BYU Over 159.5
Baylor Over 163
3 years ago
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Picks 1/31/09 - Games Before 2PM
1-1 yesterday. Once again, I am not sure if I will have a POD pick given that I break the Sat card down in pieces. Here are my plays for the games starting before 2PM:
West Virginia @ Louisville - Under 131
The only other games before 2pm that I may have plays on are the Xavier - Umass and Miss St - Miss games. I locked in the Under now because I think the line will drop 1 -2 points.
West Virginia @ Louisville - Under 131
The only other games before 2pm that I may have plays on are the Xavier - Umass and Miss St - Miss games. I locked in the Under now because I think the line will drop 1 -2 points.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Another 1/28/09 Play
Indiana @ Northwestern Under 122
Should be my last play of the day; still looking at the Kansas St game.
Should be my last play of the day; still looking at the Kansas St game.
Picks 1/28/09
POD - Akron -6
The rest:
Wake Forrest +2
Akron vs Toledo Under 123
Nova vs Pitt Under 136
Drexel vs Georgia St Under 116.5
I might have 2 other total plays on the Indiana game and Tulsa game.
The rest:
Wake Forrest +2
Akron vs Toledo Under 123
Nova vs Pitt Under 136
Drexel vs Georgia St Under 116.5
I might have 2 other total plays on the Indiana game and Tulsa game.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Picks 1/27/09
1-1 last night. Here is what I have for today:
POD - Baylor -1: I could be wrong here (look at my record I have been wrong a lot) but I really like Baylor in this spot. I am surprised by the betting splits on this one. Texas is a bit overrated in my book. They struggle to score at times, are a bad free throw shooting team, and only have two players (Abrams and James) who can hit 3's (James has been a bit inconsistent from long range too). They do play good defense but they have given up some points when they have played good offensive teams which Baylor is. Baylor is at home and I think they pull this one off.
Rest of my plays:
Miami -2
Kentucky -9 (TO's is the Achilles heel of this team but I don't see Mississippi being able to force a lot)
Eastern Kentucky -3
Eastern Kentucky vs Austin Peay Over 142 (bought the hook)
I might have a play on the Baylor total as well. I am leaning over because Texas should be able to score in the paint against Baylor just need to figure out how confident I am they can get over 70.
POD - Baylor -1: I could be wrong here (look at my record I have been wrong a lot) but I really like Baylor in this spot. I am surprised by the betting splits on this one. Texas is a bit overrated in my book. They struggle to score at times, are a bad free throw shooting team, and only have two players (Abrams and James) who can hit 3's (James has been a bit inconsistent from long range too). They do play good defense but they have given up some points when they have played good offensive teams which Baylor is. Baylor is at home and I think they pull this one off.
Rest of my plays:
Miami -2
Kentucky -9 (TO's is the Achilles heel of this team but I don't see Mississippi being able to force a lot)
Eastern Kentucky -3
Eastern Kentucky vs Austin Peay Over 142 (bought the hook)
I might have a play on the Baylor total as well. I am leaning over because Texas should be able to score in the paint against Baylor just need to figure out how confident I am they can get over 70.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Picks 1/26/09
Today's plays are as follows:
POD: Akron -5 - Turnovers will be the key in this one.
Samford -6 - Situational play
POD: Akron -5 - Turnovers will be the key in this one.
Samford -6 - Situational play
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Picks 1/25/08 - Adds
Syracuse not hitting any 3's is not good for business. Ok here are my other plays:
POD : Central Florida -7
Miami -6.5
What's up with that Pitt line. WV should find 2nd chance points much harder to come by in this one yet they are favored. Probably going to lay off of it.
POD : Central Florida -7
Miami -6.5
What's up with that Pitt line. WV should find 2nd chance points much harder to come by in this one yet they are favored. Probably going to lay off of it.
Picks 1/25/09
First pick Syracuse -1. I just can't see Louisville shooting over the Orangmen's zone.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
1/23/09 Picks - 3pm Games
POD - Kentucky -6: Bama was able to win against Mississippi without Steele but Ole Miss is more depleted than Bama is. Kentucky is so good defensively and should feast on a team that now is in search for a floor leader.
Also:
College of Charleston -5.5
Also:
College of Charleston -5.5
Picks 1/24/09 - Some early games
I am not sure if I will have a POD pick since I am capping this huge card piecemeal by time. Here are the early plays that I have so far locked in:
Arkansas -4.5: Auburn is a better team than people think but I still like Arkansas to cover this line. They have been very good at home only losing 1 game and should be motivated to get their first conference win. Lately they have been losing games because they have been outscored from beyond the arch and on the free throw line but Auburn is not very good from 3 (32.3%) and somehow manages to shoot worse from the free line than Arkansas.
Texas Tech ("TT") @ Missouri Over 158: At first I was looking at TT plus the points as this game could be a bit of let down spot for Missouri following a good road win @ Oklahoma St. However, I am concerned that TT might turn the ball over too much with Missouri's pressure D which could lead to a blowout. So instead I am turning to the over. Both of these teams play really fast so the pace should be torrid in this game. TT gave up 85 to TCU, 111 to Stanford, 96 to UTEP, and 116 to East Central. An argument can be made (and an easy one at that) that Missouri is better offensively than any of those teams and they should get over 90 in this game. That leaves 70 needed from TT which they should be able to get since Missouri gives up 65 a game and the pace of this one will be quicker than their average opponent.
Delaware vs Georgia St Over 125: Both of these teams play bad defense. This game features two teams with different styles. Delaware prefers to push the ball while Georgia St would rather play in the half court. Delaware has played at least 7 games against teams that prefer a slower pace and all but 2 (Northeastern and Old Dominion ) have gone over the posted total of 125. Well, Northeastern and Old Dominion play much better defense that Georgia St. In these games Delaware's pace has won out because they push the ball when they have it and play such bad defense the other team scores on them earlier in the shot clock.
Arkansas -4.5: Auburn is a better team than people think but I still like Arkansas to cover this line. They have been very good at home only losing 1 game and should be motivated to get their first conference win. Lately they have been losing games because they have been outscored from beyond the arch and on the free throw line but Auburn is not very good from 3 (32.3%) and somehow manages to shoot worse from the free line than Arkansas.
Texas Tech ("TT") @ Missouri Over 158: At first I was looking at TT plus the points as this game could be a bit of let down spot for Missouri following a good road win @ Oklahoma St. However, I am concerned that TT might turn the ball over too much with Missouri's pressure D which could lead to a blowout. So instead I am turning to the over. Both of these teams play really fast so the pace should be torrid in this game. TT gave up 85 to TCU, 111 to Stanford, 96 to UTEP, and 116 to East Central. An argument can be made (and an easy one at that) that Missouri is better offensively than any of those teams and they should get over 90 in this game. That leaves 70 needed from TT which they should be able to get since Missouri gives up 65 a game and the pace of this one will be quicker than their average opponent.
Delaware vs Georgia St Over 125: Both of these teams play bad defense. This game features two teams with different styles. Delaware prefers to push the ball while Georgia St would rather play in the half court. Delaware has played at least 7 games against teams that prefer a slower pace and all but 2 (Northeastern and Old Dominion ) have gone over the posted total of 125. Well, Northeastern and Old Dominion play much better defense that Georgia St. In these games Delaware's pace has won out because they push the ball when they have it and play such bad defense the other team scores on them earlier in the shot clock.
Moneyline
Ah, Moneyline I knew it was only a matter of time before you came after me. I will be the first to admit that I was wrong about Georgetown rebounding performance in that game. I really thought WV would struggle with Monroe's length. I deserved your post so I am not going to try and refute what you wrote because you are right.
The issue I have is that you like to go around deciding who is a "square" when it can be easily be argued that you are one. Let's take a look at your results from 2007-2008:
The issue I have is that you like to go around deciding who is a "square" when it can be easily be argued that you are one. Let's take a look at your results from 2007-2008:
- NFL: 70-70-3
- CFB: 97-76-4
- NBA: 99-84-4
- CBB: 185-179
- MLB: 411-432
- Euro 2008: 11-11-2
- Tennis: 0-5
- Olympic Hoops: 11-7
- Total: 884-864-18
- Win Percentage 50.57%
With 10% juice and a standard bet size; a 50.57% winning percentage equates to a losing season. The only reason you were up (and you were up substantially last season so kudos) was because you varied your betting units. Now if you actually updated your 2008-2009 record (which I am sure would be updated if you were replicating last seasons success this year) I bet there is a good chance your results are worse than your winning percentage this year and your varying bet sizes are compounding your loses. Just because you have a formula you stick too, a bunch of followers, and one good year of results doesn't mean your not a square.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Picks 1/22/09
Here are the games I have locked in:
Play of the Day – UCLA -4.5: Washington St plays good defense but so does UCLA. Washington St has struggled with athletic teams (except Oregon but they have no discipline which is needed due to the methodical nature of Washington St on both ends of the court) and UCLA has some athletes. This game could be ugly to watch but Washington St is so bad on offense that I would e shocked if they hit 55 pts in this game (45 to 50 would be my bet). Had UCLA won its last game against Arizona St I might be a bit concerned of a let-down but I love them in this spot coming off a loss and expect them to be focused and really take it to Washington St (especially in the 2nd half).
Next 2 favorite plays:
Georgetown -5: I think the UCONN game is a pretty good comp for how this game should play out. Both teams will struggle to score (but more so West Virginia) and Georgetown will pull away late for an 8 -10 pt win. I expect Georgetown to win the battle of the boards and Monroe should have his way in this affair.
Dayton -4.5: GW is just a bad team and they have struggled to score at times against good defensive teams which Dayton is. Dayton has struggled on the road this year, thus the line, but GW will not be able to put up the points needed to keep this close.
The rest:
Utah St -4
Georgetown - West Virginia Under 133.5
Washington – USC Over 135
I am looking at the Wright St – Illinois Loyola Under 114.5 and Portland -10. Also a small lean on St. Johns
Play of the Day – UCLA -4.5: Washington St plays good defense but so does UCLA. Washington St has struggled with athletic teams (except Oregon but they have no discipline which is needed due to the methodical nature of Washington St on both ends of the court) and UCLA has some athletes. This game could be ugly to watch but Washington St is so bad on offense that I would e shocked if they hit 55 pts in this game (45 to 50 would be my bet). Had UCLA won its last game against Arizona St I might be a bit concerned of a let-down but I love them in this spot coming off a loss and expect them to be focused and really take it to Washington St (especially in the 2nd half).
Next 2 favorite plays:
Georgetown -5: I think the UCONN game is a pretty good comp for how this game should play out. Both teams will struggle to score (but more so West Virginia) and Georgetown will pull away late for an 8 -10 pt win. I expect Georgetown to win the battle of the boards and Monroe should have his way in this affair.
Dayton -4.5: GW is just a bad team and they have struggled to score at times against good defensive teams which Dayton is. Dayton has struggled on the road this year, thus the line, but GW will not be able to put up the points needed to keep this close.
The rest:
Utah St -4
Georgetown - West Virginia Under 133.5
Washington – USC Over 135
I am looking at the Wright St – Illinois Loyola Under 114.5 and Portland -10. Also a small lean on St. Johns
Juice Juice and more Juice
Results for 1/20/09:
4 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Pushes
Another day and another .500 record. I got burnt on my total plays again. I am thinking of adding a new feature which will be my Play of the Day. I will of course keep track of the POD record on the side of the site. I am still in the process of caping today's card. I have locked in a few plays and will be posting these later.
4 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Pushes
Another day and another .500 record. I got burnt on my total plays again. I am thinking of adding a new feature which will be my Play of the Day. I will of course keep track of the POD record on the side of the site. I am still in the process of caping today's card. I have locked in a few plays and will be posting these later.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Picks 1/21/09
I have to be somewhere @ 1pm so no time for writeups. Big card so I have a number of plays:
Xavier -12 (bought the hook)
Buffalo -2.5
Central Florida -3
Oklahoma St -1
Baylor +3.5
Wisconsin -3
Florida / South Carolina Over 151.5
Mississippi / Alabama Under 144
I have a lean on Virgina Tech plus the points (I am waiting to see how high they go) and the Under in the Old Dominion game (again I am waiting to see if the total moves up since I would like to see 145).
Xavier -12 (bought the hook)
Buffalo -2.5
Central Florida -3
Oklahoma St -1
Baylor +3.5
Wisconsin -3
Florida / South Carolina Over 151.5
Mississippi / Alabama Under 144
I have a lean on Virgina Tech plus the points (I am waiting to see how high they go) and the Under in the Old Dominion game (again I am waiting to see if the total moves up since I would like to see 145).
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Last Game 1/20/09
Tennessee @ Vanderbuilt 2nd Half UNDER 75 - There was a lot of good defense in the first half and neither team shoots very well from behind the arch.
1/20/09 Add
Northern Illinois -5
That is my only play for the 8 o'clock games. May still have some plays on the 9pm games.
That is my only play for the 8 o'clock games. May still have some plays on the 9pm games.
Picks 1/20/09 - Round 1
Here are the first group of picks:
Illinois -8
Boston College +2.5
Drexel vs Delaware Under 127
Illinois -8
Boston College +2.5
Drexel vs Delaware Under 127
Monday, January 19, 2009
Picks 1/19/09
Pitt vs Cuse Under 147: Syracuse is coming off of a track meet and Pitt just had a tough physical game against Louisville so both this teams might not have their legs on a short rest. Pitt is the best defensive team the Cuse will have faced and think they will slow this down and control the pace.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Saturday, January 17, 2009
More plays
Penn St -5: Fade of Indiana
Drexel -7: Unc-W will struggle with the Drexel perimeter D
Drexel @ UNC-W: Under 140.5
Drexel -7: Unc-W will struggle with the Drexel perimeter D
Drexel @ UNC-W: Under 140.5
Add Florida State -4
Maryland is not playing that well as of late and is coming off a crushing loss @ Miami. They struggle with interior size and athleticism which FSU has and should find it hard to score in this game.
Picks Sat 1/17/09
Massive card today. Counting totals there are 190 different possible bets that can be made. I am going to post what I have locked in now and will continue to post additional plays as I make them.
Northeastern -3: Northeastern is red hot and just beat this team by 23 pts a couple weeks ago and nothing unusual (aka 75% 3pt shooting) occurred in the first meeting.
Georgetown +9: Duke should find it much harder to rebound in this game. The recipe to beating Duke the last several years is athleticism which Georgetown has. This line should be 5 not 9.
Duke vs Georgetown Over 137
Butler -3: Both of these teams play a little faster than their stats dictate and Illinois Chicago's defense leaves much to be desired. Butler is just the much better team and has Illinois Chicago has already lost 3 home games this year to teams less talented than Butler. Butler should be able to get to 70 in this game and I don't see IC being able to keep up as they take bad shots sometimes.
Arkansas +10.5: Florida is not good enough defensively to cover this spread. They will once again get killed on the glass and Washington should have his way in the paint against the Gators. Both teams like to run so this should be a track meet.
BYU -1.5: New Mexico is overrated. I have watched them several times on Full Court and they just do not impress me. BYU won this game on the road last year as well to a much better NM team.
Texas -6: I don't see this game being close at all. Texas will be the best defensive team TT has played all year. Texas' biggest problem this year has been putting the ball in the basket but TT sucks on the defensive end so it should not be an issue in this game.
Pittsburgh +2: Louisville has yet to prove they can hit shots from the outside but have been making a living in the lane and on the glass lately. I don;t see those same points being there today as Pitt is one of the best rebounding teams I have seen this year.
Nebraska -2: Nebraska has been very good at home and they really defend. Kansas St has been headed in the other direction lately and their guards should struggle with the atmosphere and on the ball pressure.
Michigan -3.5: Without Lighty, Ohio St should struggle to score against Michigan's zone. Mullins is a freshmen so this will be the first time he sees this defense. Michigan has also been very good at home this year.
Davidson -12: Value has been created because Davidson has not been able to cover the 20 pt spreads they have been facing. Georgia Southern sucks defensively so Curry should have no problems filling up the stat sheet in this one.
That is it for now. I still have another 10 or so more leans so expect more plays.
Northeastern -3: Northeastern is red hot and just beat this team by 23 pts a couple weeks ago and nothing unusual (aka 75% 3pt shooting) occurred in the first meeting.
Georgetown +9: Duke should find it much harder to rebound in this game. The recipe to beating Duke the last several years is athleticism which Georgetown has. This line should be 5 not 9.
Duke vs Georgetown Over 137
Butler -3: Both of these teams play a little faster than their stats dictate and Illinois Chicago's defense leaves much to be desired. Butler is just the much better team and has Illinois Chicago has already lost 3 home games this year to teams less talented than Butler. Butler should be able to get to 70 in this game and I don't see IC being able to keep up as they take bad shots sometimes.
Arkansas +10.5: Florida is not good enough defensively to cover this spread. They will once again get killed on the glass and Washington should have his way in the paint against the Gators. Both teams like to run so this should be a track meet.
BYU -1.5: New Mexico is overrated. I have watched them several times on Full Court and they just do not impress me. BYU won this game on the road last year as well to a much better NM team.
Texas -6: I don't see this game being close at all. Texas will be the best defensive team TT has played all year. Texas' biggest problem this year has been putting the ball in the basket but TT sucks on the defensive end so it should not be an issue in this game.
Pittsburgh +2: Louisville has yet to prove they can hit shots from the outside but have been making a living in the lane and on the glass lately. I don;t see those same points being there today as Pitt is one of the best rebounding teams I have seen this year.
Nebraska -2: Nebraska has been very good at home and they really defend. Kansas St has been headed in the other direction lately and their guards should struggle with the atmosphere and on the ball pressure.
Michigan -3.5: Without Lighty, Ohio St should struggle to score against Michigan's zone. Mullins is a freshmen so this will be the first time he sees this defense. Michigan has also been very good at home this year.
Davidson -12: Value has been created because Davidson has not been able to cover the 20 pt spreads they have been facing. Georgia Southern sucks defensively so Curry should have no problems filling up the stat sheet in this one.
That is it for now. I still have another 10 or so more leans so expect more plays.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Picks 1/15/09
Here are today's picks:
Florida Atlantic -4: Florida International is winless on the road and I have surprisingly watched both of these teams and think Florida Atlantic will put too many points on the board for FI.
Purdue -4: Purdue guards the 3 really well and Northwestern has to have it to win. Northwestern is a system team and if you can take that away they are done.
Rider -3: Rider has owned this series and I don’t think Canisus will be able to keep up with Rider.
Wisconsin minus XX: The line is -6.5 right now but I am waiting to hopefully get 6.
Wisc's defense will be too much for Minny. Unlike Iowa, however, they will be able to put some points on the board while they clamp down on the Gophers
Western Kentucky -3 (I bought the hook): Western Kentucky has been money at home and should win the rebounding battle in this game which I always feel is critical.
Butler @ Loyola Chicago Over 122: Loyola-Chicago has not been nearly as good defensively against good teams which Butler is. Butler should be able to get to 65 in this game. Butler's strength defensively is taking away the 3 pt shot but Loyola does not rely on the 3 to put up points.
That's it for now. Here are the rest of my leans:
UNC -15.5 (they should be pissed and throttle Virginia)
Over 105 in the Oregon St vs Washington St (Maybe I am sucker but it is really hard to stay under this number)
Santa Clara +20 @ Gonzaga (SC is not a bad team)
Pepperdine +19 @ San Deigo (San Diego has not been able to cover a line this big all year)
Arizona St -1 @ California (ASU has really impressed me this year)
Florida Atlantic -4: Florida International is winless on the road and I have surprisingly watched both of these teams and think Florida Atlantic will put too many points on the board for FI.
Purdue -4: Purdue guards the 3 really well and Northwestern has to have it to win. Northwestern is a system team and if you can take that away they are done.
Rider -3: Rider has owned this series and I don’t think Canisus will be able to keep up with Rider.
Wisconsin minus XX: The line is -6.5 right now but I am waiting to hopefully get 6.
Wisc's defense will be too much for Minny. Unlike Iowa, however, they will be able to put some points on the board while they clamp down on the Gophers
Western Kentucky -3 (I bought the hook): Western Kentucky has been money at home and should win the rebounding battle in this game which I always feel is critical.
Butler @ Loyola Chicago Over 122: Loyola-Chicago has not been nearly as good defensively against good teams which Butler is. Butler should be able to get to 65 in this game. Butler's strength defensively is taking away the 3 pt shot but Loyola does not rely on the 3 to put up points.
That's it for now. Here are the rest of my leans:
UNC -15.5 (they should be pissed and throttle Virginia)
Over 105 in the Oregon St vs Washington St (Maybe I am sucker but it is really hard to stay under this number)
Santa Clara +20 @ Gonzaga (SC is not a bad team)
Pepperdine +19 @ San Deigo (San Diego has not been able to cover a line this big all year)
Arizona St -1 @ California (ASU has really impressed me this year)
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
2nd Half Play
Pitt Game under 72 2nd half bet - The 3pt shooting was insane in the first half of this game and we have a 19 middle opportunity so I am going to take it.
Picks 1/14/08 - Cont
Here is the next set of Picks:
Wake Forrest -3.5
George Mason @ William Mary - Over 119.5
Pitt @ UCF - Over 131
Arkansas +2
I don't have time for writeups but as much as I hate to take an untested road team Arkansas they will not allow Mississippi o rebound and get the same easy points in the paint that Florida did.
I am still looking at Cuse +6.5, St Louis -3.5 (Their perimeter defense should give UMASS fits), Illinois -7, and Duquesne -10.5.
Not sure how many, if any I will play.
Wake Forrest -3.5
George Mason @ William Mary - Over 119.5
Pitt @ UCF - Over 131
Arkansas +2
I don't have time for writeups but as much as I hate to take an untested road team Arkansas they will not allow Mississippi o rebound and get the same easy points in the paint that Florida did.
I am still looking at Cuse +6.5, St Louis -3.5 (Their perimeter defense should give UMASS fits), Illinois -7, and Duquesne -10.5.
Not sure how many, if any I will play.
Results 1/13/09
4 Wins; 2 Loses; 0 Pushes
Just to clarify that Indiana bet was on the 2nd half total. The leans on Kentucky and the Kansas Over turned to be winners but 4-2 will do. How good was Jodie Meeks tonight? One of the best single handed performances I have seen.
Tomorrow's card is pretty big so lots of capping to do.
*EDIT* - I just realized I typed the wrong date in the header for some of the picks on the 13th.
Just to clarify that Indiana bet was on the 2nd half total. The leans on Kentucky and the Kansas Over turned to be winners but 4-2 will do. How good was Jodie Meeks tonight? One of the best single handed performances I have seen.
Tomorrow's card is pretty big so lots of capping to do.
*EDIT* - I just realized I typed the wrong date in the header for some of the picks on the 13th.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Last Add for 1/9/09
I am adding the Over 140.5 in the BYU vs TCU game. I have watched TCU play and they are a little weak on the defensive side and seem to like to push the ball. BYU averages 80 ppg so I see no reason why they will not hit 80 tonight. TCU is goof enough on offense to chip in the other 61 needed for the over.
1/19/09 Additional Pick
I am adding the Under 68 in the Indiana - Ohio St game. The score is already out of hand so the scoring at the end should be slow and Ohio St shot 11 of 16 from beyond the arch which I doubt will continue.
Picks 1/13/09
Here are tonight's picks:
Bradley -3: Harry Marshall (Indiana St's best player) is most likely not playing for Indiana St and I think this is a good spot to fade them after a huge upset win over Illinois St. Throw in the fact that Bradley is the better team I think this is a good play.
North Carolina St -4: I think this is a tough spot for Florida St. They are coming off a loss against Duke and now are on the road playing an underrated NC State team. Beating Duke is a huge deal for FSU and their fans and the Seminoles exerted a lot of effort to get back into that game but still came away losers. NC State had played a number of good teams real close but they are lacking tourney resume worthy win and I expect them to be highly motivated to get their first "good" win of the season.
Kansas -6: I was not going to bet this game but the line has dropped to -6 at the Greek so I made the play. Kansas is not even close to as good as last year but they are a much better team at home and have played well off of a loss. This will be only Kansas St's 2nd road game of the year and I don't think this team is as good as their record.
Tulsa + XX: The line is currently Tulsa +6.5 but I am waiting this out as I think I should be able to get at least +7 since the public is pounding Memphis. Tulsa is a good team that has plays above average defense. Memphis is coming off of a tougher than expected win @ UCF while Tulsa is coming off of two very good road wins. Memphis has been beating the piss out of Conference USA for 2 years and Tulsa will be highly motivated to win this game. The more I watch Memphis the more convinced I get that are really poorly coached this year and I think this is a good spot to fade them.
I have leans to Kentucky plus the points (but this line keeps dropping), the Kansas over, and the BYU over. Check back later to see if I have any additional plays.
Bradley -3: Harry Marshall (Indiana St's best player) is most likely not playing for Indiana St and I think this is a good spot to fade them after a huge upset win over Illinois St. Throw in the fact that Bradley is the better team I think this is a good play.
North Carolina St -4: I think this is a tough spot for Florida St. They are coming off a loss against Duke and now are on the road playing an underrated NC State team. Beating Duke is a huge deal for FSU and their fans and the Seminoles exerted a lot of effort to get back into that game but still came away losers. NC State had played a number of good teams real close but they are lacking tourney resume worthy win and I expect them to be highly motivated to get their first "good" win of the season.
Kansas -6: I was not going to bet this game but the line has dropped to -6 at the Greek so I made the play. Kansas is not even close to as good as last year but they are a much better team at home and have played well off of a loss. This will be only Kansas St's 2nd road game of the year and I don't think this team is as good as their record.
Tulsa + XX: The line is currently Tulsa +6.5 but I am waiting this out as I think I should be able to get at least +7 since the public is pounding Memphis. Tulsa is a good team that has plays above average defense. Memphis is coming off of a tougher than expected win @ UCF while Tulsa is coming off of two very good road wins. Memphis has been beating the piss out of Conference USA for 2 years and Tulsa will be highly motivated to win this game. The more I watch Memphis the more convinced I get that are really poorly coached this year and I think this is a good spot to fade them.
I have leans to Kentucky plus the points (but this line keeps dropping), the Kansas over, and the BYU over. Check back later to see if I have any additional plays.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Results 1/11/09
11 Wins; 5 Loses; 1 Push
Man these big Saturday cards are rough. There are so many games to cap it takes a ton of time. No complaints on the results.
Tomorrow's card has 20 games so expect fewer plays.
-JD
Man these big Saturday cards are rough. There are so many games to cap it takes a ton of time. No complaints on the results.
Tomorrow's card has 20 games so expect fewer plays.
-JD
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Last 2 Picks
Boise St -9.5 : Hawaii is bad on the road (travel) and Boise is a tough place to play. Boise already won at Hawaii by 12 earlier.
Utah St Pick Em : They have played well on the road and I am continuing to fade New Mexico St who plays zero defense and is not as good offensively as in the past.
Utah St Pick Em : They have played well on the road and I am continuing to fade New Mexico St who plays zero defense and is not as good offensively as in the past.
Creighton -2
I am expecting a let down for Bradley following the big win over than undefeated Illinois State. I have seen Creighton play on TV and in person and they play very good pressure defense. They also rely on the 3 ball and Bradley's 3-point defense is average at best.
ADD Another
Western Kentucky - 3.5 : This line would be at least -6 has Wk won their last game against Florida International (they lost by 2) but FI shot the ball really well despite being a bad scoring/shooting team. WK is already in Florida so the travel is a non issue and I expect them to rebound and avoid their 2nd non-conference loss.
Additional Plays
Appalachia St - 13.5 : This will be Greensboro's third straight road game. 9 of their 11 loses have been by double figures. They struggle to score and are better suited for a slower pace game but App State is comfortable running and has shot the ball better at home than on the road.
Drexel +1.5 : Drexel guards the perimeter really well and GS has small guards which is key (large guards have given Drexel some problems).
SDSU -3.5 : Utah has not been a good road team and SDSU is a tough place to play.
Drexel +1.5 : Drexel guards the perimeter really well and GS has small guards which is key (large guards have given Drexel some problems).
SDSU -3.5 : Utah has not been a good road team and SDSU is a tough place to play.
2 PM ADD
Rhode Island +1 : SJU has struggled with RI in the past. RI has already played a couple games at the Palestra and SJU's 3-point defense has been trash this year. Nivens should have his way inside but RI's ability to press SJU's guards and their sketchy ball handling skills should be enough for the win.
ADDS
Baylor -12 (bought the hook) : TT plays no defense and Baylor is to athletic for Tech. Baylor has struggled defensively a bit against other athletic teams but TT is not one of those teams.
I have a lean on Oak but have not made it a play yet.
I have a lean on Oak but have not made it a play yet.
Picks 1/10/08
Huge card today. 90 games had lines. I have narrowed the list to 30 and I am focusing in on those. Not sure how many plays I will end up with so keep checking back. Here is what I have so far:
Marquette -2 : West Virginia is coming off of a physical / emotional game with UCONN. Marquette can play both a quick pace and slow pace game so even if WVU is able to dictate the pace Marquette should still be able to pull this out at home.
Michigan St -6.5 : Kansas is a young road team who does not shoot that great and has to work inside out which they will not be able to do here. They have not been stellar on the road and MSU has really impressed me as they both rebound well and can shoot from outside the arch. I think MSU wins by at least 10 here.
East Carolina +7 : EC has played a tough schedule and Marshall has an inflated record with their only respectable win being Old Dominion (a 4 pts win @ home). Marshall just played San Diego and Memphis on the road and could have a bit of a hangover from those tough games.
BYU -9.5 : BYU is a much better team that has played well on the road and neutral sites.
UCONN -8.5 : UCONN will own the glass in this one. Cincy is going in the wrong direction and when they lose the rebounding ("RB") battle they lose the game. They are 16th in nation in RB margin and get a lot of second chance points from O Boards. UCONN, however, is 1st in RB margin and will take this away from them.
Delaware -6.5 : NC-Wilmington is real bad and beat up and Delaware likes to play fast so they will have no problem with the tempo of this game. The line has moved to -5.5 since a put the bet in but I still see a 10 - 15 pt win for the Blue Hens.
That is it for now many more to follow.
Marquette -2 : West Virginia is coming off of a physical / emotional game with UCONN. Marquette can play both a quick pace and slow pace game so even if WVU is able to dictate the pace Marquette should still be able to pull this out at home.
Michigan St -6.5 : Kansas is a young road team who does not shoot that great and has to work inside out which they will not be able to do here. They have not been stellar on the road and MSU has really impressed me as they both rebound well and can shoot from outside the arch. I think MSU wins by at least 10 here.
East Carolina +7 : EC has played a tough schedule and Marshall has an inflated record with their only respectable win being Old Dominion (a 4 pts win @ home). Marshall just played San Diego and Memphis on the road and could have a bit of a hangover from those tough games.
BYU -9.5 : BYU is a much better team that has played well on the road and neutral sites.
UCONN -8.5 : UCONN will own the glass in this one. Cincy is going in the wrong direction and when they lose the rebounding ("RB") battle they lose the game. They are 16th in nation in RB margin and get a lot of second chance points from O Boards. UCONN, however, is 1st in RB margin and will take this away from them.
Delaware -6.5 : NC-Wilmington is real bad and beat up and Delaware likes to play fast so they will have no problem with the tempo of this game. The line has moved to -5.5 since a put the bet in but I still see a 10 - 15 pt win for the Blue Hens.
That is it for now many more to follow.
Friday, January 9, 2009
No Picks 1/9/08
Sorry I have no picks today. The card is real small and I do not see anything I really like. I was hoping the Siena vs. Rider total would be 145 or less and I would play the over but the line is at 150.5 so it is a no play. Rather than try and force bets tonight I am just going to start capping tomorrow's action as there are 130+ games tomorrow.
I would also like to thank The Stock Lemon for their show of support with the Vegas Watch listing my blog in their fade section. Make sure to check out his blog Stock Lemon.
In my first and second posts I warned that things might be rough at the start of the season given my capping style. From my post 11/12/08:
“I would like to point out that I use a number of techniques in capping CBB games but watching games is very important for my style. The more teams and games I have watched the better my handicapping gets. Naturally this is very tough early in the season (since no one has played yet) so I have to lean way more heavily on statistics than I will later in the season. So, if I start out cold please stick with with me and continue to check out my blog because in the past I have gotten much stronger as the season has worn on.”
For someone who “looks at the sports world from a statistical and analytical perspective” you would think Vegas Watch would afford me the opportunity of generating a reasonable sample size of a season worth of picks before listing my plays as fades.
-JD
I would also like to thank The Stock Lemon for their show of support with the Vegas Watch listing my blog in their fade section. Make sure to check out his blog Stock Lemon.
In my first and second posts I warned that things might be rough at the start of the season given my capping style. From my post 11/12/08:
“I would like to point out that I use a number of techniques in capping CBB games but watching games is very important for my style. The more teams and games I have watched the better my handicapping gets. Naturally this is very tough early in the season (since no one has played yet) so I have to lean way more heavily on statistics than I will later in the season. So, if I start out cold please stick with with me and continue to check out my blog because in the past I have gotten much stronger as the season has worn on.”
For someone who “looks at the sports world from a statistical and analytical perspective” you would think Vegas Watch would afford me the opportunity of generating a reasonable sample size of a season worth of picks before listing my plays as fades.
-JD
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Picks 1/7/09
According to Vegaswatch.net you should fade my picks. Only time will tell but I like my chances to turn a profit from here on out now that I have seen teams play. That UCONN game played out exactly how I thought it would (look at the write-up) but hey blindly betting against the public sure has worked out well this year for the contrarian sports bettors. Now for todays picks:
Davidson @ Duke - Line Duke -13.5
Pick - Duke -13.5: This is a real bad matchup for Davidson. Curry will have to drop 40 for a cover here and Duke will be all over him.
Michigan @ Indiana - Line Michigan -6.5
Pick - Michigan -6.5: Let me guess this is a sucker bet. Why else would the line be so low right? If it is a sucker bet well than call me a sucker. Indiana plays walkons who will not be able to deal with the 1-3-1 zone and do not have the athletes to push the ball to score before Michigan can setup. I don't think Indiana will be able to get over 60 in this game.
Depual @ Syracuse - Line Cuse -12.5
Pick - Cuse -12.5: Depaul can not shoot for shit and the last time they played a good zone (@ Northwestern) they scored 38 points. The Orangmen should bury this team early.
Harvard @ Boston College: - Line BC -18
Pick: Harvard +18. Looking for a hangover for BC following the big upset win over UNC. I doubt they are able to shoot the ball that well two games in a row.
Tulane @ East Carolina - Line East Carolina -7.5
Pick: East Carolina -7.5. East Carolina has been in a bit of a funk lately but they have been good at home and I think they may have turned the corner playing Clemson tough on Saturday. Tulane has only played 4 road games this year and has not shown up for any of those games.
Northwestern @ Wisconsin - Line Over/Under 118
Pick: Over 118. I am expecting a close game here (the line of +7 is tempting) and Northwestern shoots the 3 well enough to hit 60 in this game. Total should be finish up around 125 - 130.
Louisville @ South Florida - Line Over/Under 125
Pick: Over 125. South Florida is a guard oriented team so they should be able to handle Louisville's press better than the average team. Louisville has not been playing well so far but they are too talented to not win this game. Final score should be around 70 - 75 to 60 - 65.
That is for now. I have leans to the under in the Michigan game, Delaware plus the points, Drake minus 13.5, Wichita St -3.5, Evansville -8, and over 124 in the Tulsa game. Check back to see if I add any of these as official plays.
Davidson @ Duke - Line Duke -13.5
Pick - Duke -13.5: This is a real bad matchup for Davidson. Curry will have to drop 40 for a cover here and Duke will be all over him.
Michigan @ Indiana - Line Michigan -6.5
Pick - Michigan -6.5: Let me guess this is a sucker bet. Why else would the line be so low right? If it is a sucker bet well than call me a sucker. Indiana plays walkons who will not be able to deal with the 1-3-1 zone and do not have the athletes to push the ball to score before Michigan can setup. I don't think Indiana will be able to get over 60 in this game.
Depual @ Syracuse - Line Cuse -12.5
Pick - Cuse -12.5: Depaul can not shoot for shit and the last time they played a good zone (@ Northwestern) they scored 38 points. The Orangmen should bury this team early.
Harvard @ Boston College: - Line BC -18
Pick: Harvard +18. Looking for a hangover for BC following the big upset win over UNC. I doubt they are able to shoot the ball that well two games in a row.
Tulane @ East Carolina - Line East Carolina -7.5
Pick: East Carolina -7.5. East Carolina has been in a bit of a funk lately but they have been good at home and I think they may have turned the corner playing Clemson tough on Saturday. Tulane has only played 4 road games this year and has not shown up for any of those games.
Northwestern @ Wisconsin - Line Over/Under 118
Pick: Over 118. I am expecting a close game here (the line of +7 is tempting) and Northwestern shoots the 3 well enough to hit 60 in this game. Total should be finish up around 125 - 130.
Louisville @ South Florida - Line Over/Under 125
Pick: Over 125. South Florida is a guard oriented team so they should be able to handle Louisville's press better than the average team. Louisville has not been playing well so far but they are too talented to not win this game. Final score should be around 70 - 75 to 60 - 65.
That is for now. I have leans to the under in the Michigan game, Delaware plus the points, Drake minus 13.5, Wichita St -3.5, Evansville -8, and over 124 in the Tulsa game. Check back to see if I add any of these as official plays.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Results 1/6/08
3 Wins, 3 Loses, 0 Ties
I should have layed off of Purdue with Humell out. Also Arkansas is better than I thought they were. This could have been a much better night as my leans were 8-4, did a poor job narrowing the list down.
I should have layed off of Purdue with Humell out. Also Arkansas is better than I thought they were. This could have been a much better night as my leans were 8-4, did a poor job narrowing the list down.
Picks 1/6/08
Here are the picks I have locked in:
Miami Oh @ Dayton - Line: Dayton -6.5
Pick: Dayton -6.5 - One of Miami's leading scorers is out with a hand injury. These teams play a similar style but Dayton is a bit more athletic and plays really well at home.
UCONN @ West Virginia - Line WV -3.5
Pick: UCONN +3.5 - WV will get killed on the boards tonight much like they did at Ohio St. UCONN will not miss the same open looks that Ohio St did however, and should win this going away. Also from the WV games I have seen, they rely on a lot of put back buckets from offensive rebounds but I really expect them to struggle in the paint and they are mediocre 3 point shooting team.
Purdue @ Penn State - Line Purdue -2.5
Pick: Purdue -2.5 - I like that Purdue is coming off a tough home loss and I expect them to very focused. Also PSU just played a physical game @ Wisconsin. Purdue's defense should be could enough for them to win this game and get a late cover with FT's. I want to point out that Purdue's Hummell might not play this game.
LSU @ Utah - Line Utah -5
Pick: Utah -5 - This is LSU's first true road game of the year and Utah has been on a role as of late having recently beat Gonzaga at home. They followed that game with an impressive win against an underrated Wyoming team in what could have been a trap game. A Utah blowout and easy cover would not surprise me at all.
That is is for now. I am still looking at the sides for the Arkansas and New Mexico games. Additionally, most totals seem high to me tonight so I may have a few total plays as well.
Miami Oh @ Dayton - Line: Dayton -6.5
Pick: Dayton -6.5 - One of Miami's leading scorers is out with a hand injury. These teams play a similar style but Dayton is a bit more athletic and plays really well at home.
UCONN @ West Virginia - Line WV -3.5
Pick: UCONN +3.5 - WV will get killed on the boards tonight much like they did at Ohio St. UCONN will not miss the same open looks that Ohio St did however, and should win this going away. Also from the WV games I have seen, they rely on a lot of put back buckets from offensive rebounds but I really expect them to struggle in the paint and they are mediocre 3 point shooting team.
Purdue @ Penn State - Line Purdue -2.5
Pick: Purdue -2.5 - I like that Purdue is coming off a tough home loss and I expect them to very focused. Also PSU just played a physical game @ Wisconsin. Purdue's defense should be could enough for them to win this game and get a late cover with FT's. I want to point out that Purdue's Hummell might not play this game.
LSU @ Utah - Line Utah -5
Pick: Utah -5 - This is LSU's first true road game of the year and Utah has been on a role as of late having recently beat Gonzaga at home. They followed that game with an impressive win against an underrated Wyoming team in what could have been a trap game. A Utah blowout and easy cover would not surprise me at all.
That is is for now. I am still looking at the sides for the Arkansas and New Mexico games. Additionally, most totals seem high to me tonight so I may have a few total plays as well.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Results 1/5/09
6 Wins, 2 Loses, 0 Pushes
Idaho missed 2 free throws with 15 seconds left so the Utah St total ended up being 131 which just missed the middle (132 would have been good for a 6-1-1 record; 133 would have been 7-1-0). Still a good night. Tomorrow's card is not as big but has some big time games.
-JD
Idaho missed 2 free throws with 15 seconds left so the Utah St total ended up being 131 which just missed the middle (132 would have been good for a 6-1-1 record; 133 would have been 7-1-0). Still a good night. Tomorrow's card is not as big but has some big time games.
-JD
ADD Under 71 points for 2nd half Utah St vs Idaho
Both of these teams were red hot from the field in the first half and there is a 13 point middle opportunity so I am going to take it and bet the Under 71 for the 2nd half total.
Picks 1/5/09
Here are today's picks. No explanations since the games start at 7:
James Madison -4 vs Drexel - Pick: JMU
Old Dominion -3.5 at William & Mary - Pick: ODU
Temple vs Kent St - Total 138 - Pick: Under 138
Wisconsin-Mill -7 vs Valparaiso - Pick: Wisc Mill
Wisconsin-Green Bay -1.5 at Loyola Chicago - Pick: Wisc-GB
Utah St vs Idaho - Total 132 - Pick Over 132
I am still looking at the ND and South Carolina games. Check back
James Madison -4 vs Drexel - Pick: JMU
Old Dominion -3.5 at William & Mary - Pick: ODU
Temple vs Kent St - Total 138 - Pick: Under 138
Wisconsin-Mill -7 vs Valparaiso - Pick: Wisc Mill
Wisconsin-Green Bay -1.5 at Loyola Chicago - Pick: Wisc-GB
Utah St vs Idaho - Total 132 - Pick Over 132
I am still looking at the ND and South Carolina games. Check back
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