-Chicago -5.5

Northern Iowa opened the season by beating Denver (not a great team) by only 5 (they were a 15.5 point favorite). Illinois-Chicago opened up at Bradley and lost by 6 (they were a 4.5 dog) despite Bradley having 27 more free throw attempts (I did not see the game so I do not know if any home-cooking was involved). Illinois-Chicago lost 2 starters from last years team but returned their best big man Scott VanderMeer and guard Josh Mayo. Northern Iowa , on the other hand, lost 3 starters including their best guard/player Eric Coleman (12.3 ppg, 8.8 reb, 2 at). These two teams met last year at Northern Iowa with Illinois-Chicago winning the contest 70 – 58. In that game, the departed Coleman scored 26 pts and 11 rbs and they still lost by 12. Go with the home team that won this game on the road last year and pick Illinois-Chicago.

The Pick: Illinois-Chicago -5.5

Wofford @ Clemson - Line: Clemson -22

Wofford played Dayton close losing 49-52 in their first game. In some was Dayton is a poor man's Clemson. They are both athletic teams only Clemson is a better shooting team. This line has moved a ton since opening at 15 at one Vegas book. My guess is the public is throwing their cash on one of the only teams they have heard of that has a line tonight. Clemson will win this but 22 just seems way to rich of line to cover.

The Pick: Wofford +22 (This line could move even higher so you might want to wait close to tip)

Morehead State @ Drake - Line +15 & O/U 124

Drake has played 1 real game a 2 exhibition games. The real game was a loss to Butler at home where they scored 48. In the two exhibition games they scored 77 and 57 against two teams I have never heard of. In fact the game against Arkansas Tech they only won 57-51. Morehead has played 2 real games and 1 exhibition. They scored 48 against Vanderbuilt, 54 against UL Monroe, and in the exhibition 84 against Carleton U (Who?). Drake played a very good zone defense last year and while they are struggling to score (due to lost personal) the defense should carry over to this season. This just becomes a math situation. The max amount of points I can see Drake scoring is 65 that means Morehead only needs to get to 50 to cover the spread. As for the over under, assuming Drake can get to 65 (not sure they even can) Morehead would need to get to 60 for this total to go over. Placing both wagers also serves as a but of a hedge because if this game does go over that more than likely means Morehead covered the line.

The Picks: Morehead +15 & The Total Under 124 (I can see the +15 going to as many as 16)

Niagara @ Villanova - Line: Over / Under 160.5

Nova scored 107 against Fordham last game but they did it shooting 60% as a team. 65 of the 107 came from Nova's front court which is not their strength; it is their guards. I just not see anyway possible that Dante Cunningham scores 31 again or the team shoots 60%. I think 80-85 is a more likely number from Nova tonight. That leaves 75 for Niagara and the score will still go under. Niagara's strength is also their backcourt but their backcourt is not even close to the caliber of Nova's. In fact Niagara starts Bilal Benn who had to transfer out of Nova because he was not getting any playing time. So Niagara backcourt will be guarded by an even better backcourt. I think this score will be something like 85 - 68.

The Pick: Take the under 160.5

South Florida @ Virginia - Line: Over/Under 145.5

This line is inflated because Virginia scored over 100 against VMI. Kentucky also scored 100 against VMI and followed that up with 58 against UNC. Scoring points against VMI does not mean anything they gun and play no D.

The Pick: Take the under 145.5 (i think this total keeps dropping so bet it now)

(I do not have time to proof read this post).

11/18/08 Results

6 Wins, 1 Lose, 1 Push

Our first big night of the season. JMU was the only tarnish on tonight's card. I still can not believe that they were not able to beat Mississippi Valley St by 11. The Buffalo under was a pretty lucky cover as Buffalo had a 9 minute scoring draught in the 2nd half, but hey a cover is a cover.

Picks 11/18/08

I have put yesterday behind me and I am hoping for a good run tonight. I had UPENN +2 this morning so that game ended in a push. Now for the picks:

Florida St @ LaSalle - Line: Over / Under 141.5

The Pick: Both of these teams struggled in their opener. Florida St is young and gone is LaSalle's Darnell Harris. I watched a lot of LaSalle games last year and the offense was run through Harris and his incredible range. Without Harris and given Florida St's lack of experience I just see this as a low scoring affair. Take the Under.

South Alabama @ Mississippi - Line: Over / Under 151.5

The Pick: Both of these teams like to run and put up major points in their exhibition games. South Alabama scored 87 in their first game while giving up 79. Mississippi was able to score 65 in the first game despite being only 3-19 in 3 pointers. I think the winner in this games gets to 85-90 and the loser chips in 70+. Take the Over.

CSU Northridge @ Stanford - Line Stanford - 11

The Pick: CSU Northridge turned the ball over 22 times in their opening win over Cal Lutheran. That won't cut it against Stanford. Value has been created in this line because Stanford failed to cover a 12.5 pt line against Yale (they won by 8) but Yale is an improved team (Andy Katz even picked them to win the Ivy League). Law the points and take Stanford to cover.

Loyola Chicago @ Purdue - Line Purdue -19

The Pick: Purdue has played two games and won big in both. Before beating Georgia (who is in a dogfight as I type this post with Eastern Michigan who Purdue blew out) Loyola lost to a division 2 squad. Purdue is at home, Loyola will have a hang over from last night's win (probably one of the biggest "name" wins in school history), and Purdue has proven they can run a score up. Purdue -19.

Mississippi Valley St / James Madison (Neutral Court) - Line JMU -10.5

The Pick: JMU really let me down last night but I am not going to give up on them. JMU's starting guards all had an off shooting nights against Davison. MVS has already lost by 26 to Arizona St, 51 to Washington St (they scored only 25 pts) and 41 to Oaklahoma. JMU is a better team then they showed against Davidson and MVS does not have Stephen Curry (he dropped 33 on JMU last night). So in summary, while JMU screwed me last night they at least lost bad enough to set up a value bet tonight. Take JMU to cover 10.5.

I am running out of time so here are the last two plays:

Buffalo @ Canisius - Take the Under 136
Portland U @ Portland St - Take the Over 141.5

I might have a play on the Georgia Southern / UTEP game or Wisc Green Bay / Utah. So check back later.

11/17/08 Results

5 Wins; 8 Loses; 0 Pushes

Tough night. I really thought it was going to be a winning card. As much as I would like to watch Hawaii I need to go to bed. I think I need to focus in on Totals more than I have to this point. I have noticed it seems to be much easier to get a backdoor cover of a large point total from smaller schools. This is probably as a result of weaker benches but it also seems like the coaches empty their bench a little sooner as well. Of the losing picks I most regret taking UMASS plus the points the most. I should have anticipated Memphis wearing them out by the end of the game.

Back to basics for tomorrow. I like Penn over Drexel. Drexel is the home team but you can walk from one campus to the other in a couple minutes so the travel should not be hard. I think Penn is the pick because they played Drexel tough last year (lost in OT) despite relying heavily on 4 freshmen, Drexel lost in my opinion their best player Frank Elegar, drexel will be transitioning from a front court lead team to a guard lead team, the aforementioned freshmen are now have a year under their belt, and this will be Drexel's first game of the year with a Tuesday 10 am tip (good change they come out tight). I just hope their is no hangover from the UNC game. I am listing this now since I might not be up before the game starts.

Picks 11/17/08

Ok so I was not planning on having so many plays today but I just kept finding value all over the card (especially on the dogs). Now I just need to not go 0-13. I am going to list every game and pick and than give a couple comments today.

Toledo @ Xavier (Line: Xavier -19) - Pick: Toledo +19

Missouri St @ Central Michigan Line (Over/Under 135.5) - Pick: Under

UL Monroe @ Mississippi St (Line: Mississippi St -20) - Pick: UL Monroe +20

Loyola Maryland @ Boston College (Line: BC -14.5) - Pick: BC -14.5

Cornell / St Johns (Neutral Site) (Line: SJU -4) - Pick: Cornell +4

Eastern Michigan @ Purdue (Line: Purdue -21.5) - Pick: Eastern Michigan +21.5

Loyola Chicago / Georgia (Neutral Site) (Line: Georgia -6.5) - Pick: Georgia -6.5

James Madison / Davidson (Neutral Site) (Line: Davidson -15) - Pick: JMU +15

Boise St @ Siena (Line: Siena -12.5) - Pick: Siena -12.5

St Bonaventure @ Marist (Line: Marist -5) - Pick: Marist -5

Massachusetts @ Memphis (Line: Memphis -14) - Pick: UMASS +14

Massachusetts @ Memphis (Line: Over/Under 154) - Pick: Over

Fresno St @ Saint Mary's (Line: Saint Mary's -21.5) - Pick: Fresno St +21.5

What can I say, I currently have a soft spot for dogs. Siena brings back all their starters while Boise St lost 4. Siena is at home and won by 23 at Boise last year. Prepare for a track meet in Memphis, I think the winner fo this one gets at least 85. St Bonny has more talent than usual but Marist is tough place to play on the road. The Davidson line opened at -17.5 and quickly moved because while Davidson still has Stephan Curry they lost 2 starters from last years team while JMU returned most of their team and added Matt Brady at head coach. Brady turned around Marist in his short time there and, as an assistant, was a huge part of the success of the Saint Joe's Eight run.

Results 11/16/08

6 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Pushes

I like today's slate of games so check back later for my picks.

Picks 11/16/08

As promised a have a full slate of games today. I will highlight a few and just list the rest.

Long Beach St @ Wisconsin - Line Wisconsin -22

The Pick: I love LBSU in this spot. Wisconsin plays a slow style and struggled to score in their last exhibition game against UW-Whitewater (???) only getting to 64. Unless they can hold LBSU to under 45 I do not see anyway they can cover this line. Take LBSU plus 22.

Rutgers @ Delaware - Line Delaware -4.0

The Pick: Another special situation play. Vegas set this line at Delaware -4.5 because on paper they are the better team and they are at home. The books know that the public will play Rutgers because they are a Big East School at are playing no name Delaware. This tells me Vegas thinks Delaware is even more than a -4.5 favorite. Delaware returns most of their key players from last year so lay the points and take the value Blue Hens (think about waiting till tip off on this one).

Wofford @ Dayton - Line Dayton -16.5

The Pick: Dayotn has played poorly in their preseason games and has athletes but I do not see any pure scorers with Brian Roberts gone. I think Dayotn will win but not cover. Play Wofford.

The rest of my plays for today:

Over 138 in the New Mexico / Creighton

Over 129 in the Old Dominion / NC Charlotte

Clemson -7.5 over Temple (I think Clemson should be athletic enough to limit
Dionte Christmas)

College of Charleston -4,5 over TCU

Georgia St +14 @ Minnesota (Minny has proven they can not cover a big line)

Wisc Milwaukee +4.5 @ Iowa St (this is a tournament and they have both beaten the same 2 teams but Wisc Mil has done it in more impressive fashion).

San Jose St +14 @ Nebraska

I am not sure Duke can limit Rhode Island enough to cover the posted line but I am not making this a play. Hopefully this turns out to be a strong card.

Results 11/15/08

CFB 2 Wins, 2 Loses, 0 Pushes

CBB 1 Win, 2 Loses, 0 Pushes

Holy line moves in CBB. The Houston game opened at -7 went to -6 and than moved to -8.5 by tip off. Houston won by 9 thus covering all of these variations. The Potland St line opened at -5 (which I locked in) but moved to -2 by tip off. Portland St won by 4 and I did not get the cover I could have had. I need to go back and see if I should have seen that move coming. The Memphis line moved from -19 to -21. I anticipated this move and waited until kickoff and got the +21 however it did not matter when Memphis won by 27. I know Memphis was only playing Fairfield, but Freshmen guard Tyreke Evans' stat line looks as good as advertised. Nova must really wish that Rose stayed at Memphis because he would most likely be in a Wildcats uniform this year.

I started this blog because I thought it would improve my handicapping by forcing me to look at every game hard since I would be posting my picks and it has. I spend a lot more time researching every game than I have in the past. However, there has be one adverse effect. I have been so concerned with posting losers that I have been excluding games I have leans on because I am worried about posting 15 games and going 0-15. To date, a lot more of these leans that have been excluded would have been covers rather than losers. So from now on, I am going to correct this mistake. If I see an edge on any side of a bet I am posting it. I don't care if I go 0-20. I am doing this blog to hopefully make money by improving my results and if I am content that my analysis has yielded 20 good bets than I will be posting and wagering on 20 games.

Picks 11/15/08 Round 2

Here are the College Basketball plays I have so far:

Western Kentucky at Houston - Line Houston -6

The Pick: This will be Houston's 3rd game of the year. They are 1-1 with a disappointing loss to GeorgiaSouthern. Western Kentucky had a great season last year but returns this season without Tyrone Brazleton, Courtney Lee (these two combined for 45 pts per game last year), and with a new head coach. Western Kentucky has no many question marks for my taste and struggled in their exhibition games. This line screams value to me because Houston is at home, has already played 2 games, and catches a team that will be a trendy pick based on last years success and not this years prospects. Take Houston and lay the points.

Portland St @ Rice - Line Portland St -5

The Pick: Last season Rice was 3-27 and is projected to finish last in conference USA. Portland St made the NCAA tournament last year and returns their best player Jeremiah Dominguez and has some good transfers eligible this year who previous played in major conferences. I say fade Rice and take Portland St -5.

Fairfield @ Memphis - Line Memphis -19.5

The Pick: Same deal as last night. Is Memphis talented, without a doubt, but gone are Joey Dorsey, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Derrick Rose. Memphis has a lot less experience and is being asked to cover 19.5 against a Fairfield squad that returns all 5 starters has a one of the MAAC's top front court. Take Fairfield and the pts. (you may want to wait to right before tip off could this line could move in Fairfield's favor and may go off at 20).

That is it for now. It will take a miracle for that Texas game to get over the total. That pick looks like a lame duck.

Picks 11/15/08 (Round 1)

Ok here are my first lot of games.

Northwestern @ Michigan - Line Michigan -3.5

The Pick: If anyone watched the Northwestern Minnesota game from 2 weeks ago you would have seen it was a battle of futility. Both teams had me scratching my head trying to figure out how they had the records they did. That game set up to successful fades the following week as Ohio St. destroyed Northwestern and Michigan beat Minnesota to both easily cover. Michigan has been playing better as of late and will want to win a game in front of their home fans so take Michigan -3.5 to the bank.

Notre Dame @ Navy - Line ND -3.5

The Pick: This is one of those special situation games that only presents itself in college sports. ND lost at home last year to Navy, the players have had to listen to the media calling for their coach and Navy's defense is not very good against the pass. Notre Dame has been struggling lately because ND's QB Jimmy Clausen has been in a funk. This defense should be poor enough for him to right the ship and ND plays against the option enough that they should be able to limit Navy's ground game enough for a ND cover. Lay the points.

New Mexico @ Colorado St - Line (now NM -2.5)

The Pick: I do not get this line move. This game opened at a pick'em. Both this team are 4 win middle of the road squads. However, Colorado St plays much better at home and nearly beat TCU and BYU at home. I locked this game in on Monday at Colorado St -0 so take the +2.5 now go with the Rams.

Texas @ Kansas - Line over/under 65.5

The Pick: The over under opened up at 70 and has steadily dropped to 65.5. I think this has created value in the over. I keep looking at this game and trying to project the total and I keep getting in the 70's. Kansas' defense sucks. Recently they have given up 45 to Nebraska, 21 to Kansas St, 63 to Texas Tech and 45 to Oklahoma. I think Texas is good for 45 and Kansas is good for at least 21. I hate to touch games with totals this high but take the Over.

More games to follow. I am finishing up my basketball analysis and will have at least 2 plays and possible another play or 2 in football.

11/14/08 Results

5 Wins; 3 Loses, 0 Pushes

What went right:

All the dogs and Auburn covered. Early in the season there is good value fading certain big name schools against the right opponent. Obviously these betting opportunities disappear once conference play starts.

What went wrong:

Not that much. Yes 3 picks failed to cover but the cover was in site in all three. Appalachian St (pick em) blew a 17 pt lead with 5 minutes left and lost in OT. Georgia St (-2) also lost in OT by 1 when Bowling Green hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer, and Central Michigan beat Princeton but only by 2 (-3.5) despite being up by as many as 11 in the final minutes. Investing in sports, like any other risky asset, brings both positive and negative variance. I have to come to accept it and while I really wish all 3 of these covered what is more important is that my analysis and decision making is sound. There will be ups and downs, tough losses and miracle covers, it is characteristic of the investment vehicle. If Georgia St lost by 18 than something went wrong and I need to figure out what it was and make sure I do not repeat it again. So far the only real mistake I have made was my belief that Northeastern would be able to contain Manny Harris of Michigan.

I have a handful for CFB picks to post and some possible B-Ball plays for Saturday.

Picks 11/14/08

My first glance was wrong and I have found some games I like. In general most of the spreads look to high for the favorite to cover. This happens because the public bets the name teams and their schools and the books just want to balance the action so they put up a high number. Here is what I have for now. Short explanations today since I do not have a lot of time.

Central Michigan @ Princeton - Line Central Michigan - 3.5

The Pick: I am fading Princeton here. Until they prove they have gotten better from last year take the team from the better conference and make a play on Central Michigan -3.6.

Missouri St @ Auburn - Line Auburn -8

The Pick: Auburn has good guards, plays tough D, and plays at home against a team with some injuries. Lay the points and take Auburn -8

Georgia St vs Bowling Green (Neutral Site Game) - Line Georgia St -2

The Pick: Bowling Greens returns all 5 starters but their top two players and scores are suspended for this game. Georgia St. returns 4 of their starters from last year. Bowling Green does not have the depth to overcome suspensions so make a play on Georgia St -2.0

Appalachian St vs UNC Wilmington (Neutral Site Game) - Line Pick'em

UNC Wilimington lost 4 starters and has a lot of question marks heading into this season. Appalachian St returns 4 solid players an 18 win team. I say side with experience and take Appalachian St in the pick'em.

Northern Colorado @ Oregon - Line Oregon -17
E Washington @ Illinois - Line Illinois -19.5
Jacksonville St @ South Carolina - Line South Carolina -22
Arkansas St @ Mississippi -20

The Picks: There is a common theme in all of these games: Big name teams with some question marks being asked to cover big lines. To cover lines this big you usually need to score 70+ pts and I am not sure any of these teams will be run and gun (except Ole Miss but Arkansas st has a good coach and a solid squad). Take the points and go with the underdogs and bet Northern Colorado (+17), E Washington (+19.5), and Jacksonville St (+22), and Arkansas St (+20)

I will be out scouting a local team live tonight. Once my questions are answered about this squad we should have a series of plays.

11/13/08 Results

0 Wins; 2 Loses; 0 Pushes

What a tough night. Maimi dominates the game but doesn't get the cover thanks to kicking too many short FG's. Then there was the Wyoming and UNLV over. Once again too many FG's this time by UNLV. They were inside the 30, 4 times in the first half and came away with 9 pts. Wyoming is driving late down by 8 (a td a 2 pt conversion locks in an over) and the QB throws across his body and the pass gets picked off.

I am not off to the start I envisioned when I started this blog but this is a marathon and not a race. I plan on righting this ship quickly.

I have a couple of Football games for Saturday that I will be posting. There is a large slate of B-ball games tomorrow but nothing really jumped off the page at first glance. After further analysis, I may have a play or two. I like to be cautious early until I watch a lot of games.

CFB Picks 11/13/08

Here are today's free sport betting picks:

Virginia Tech at Miami - Line Miami -4.0

Virginia Tech reminds me of West Virginia; if you limit their ground game you limit their success.

The Pick: Miami's D only gives up 113.2 yards a game on the ground and while not a great passing team they should be able to move the ball through the air well enough to get the cover at home. Take Miami -4 and watch that Pick Cover.

Wyoming at UNLV - Line 47 points Over/Under

Folks we have what I like to call a perfect storm betting scenario. The line is 47 pts because Wyoming averages 11.8 ppg and UNLV 26.4 ppg. But let's dig deeper. Both defenses are rather weak: Wyoming gives up 28 ppg and is softer against the pass. UNLV gives up 33.5 ppg and is softer against the run. Ok so who concedes the bad offenses or the bad defenses? It's the bad defenses. Wyoming can score points when they can run the ball its just that they have faced a lot of good run defenses. 2 weeks ago they finally got to play a bad one and they gashed SDSU for over 300 yards on the ground and scored 35 pts. UNLV's D gives up 230 yards on the ground per game. If UNLV only scores their average 26 pts ppg (I think they will go higher at home and against a poor D) than Wyoming only needs to chip in 21 for the over cover.

The Pick: Just like good defenses usually shut down good offenses; bad defenses usually make bad offenses look good. Take the OVER and cheer for both teams to score.

11/12/08 Results

1 Win ; 1 Loss ; 0 Pushes

Not really the results I wanted to kick off the season but it could have been worse. I said that as Harris went so did Michigan and boy did he ever go: 26pts, 10 rbs, 8 asts. I was definitely wrong about Northeastern being able to cover him. I expected the Southern Illinois game to be a tough cover but I wasn't expecting it to be angina city. Down by 11 at half, than up by 11 with 41 seconds left to a 7 point win to cover the 5 point spread. I have to admit I was disappointed by the Salukis defensive effort. UMASS does have a deep backcourt (might be the best in the A-10) but I thought Saluki's would need to keep the Minutemen in the 60's to get a cover. Luckily, UMASS' D was bad enough to let SI score 80.

My football picks went 1-1. I was on Temple and Central Michigan. I have officially decided to start posting my CFB picks as well. There are no NCAA basketball games tomorrow but I will have a football play. So check back.

Picks 11/12/08

Here we go the first picks of the season:



Northeastern @ Michigan - Line Michigan -5.5



Northestern returns all 5 of their starters and only lost 2 players who played any kind of minutes (neither of these players scored much) last season. They are an experienced team and Michigan is not. Northeastern's 6'5 guard Chase Allen is a good defender and would expect him to guard Michigan's Harris who is also 6'5. If you can limit Harris' points you limit Michigan. Looking at last years stats for these teams reveals that they had similar offensive and defensive efficiencies. When things look similar go with experience.



The Pick: I wish this game was not being played in Ann Harbor but take Northeastern plus the +5.5.



UMASS @ Southern Illinois - Line SI -5



UMASS lost 2 of their best players players in Forbes and Brower but return a solid group of guards who can score. The problem is UMASS's defense is trash city. Southern Illinois also lost 2 of their best players in Faulker and Shaw but they are known for good defense (although they kind of sucked last year which was most likely due to lack of effort caused by the previous seasons success). They return their PG who hopefully will get the team to put in more effort when they do not have the ball.



The Pick: On one hand you have UMASS a team with guards who can score but who suck at defense. On the hand you have a team who should be/ is better on defense but who will probably struggle to score. That is struggle to score when not playing UMASS. When you throw in the home court advantage Take Southern Illinois -5 (be prepared to possible sweat this one)

Other News and Notes:

I might have a play on the Miami Oh - Weber St game. My analysis says Miami should have no problems winning this game but who cares about winning we care about covering a 12.5 pt spread and that I am not sure of yet. Also I have leans on 2 CFB games tonight that I might post so check back later.

College Football

This blog was intended to just contain College basketball picks (see my first blog post), however, after watching college football lines for most of the season it became apparent that my techniques for capping basketball seemed to be applicable to college football as well. So three weeks ago I started picking NCAA football games and I have been muy enfuego. Checking my bet log file (always keep good records it keeps you from lying to yourself about your performance) I have gone 17-8 in games wagered and 22-9 for total games picked (my account was underfunded since I was just using a small left over balance from an old book so I was not able to wager every game I picked). Few things to point out: 1) I really wish I had posted my picks here on the blog for all my readers and 2) this win rate is way to high to maintain over a large sample set.

I have already locked in 6 plays for the rest of the week and I will probably post them (still debating this since the season is almost over and the blog was suppose to be just basketball as previously stated).

It's time to get this party started!

College B-Ball has officially begun and it is time to start my experiment. I had a lean on one of yesterday's games (11/11) but I did not make it an official play. Of course it would have covered but oh well let's move on.

I would like to point out that I use a number of techniques in capping CBB games but watching games is very important for my style. The more teams and games I have watched the better my handicapping gets. Naturally this is very tough early in the season (since no one has played yet) so I have to lean way more heavily on statistics than I will later in the season. So, if I start out cold please stick with with me and continue to check out my blog because in the past I have gotten much stronger as the season has worn on.

I am keeping an eye on 2 games for today (waiting for a line to come out on one and hoping the number looks good & trying to decide if I want to make my lean a bet in the other one) and may have my first official picks of the season so please check back later.

What Is Picks That Cover????

Picks That Cover is the home of me: the one and only Johnny December. This blog has been created to track the success of my sports betting picks and force me to become disciplined in my handicapping so as not to let you my readers down. Here is everything I want you to know regarding my blog:

• This blog is for entertainment purposes. I am simply providing information and my views on which teams will cover. Any use of my recommendations is at the discretion of the user and I am not saying to bet these sides; always do your own research and due diligence.
• Initially this blog will consist of picks covering strictly Men's NCAA basketball, the sport that I believe I have the greatest +EV.
• I will post my picks as soon as I have a play on a game and at the line that I am able to get at that time.
• I will try and provide a write-up explaining my logic for each pick but will not guarantee this.
• I believe in proper bank roll management and urge never betting more than 2% of ones bankroll on any single game.
• I also recommend always betting the same amount on each game (one unit per contest). Yes, employing Kelly’s Criteria will result in greater maximization of profits; however this is if and only if one can quantify the exact amount of edge that they have in each game and I am not sure this is possible. Once you start to vary the number of units per game the only games that really matter are the high unit games.
• My picks will not always cover and there will be winning and losing streaks. The goal is to grind a wining percentage greater than 53% (the break-even point with 10% juice) over a large number of games. I am strictly concerned with generating profits and not winning percentages.
• The most important element to my handicapping formula is the eye test. I need to watch the teams and get a feel for them so things could be dicey in the early part of the season.
• Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
• Always shop for the best line.