Picks 12/30/08

Here are the first set of picks since the time off:

Cleveland St -1 : Wright st is beat up and I think this is the game that the injuries finally catch up to them (aka Ohio St vs West Virginia).

Southern Mississippi -2 : Mississippi just lost arguably their best player Warren with a torn knee ligament so I am fading them.

Oklahoma -5.5 : Arkansas is real young has played no one this year hence the inflated record. Oklahoma is no cup cake.

Clemson -2.5 : Like Ark. South Carolina has played no one this year. Clemson has crazy ball pressure and has already won some big road games this year.

Over 127 Purdue / Illinois

Blog Update

And I am back. I apologize for the radio silence but I had a lot of stuff going on. I will be back posting my plays everyday again. As conference play begins, certain days of the week (aka Friday and Sunday) will be light on games while other days will have tons of games (Saturday). Here is to a profitable run to March.

-JD

Picks 12/6/08

Huge card today. There are so many games and lots of good lines. Here is what i have so far:

Gonzaga Over 137.5

Duke -9.5

Northwestern -6


BC -4.0

Penn State -6

ND -3


Miami +2

Results 12/4/08

0 Wins, 1 Loss, 0 Pushes

Texas looked like an easy cover at the end of the first half. Unfortunately they play two halves.

12/3/04 Results

4 Wins; 3 Loses; 0 Pushes

Got beat by the hook in the Siena game and was really close to hedging out of the FSU bet at half by playing Northwestern -2 for the 3 point middle.

Real small card tomorrow. Only thing that jumped out at me was Texas -6 vs UCLA. Texas is very good on defense and UCLA still has not found their offensive groove. Texas should win this by 9 - 12.

Picks 12/3/08

Sorry no time for write-ups:


Maryland Total Over 127.5
UMASS -1.5 (top play at some point you need to nut up and beat inferior teams)
North Carolina -10
Florida Sate +2
Siena -7.5
UAB Total Over 130.5
Auburn +14.5

Results 12/2/08

1 Win, 5 Loses; 0 Pushes

And the blood bath continues; just how I wanted to start the new month. An animal throwing darts at wall would have better results. Big slate of games today, at first glance I have about a dozen leans and I am know going through those games in depth.

Picks 12/2/08 -Adds

I am adding Purdue -2 over Duke. From the games I have watched these teams are very similar. Give me the one at home. This is the first real road game of the year for Duke and I expect Purdue to be fired up and shoot well from beyond the arch.

Time to kick off December. I have a full card today and may be adding some more games. I will have a play on the Duke / Purdue game, so check back for that one. So far it is a total's day:

South Carolina @ Princeton - Line: Over / Under 126

We can thank Fordham for some value here. In their last game Princeton won at Fordham 73 -61 going over the posted total of 119.5. That score had a lot more to do with Fordham's asstastic defense then some new found Priceton offense. Princeton plays so slow and South Carolina's defense should be good enough to make them run late into the shot clock. That Fordham game was the only time all season that Princeton scored over 55 and I see no reason why they will get over that total tonight. With Princeton scoring 55 that would mean South Carolina would need to score over 76 to go over the total. Sure they average 83 a game but this game is on the road and Princeton's D is only giving up 54.

The Pick: Go with the Under 126 in the Princeton game

Troy @ Dayton - Line Over / Under 143.5

Let down city here. Dayton is coming off of a major upset win at Marquette. It is usually a good spot to fade a team coming off of an upset when they follow with a team they should "easily" beat. The problem with the side is that Troy is pretty bad so I am looking to the total for the let down play. Dayton has been very good defensively this year only giving up 52.7 a game and playing at Dayton is a tough place to play. Dayton has a very good home crowd. Even if Dayton is not focused on this game, Troy should find it hard pressed to put a lot of points on the board. I expect Dayton to come out flat, for there to be a real sloppy slow scoring first half, followed by Dayton pulling away late to maybe cover the side maybe not cover the side but stay under the total. 143.5 is a decently high total. Even if Dayton got to 80 (I am thinking 70), Troy would need to get to 63.5against a team giving up 43 ppg at home.

The Pick: Dayton total to go under 143.5

Villanova @ UPENN - Line: Nova -13

Nova is a terrible matchup for Penn. Penn is a poor rebounding team and will struggle on the board against Nova but they will have even more problems with Nova's backcourt. Penn's guards struggled with Drexel's pressure defense and Nova's guards are a lot more athletic and talented. Nova won this game last season by 26 and returned their team in tact this season. The game is @ Penn but Nova usually plays a couple games a year at the Palestra so they are used to the court.

The Pick: Nova -13

Ohio St @ Miami - Line: Over / Under 131

Ohio State plays a real slow style game and is only giving up 40.3 ppg. Granted those games were not against teams as talented as Miami so that number is skewed but what is not skewed is that Ohio St has only averaged 63 ppg scored playing at home agianst inferior teams. Mami's Defense has been fairly good this year. The only game they struggled defensivily was against UCONN but Ohio St does not have a big man as talented as Thabeet. I expect this game to be played in 115 - 125 range.

The Pick: Ohio St / Miami Uner 131

Iowa @ Boston College - Line: Over / Under 130.5

Both of these teams have very good offensive efficiency's coupled with so so defense. BC's Tyrese Rice has really been heating up and I expect him to continue that at home. Also of note is that both of these teams get to the line 20+ times a game which really helps extend a game. I expect the winner of this game to get to 70 with the loser in the 60s. 70+60 gets us to 130 so as long as that 60 is a 61 that leads to a cover.

The Pick: Over 130.5 Iowa @ BC

Please no more OT in games where I pick the under!

Picks 12/1/08

Goodbye November! Here are the picks for the first day of a winning month:

There are none. Today is a small card and nothing jumps out at me. I have a couple leans like Kent St or the under in the Drexel game but nothing I feel really good about. I could see the Kansas game under as well.

Come back tomorrow.