Picks 3/28/09

Here is what I have for today:

Pitt -2
Pitt vs Nova Over 141
Uconn vs Missouri Under 150
Uconn vs Missouri Under 71 1st Half

I might add Pitt for the 1st half as well.

ADD: Arizona +5.5 1ST Half

Picks 3/27/09

So far I have locked in:

Syracuse +1
Michigan st -1

ADD: Villanova Team Total Pts Over 31.5 - 2nd Half

More Plays

Missed a middle opportunity on the 2nd half Uconn total. I am adding:

Memphis -4
Villanova +2.5
Memphis vs Missouri UNDER 141

I am still considering Memphis for the 1st half as Missouri has been a better 2nd half team this year.

ADD: Uconn -6.5

ADD: Pitt -3.5 1st Half

2 More ADDS:

Pitt -6.5
UConn vs Purdue UNDER 62 1st Half

Picks 3/26/09

Here is only play I have locked in so far:

UConn vs Purdue Total Under 134.5

Check back for more plays.

2 More

ADD:

USC +4
USC vs Michigan St OVER 129

ADD: Missouri -3

Expect possible 2nd half plays on this game. I am also leaning towards USC +4 and the over in that game.

ADD: Dayton vs Kansas OVER 70.5 2nd Half

This game has been played really quick with no one making a thing. I am banking on the speed keeping up and the shooting to improve.

Additional Play

I am adding:

Pittsburgh Team total over 80.5

Additional Plays

Here is what I have so far:

Dayton vs Kansas OVER 133: I think this will be played at Kansas' speed and I actually think Dayton's offense is beter at a faster pace.

Xavier -3 : From the games i have watched this team is comfortable playing in the half court

Arizona -2.5: I like that they play zone as Clevland St is not great from deep

ADD: Cuse vs ASU UNDER 74 2nd Half

Yesterday 2nd half overs were 8-0, but I like the under here.

No Play for the Cuse vs ASU game

I lean to to Syracuse but these teams are too similar in style. Maybe I will have something after I watch the first half.

ADD: Duke vs Texas OVER 139

This Purdue game is good. Just missed the UNC over. Needed 4 points with 1:10 left but LSU stopped fouling.

ADD: Purdue vs Washington OVER 75 2nd HALF

Love the pace in this one. Counting on there being more fouls called. Not loving how Oklahoma has looked so far and the UNC over appears to be in bad shape as well.

More Plays

So it is safe to say I was a bit wrong about the scoring in the Memphis game.

Other games I have locked in:

Oklahoma -7
Gonzaga -11
LSU vs UNC OVER 158
Purdue vs Washington OVER 139.5

ADD: Memphis vs Maryland Under 61 1ST Half

ADD: Nova vs UCLA OVER 77.5 2nd Half

Picks 3/21/09

I haven't been able to get much traction with this tournament so far. I am going to take the bait and bet: Villanova -2

I have also locked in Memphis -9

More possible plays to follow.

ADD: Louisville -12 2nd Half

ADD: Louisville -21

This might be close for a half by Morehead turns the ball over too much.

ADD: Missouri -6.5 2nd half

Additional Plays

I am adding:

West Virginia -9 for the game
West Virginia -5 1st half

3-2-1 start so far. The 2 loses and push all came down to the final seconds but the ball did not bounce my way. The good news is that I won't be able to lose any more money on Tennessee games; so much talent yet no discipline.

NCAA Tournament Picks: Friday March 20

I went 7-6 on Thursday. I had the right idea about the game totals going over (they were 10-6) but poor execution as the ones I bet went 2-4. I like a lot of plays tomorrow so I am hoping for a good day as the season is coming to an end.

Friday's plays that are locked and loaded:

Arizona +1.5

Syracuse -11.5 (SFA can not shoot the 3 at all which is not bad news when playing the Cuse)

Syracuse -6.5 1st Half

Ohio St -3

Tennessee -2 (Let's see if they can screw me again)

USC -2.5

North Dakota St +10 (They might take this game outright)

North Dakota St / Kansas : OVER 144

Arizona / Utah : OVER 134

Cornell / Missouri : OVER 145.5

Marquette -4.5

In an effort to provide full disclosure here are the rest of my leans for tomorrow: Cleveland St +8, Louisville -21, Louisville 1st half -11.5, Ohio State vs Siena Under 142.5, West Virginia -9, Missouri -12.5, Florida St -2.5, Pitt Over 148, Tennessee Under 73.5 1st half. As always check back for 2nd half wagers and additional adds.

ADD: Western Kentucky vs Illinois OVER 68 2ND Half

ADD: UCLA vs VCU : OVER 136.5

Picks 3/19/09 - NCAA Tournament

I hope everyone has their brackets filled out. It is almost 5am and I just locked in my plays for Thursday's games. I still have some leans for the late games and 2nd half wagers are always in play.

Most of my leans / plays on totals for the next two days are on overs. When teams meet in their conference tournament games it is the 2nd or 3rd time they play and they are really familiar with the oppositions plays and sets and defend them better. In the Big Dance, teams play non conference opponents (at least for the first round or 2) and are just not as familiar. I believe this favors the offense and I think this has been evident in the totals from the NIT and CBI games thus far.

I have not really looked into the 1st half lines yet but will probably do so as the games are going on tomorrow. I will have Friday's plays up before I go to bed tomorrow night.

Drum Roll Please:

North Carolina vs Radford : OVER 163.5 (I bet this before the Lawson news and could have done a point better) (still like the play as UNC could go for 110 in this one and the pace should be torrid)

Butler vs LSU : OVER 127 (Scary Bet)

Memphis vs CS Northridge : OVER 131.5 (Scarier bet - Memphis games go under because their defense is unreal and they "struggle" on offense at times but they should have no problem scoring in this one (I expect 80 ish) and given the quick pace CS should be able to back into 55 - 60.)

Clemson vs Michigan : OVER 137.5

Washington vs Miss St: OVER 148.5

BYU -2.5

American +17

California Pick'em (I locked this one in before the steam move)

Washington -6

Western Kentucky -5

Gonzaga -12.5

ADD: Richmond Vs St John's UNDER 72 (2nd Half)

Picks 3/18/09

Here are my NIT / CBI plays for tonight. I hope to break the recent skid:

Miami @ Providence: OVER 147.5

Georgetown @ Baylor: UNDER 136.5

College of Charleston @ Troy: OVER 156

St John's @ Richmond: UNDER 132

That is all for now. I am still capping tomorrows games.

Picks 3/17/09

I have 3 none NCAA Tourney Plays for Tuesday. I don't anticipate playing the play in game but I might have a couple NIT or CBI plays for Wed.

Tuesdays Plays:

South Carolina -3.5
Niagra -4
Washington St @ St Mary's : UNDER 120

NCAA Tournament Time

Sunday was a disappointing end to conference tournament week. Giving back 2 units and losing the FSU future bet sucked. It was still a profitable week picking up 9 units but I feel like it should have been a better week.

Now for the Real Tournament. I plan to spend the next 2 days capping these games and I hope to have my initial set of picks up by Wed morning. There is always a chance I will add more plays after the initial post but I will post everything as soon as I place the wager. This could mean that I post before Wed if I lock something in now in anticipation of a line movement. Trying to figure out which lines are going to move (in order of getting the best price) is going to be tough.

Let's hope all the countless hours of basketball I have watched all year payoff.

No More Plays Today

No half time plays. Duke is on fire and FSU can't score, not good. There is no way to hedge any of the future at this point. Maybe FSU can come back and cover the 7 but I highly doubt it.

I like where Tennessee is at so I am letting that one ride.

ADD: Tenessee -5 Vols

Picks 3/15/09

Not many games today. Here is my play:

Florida St +7

I have FSU as a 3 point dog in this game and they are getting 7 so this is a play. FSU has the guard speed and defense to win this game. This game will probably come down to free throw disparity.

As for the FSU future to win the ACC tourney I have decided to not hedge it. Thanks to playing Duke the moneyline is -300 and I just can't get myself to hedge it out at that price when I think they have a better than 3 to 1 chance to win this game. If FSU was playing Maryland or BC, I would be hedging but Duke brings in too much public money (especially with only 4 games today).

I might add Tennessee as a play as well. I am staying away from the Ohio St / Purdue game because I think the line is pretty sharp.

Check back to see if I add the Vols and for possible half time plays.

ADD: Utah St / Nevada OVER 133.5

ADD: Temple Duquesne UNDER 76.5 - Second Half

Add: Purdue -3 (Bought the Hook)

2-1 so far but the pace and shooting is torrid in the Auburn / Tennessee game so that is not good at all and it looks like I might be headed to 2-3 after that game. Tennessee has killed me all year long, I think they have been by far my most unprofitable team.

The good news is that FSU futures which was .5 unit risked to win 7.5 units now has some value. I will probably hedge some of it. Let's go Maryland in a low scoring bought.

4 Under Plays

I have locked in 4 under Plays:

Auburn / Tennesse : Under 67 first half
Auburn / Tennesse : Under 143 Game

Duke / Maryland : Under 65.5 First Half
Duke / Maryland : Under 140 Game

ADD: North Carolina / Florida St OVER 148

I might be falling for a trap here (taking any over seems to a be trap these days) because this line is really low for a UNC game. They have not had a total this low since the 3rd game of the year. After watching yesterday's game against VT I came away thinking they miss Lawson a lot more on defense then they did on offense.

ADD: Memphis -13

Locked this in last night, and I am letting it play with the line movement.

Picks 3/14/09

First play I have locked in is:

Binghamton - 5

This bet is based on line movement so tail at your own risk.

2 More Second Half Plays

Ok two 2nd plays on the Missouri / Oklahoma St Game:

Missouri -4
2nd Half Total Under 79

ADD: Syracuse +6 Second Half

I hope I don't regret this because there is the chnage the Cuse lose their legs but West Virginia has not impressed me at all this year when they have faced a zone D.

ADD: Dayton -3

Couple More Plays

I am staying with the Michigan bet. I am adding:

Temple / Xavier Over 130.5
Florida / Auburn Over 141

Playing over in any of these tourney games can be scary but I think there is value in these lines because I expect faster tempos than the lines suggest, just need to avoid shooting performances like Wash St had last night.

ADD: Memphis / Houston UNDER 137

Memphis is the best defensive team in the nation. Last time these 2 played they went under this total. This will also be Houston's 3rd game in the 3 days and their last game went to OT last night and ended late.

ADD: UCLA / USC OVER 133

I really like this play a lot.

ADD: South Carolina / Miss St : Over 149

Kentucky is off to great start, talk about a uninspired start.

ADD: Michigan St -4 Second Half

Michigan St is starting to pull away from here and they played a good bit of that half without Morgan and Sutton who will improve their rebounding in the 2nd half.

I wish I could hedge out the UNC Under but there would be a 10 pt middle. The pace was quick but the real killer has been that every shot is falling.

Next Set of Plays

I am adding:

Florida State -4.5
Michigan +2.5 (I might buy this bet back later)


I had bet the over in the Michigan / Illinois game but bought this back when Erin Andrews just reported that Chester Frazier will not play. I quickly switched the play to Michigan +2.5 instead. As for the total Frazier does not score a lot but he is their best defender and would have covered Manny Harris. This loss should tick up the points that Michigan scores but I am scared that losing your point guard when you are about to play Michigan's zone could really hurt the amount of points that Illinois will score. So I have not decided on what the ultimate impact on the total may be (I might add the play back) and if my initial gut reaction to play Michigan (I might cancel this bet) was correct.

Picks 3/13/09

Sorry overslept. Here is me 12pm play:

North Carolina / Virginia Tech Under 156

I locked this in last night and it is a scary bet but I think VT will play slower then they did last time they played and Lawson is out.


I will start capping the rest of this card and put stuff out as I lock them in.

Late Game Play

I just locked in UCLA / Washington St : Over 122.5


I never really felt like I got much traction today (at least on the full game bets) but hopefully this will be one last winner.

ADD: Boston College +5

I might have one more play on the late Pac 10 game.

ADD: Alabama +3.5 Second Half

ADD: Maryland / NC State Under 65 First Half

ADD: Pitt -4

I am adding Penn State -8

last second add

I am adding Rhode Island -3

Stupid Nova, if you are going to blow the cover at least lose the game.

Addtional Plays

I am adding:

Arizona +4
Mississippi St -9
UAB -9

That is probably it up to the 6pm games.

ADD: Texas / Kansas St Under 64.5 First Half

More Plays

I am adding:

Villanova -3
Michigan -5

ADD: Baylor +8

ADD: Louisville Under 69.5 FIrst Half

I am making it a play as I like the way the line is moving.

Picks 3/12/09

I just got in front of a computer here are my noon plays:

Northwestern +1.5
Xavier / Northwestern Over 120.5 (This is a scary bet)
Miami / Virginia Tech Under 63 First Half

I have lean to the 1st under on the Louisville game. Still deciding if I will make it a play. Nice slate of games today so keep checking back for more plays.

ADD: Oregon / Washington St - Under 56 First Half

Probably my last play of the day.

ADD: Syracuse vs Seton Hall : OVER 152

That UMASS game is a track meet. Hopefully the Dukes can pull away here.

ADD: Duquesne -3

Still looking at the rest of the night games. I might have a few more plays but this might be it.

2 Additional Futures

I have made 2 additional Futures Plays for 0.5 Units each. They are:

Wisconsin to win the Big 10 Tourney at 7 to 1
Florida St to win the ACC Tourney at 15 to 1 (They might catch a gimpy Lawson)

I am also considering Wake Forest for a half a unit as well. I like their draw getting Duke but I am concerned by their youth.

ADD: St. John's / Marquette Under 139.5

Picks 3/11/09

I should have stuck with my initial lean of the under in the Butler game. With 9 minutes left, we only needed 22 pts for the over and than both teams stopped scoring. Now for todays plays:

Saint Louis / La Salle - UNDER 128 : This game tips at noon today at Boardwalk hall in Atlantic City which is not a venue that was built for basketball. Saint Louis likes to play a slow pace and win with their defense while La Salle will play quick or slow and seems to adapt to the style that their opponent likes. I just see a real blah kinda game as the teams get used to the venue and St Louis dictates the pace.

Saint Joseph's -3.5 - I don't really like SJU's draw in the A-10 Tournament but I do think they will be able to get it done in this game. Charlotte has been a terrible road team and they do not have the size to stop Nivens. SJU really packed it in the lane the last time time these two teams played and Charlotte was able to hit 3's they usually miss (they only shoot 30% from 3).

Saint Joseph's / Charlotte - UNDER 132 : Last game both teams hit a lot of 3's and the game was called pretty tight with a lot of Ft's. Weird start time, new arena, and I played this game under at the same line in their first meeting. The pace was there for the game to go under but both teams just shot the ball better than they usually do.

Baylor -1 : I like the fact these 2 teams just played on Saturday. In that game, Baylor was a 6 pt favorite and lost at home down the stretch. I think there is good value in this line thanks to that loss. Nebraska is a really small team and they hide it by being well coached but seeing that Baylor just played them they should be able to adjust. Hopefully Baylor has not packed in their season like Cincy and Georgetwon did and shows up and plays to their potential.

DePaul / Providence UNDER 143.5 - These two teams went under this total when they played in the regular season. Thanks to Providence's zone it is important to be able to hit 3's but DePaul is ranked 329th in 3 pt shooting (29% clip). This will be Providences first game in tournament and they have to win this game so I think they will come out a little tight. I like the noon start time in this game as well.

So there you have it for the games I have locked in thus far. There has been good value in the unders so far during these conference tournaments.

ADD: Butler Over 120

This one should be fun but I am counting on the additional endless fouling that occurs when the bid is on the line. Legs should not be an issue since both teams last played on Saturday.

PAC 10 Futures Wager

I have bet 1 Unit on Arizona to win the PAC 10 Tourney at +1000. I think this team matches up well with their draw and think they can beat Arizona St and Washington. I think there is a 1 in 4 or 5 chance they make it to the finals (the Vegas spreads will dictate a smaller chance but these are my odds). Now if they get to the finals I don't really love the UCLA or Cal match ups (especially with their short bench and it being the 3rd game in a row) but I can hedge out some of the wager at that point using the moneyline or switch sides to UCLA also using the moneyline.

I was also going to bet on Wisconson to win the Big 10 but the odds have gone down and I don't think their is as much value at 6 to 1. Temple to win the A-10 was on the radar as well but they are only 3.5 - 1 now.

ADD: Over 66 2nd Half Georgetown vs SJU

ADD: Georgetown -3.5 First Half

Ok I am back in front of my computer again. I thought I would be back at 11 but no such luck and I never got a chance to revisit DePaul which sucks since they won outright.

Picks 3/10/09

There have been a rash of unders lately, yesterday had all but 1 game I think. It seems like it is starting to be reflected in the new lines. I have a busy day today so I am not sure when I will be in front of a computer again anyway here is what I locked in:

DePaul / Cincinnati - Under 128.5
Seton Hall -5.5

I may have more adds later. For some reason, I like DePual (I have this gut feeling they might win that game) I just don't know if I can stomach taking them after the St John's beating. The Butler & Cleveland St game is very interesting as well. I was hoping the total would be a little higher because I like how these 2 match up and I think there could have been a lot of value in the under. I need to spend more time on that one.

Picks 3/9/09

Small card today so I am getting these plays up early. Here is what I am playing:

VCU -3.5 : This will be a square write-up. VCU will have the best player on the court in Maynor, the game is being played in Richmond, VCU has been the best shooting team in the conference tournament so far, they are the better free throw shooting team, and VCU has been the better road team this year. My only reservation here is that George Mason should win the rebounding battle. This could be an ugly game to watch.

Siena -3.5 (this is my Play of the Day): This game will be played at Siena, Niagra just played a double OT game that ended late last night, Siena is the more experienced team having won this game last year for the bid, and they can revenge the 15 point loss they just suffered against Niagra. The fatigue in Niagra's players was evident last night as they started missing a lot of FT's in OT. This is the 3rd game in 3 days for both teams but thanks to 2 blowouts Siena has been able to rest their starters some.

College of Charleston / Chattanooga : Under 154.5 - This will be COC's 4th game in 4 days and Chatt's 3rd. A bid will be on the line so we should get maximum defensive effort.

I am also leaning to the under in the Siena / Niagra game and I am still looking at the Zags game.

ADD: Niagra / Rider Over 78 (2nd Half)

I like the pace in this game and both previous meetings this season have gone over 78 in the 2nd half. Both teams are really hitting the offensive glass which is leading to easy 2nd chances.

ADD: Wake -4.5

ADD: North Carolina -7

ADD: Illinois St / Nothern Iowa : Over 123

Picks 3/8/09

The best 2 weeks in sports are upon us (in my humble opinion). Let's turn some profit. Me first play for today is:

Western Kentucky / Florida Internation : Over 137 - These 2 teams have played 2 times this year and they combined to score 145 and 160. I actually watched the first meeting and despite not being a good team FI matches up alright with WK, well good enough to score 60 which should be the magic number here as WK should be good for at least 75.

ADD: Cleveland St / Wisc - GB : Over 131.5

In the 2 games these teams have played this year they scored 158 and 145. One game had a pace of 73 and the other 67. Both teams are senior laden so they should not come out nervous given it is a tourney game. The line is a pick'em so late fouls should come into play at the end.

ADD: West Virginia / Louisville : Over 134.5

Last time these 2 played the pace was 75. Bob Huggins just said on an interview on ESPN that they plan on attacking the press like they did in the 2nd half of the 1st game they played this year (the half they scored 38). So far this season when teams have tried to push against Louisville, they have returned the favor. This game should be close so we should get some late fouls as well.

I might have 2 more plays tonight.

ADD: Temple / George Washington UNDER 132.5

This game should be played in the half court and I expect GW to struggle to score as Temple plays a good man to man D.

ADD: Columbia -3

Columbia already beat the Quakers once at the Palestra and I think they should be able to do so again this time at home and with Tyler Bernardini out for UPenn.

ADD: College of Charleston -3

Saint Joseph's Trifecta

Ok I am going big on the SJU Fordham game with 3 bets:

Saint Joe's -13 (for the game)
Saint Joe's -7.5 (1st Half)
Saint Joe's / Fordham Over 134.5

This is a great match up for the Hawks (Nivens will have 20+) and I expect them to roll and get 75+ pts.

Adds: Picks 3/7/09

I am adding;

Iowa -3 : They play well at home and PSU is coming off that big emotional win that was a late night game on Thursday.

Syracuse / Marquette : Over 156.5 - Both of these teams like to push the pace and match up well with the opposing defense.

I am still trying to figure out what I want to do with the St Joe's game. I was looking at making 3 bets on the game but the line moved.

Free Picks 3/7/09

It is A-10 and Over day. Here are the games I have locked in before I go to bed:

California / Arizona St : Over 136 - This is my Play of the Day. Cal will light up State's zone while State scores in the lane with Harden and Pendergraph.

Iowa St -3 : Nice letdown spot for Tech following the big emotional win over Kansas.

Temple -4.5 : GW should struggle to score in this one (might play the under as well).

Kentucky / Florida: Over 147 - Neither of these teams play much D and I think both teams are better in transition. Last game had a pace of 72 (according to Kenpom) so with a little uptick in the fg% and number of free throw attempts (the last meeting was so close there was no intentional fouling at the end) should get this one over.

Stanford / Arizona: Over 144

I will most likely have plays on Saint Joe's, Iowa, and St Louis. Keep checking back for more plays throughout the day.

Friday Night Play

You would think it would be easier to find out if a guy is playing or not. As expected, Bradley had little trouble with Mullins out for Southern Illinois.

At this time of year it really important to look at home vs away stats for teams as most games are on neutral sites.

1st Play for the Night:

Illinois St -4.5

I may add Drexel minus the points as well.

Bradley -2.5 Is A Not a Play

It is off the board before and no mention of Mullins

Bradley

I am most likely playing Bradley -2.5. I am just waiting to confirm that Bryan Mullins will not be playing.

I almost hedged out the App St bet at half and they might cover but I regret not doing it.

Picks 3/6/09

We actually have a Friday with not just Ivy action. Let the tournaments begin. Here is my first play for today:

Appalachian State -7

Nice Coaching Arizona

When a team hits 16 3's, how about you switch out of your zone and play some man (2 were against man).

ADD: Villanova Game Total Over 159

That is probably it for tonight. Might have a play on the Arizona St vs Stanford game.

Additional Plays 3/5/09

I really like the under in the Saint Joe's game. The last game was a real grinder and both teams forced the other to play in the half court and deep into the clock. I just can't see that changing tonight.

Adds:

Saint Joe's @ Temple : Under 132.5
Saint Joe's @ Temple : Under 62 (First Half Wager)

Picks 3/5/09

Not that big of a card tonight. So far I have locked in:

South Carolina -2
Arizona -4.5

Still looking at a couple possible total plays.

ADD: LSU -9

I think this is a bad matchup for Vandy, hopefully this is not a letdown spot for LSU

Add: Pitt Total Over 145.5

Looks Louisville is going to fly over that total; wish I had pulled the trigger on that one.

Picks 3/4/09

Just got my Internet working again. Cost me +4 units last night as I was not able to get my bets in for the late games (unders were hitting all over the place last night). Note to self, write down your books phone number.

Games locked in thus far:

North Carolina Over 160.5
Pitt -9.5
BYU -8.5
Memphis Under 140
Missouri Over 153
Arkansas -4.5

The Memphis under is probably my favorite. Every time they have played a team for the second time this year that team has scored less then they did the first time.

Other leans are: Over in La Salle, Over in Louisville, LSU -9, Kansas -10, Texas A&M -7, Pitt Over.

Check back to see if any of these leans become plays.

Picks 3/3/09

Here are my plays for the 7pm games:

Cincy / South Florida : Under 122
Michigan St / Indiana : Under 132.5

Some more possible plays to follow but be forewarned I like a lot of unders tonight which can be painful at the end of games with fould and OT.

Add: Missouri -2.5 2nd Half

Add: Under 139 In Saint Joe's Game

Picks 3/1/09

Here is what I have so far:

Flroida -4.5
Providence -3