Picks 1/10/08

Huge card today. 90 games had lines. I have narrowed the list to 30 and I am focusing in on those. Not sure how many plays I will end up with so keep checking back. Here is what I have so far:

Marquette -2 : West Virginia is coming off of a physical / emotional game with UCONN. Marquette can play both a quick pace and slow pace game so even if WVU is able to dictate the pace Marquette should still be able to pull this out at home.

Michigan St -6.5 : Kansas is a young road team who does not shoot that great and has to work inside out which they will not be able to do here. They have not been stellar on the road and MSU has really impressed me as they both rebound well and can shoot from outside the arch. I think MSU wins by at least 10 here.

East Carolina +7 : EC has played a tough schedule and Marshall has an inflated record with their only respectable win being Old Dominion (a 4 pts win @ home). Marshall just played San Diego and Memphis on the road and could have a bit of a hangover from those tough games.

BYU -9.5 : BYU is a much better team that has played well on the road and neutral sites.

UCONN -8.5 : UCONN will own the glass in this one. Cincy is going in the wrong direction and when they lose the rebounding ("RB") battle they lose the game. They are 16th in nation in RB margin and get a lot of second chance points from O Boards. UCONN, however, is 1st in RB margin and will take this away from them.

Delaware -6.5 : NC-Wilmington is real bad and beat up and Delaware likes to play fast so they will have no problem with the tempo of this game. The line has moved to -5.5 since a put the bet in but I still see a 10 - 15 pt win for the Blue Hens.

That is it for now many more to follow.

No Picks 1/9/08

Sorry I have no picks today. The card is real small and I do not see anything I really like. I was hoping the Siena vs. Rider total would be 145 or less and I would play the over but the line is at 150.5 so it is a no play. Rather than try and force bets tonight I am just going to start capping tomorrow's action as there are 130+ games tomorrow.

I would also like to thank The Stock Lemon for their show of support with the Vegas Watch listing my blog in their fade section. Make sure to check out his blog Stock Lemon.

In my first and second posts I warned that things might be rough at the start of the season given my capping style. From my post 11/12/08:

“I would like to point out that I use a number of techniques in capping CBB games but watching games is very important for my style. The more teams and games I have watched the better my handicapping gets. Naturally this is very tough early in the season (since no one has played yet) so I have to lean way more heavily on statistics than I will later in the season. So, if I start out cold please stick with with me and continue to check out my blog because in the past I have gotten much stronger as the season has worn on.”

For someone who “looks at the sports world from a statistical and analytical perspective” you would think Vegas Watch would afford me the opportunity of generating a reasonable sample size of a season worth of picks before listing my plays as fades.

-JD

Picks 1/7/09

According to Vegaswatch.net you should fade my picks. Only time will tell but I like my chances to turn a profit from here on out now that I have seen teams play. That UCONN game played out exactly how I thought it would (look at the write-up) but hey blindly betting against the public sure has worked out well this year for the contrarian sports bettors. Now for todays picks:

Davidson @ Duke - Line Duke -13.5

Pick - Duke -13.5: This is a real bad matchup for Davidson. Curry will have to drop 40 for a cover here and Duke will be all over him.

Michigan @ Indiana - Line Michigan -6.5

Pick - Michigan -6.5: Let me guess this is a sucker bet. Why else would the line be so low right? If it is a sucker bet well than call me a sucker. Indiana plays walkons who will not be able to deal with the 1-3-1 zone and do not have the athletes to push the ball to score before Michigan can setup. I don't think Indiana will be able to get over 60 in this game.

Depual @ Syracuse - Line Cuse -12.5

Pick - Cuse -12.5: Depaul can not shoot for shit and the last time they played a good zone (@ Northwestern) they scored 38 points. The Orangmen should bury this team early.

Harvard @ Boston College: - Line BC -18

Pick: Harvard +18. Looking for a hangover for BC following the big upset win over UNC. I doubt they are able to shoot the ball that well two games in a row.

Tulane @ East Carolina - Line East Carolina -7.5

Pick: East Carolina -7.5. East Carolina has been in a bit of a funk lately but they have been good at home and I think they may have turned the corner playing Clemson tough on Saturday. Tulane has only played 4 road games this year and has not shown up for any of those games.

Northwestern @ Wisconsin - Line Over/Under 118

Pick: Over 118. I am expecting a close game here (the line of +7 is tempting) and Northwestern shoots the 3 well enough to hit 60 in this game. Total should be finish up around 125 - 130.

Louisville @ South Florida - Line Over/Under 125

Pick: Over 125. South Florida is a guard oriented team so they should be able to handle Louisville's press better than the average team. Louisville has not been playing well so far but they are too talented to not win this game. Final score should be around 70 - 75 to 60 - 65.

That is for now. I have leans to the under in the Michigan game, Delaware plus the points, Drake minus 13.5, Wichita St -3.5, Evansville -8, and over 124 in the Tulsa game. Check back to see if I add any of these as official plays.

Results 1/6/08

3 Wins, 3 Loses, 0 Ties

I should have layed off of Purdue with Humell out. Also Arkansas is better than I thought they were. This could have been a much better night as my leans were 8-4, did a poor job narrowing the list down.

Adds 1/6/08

I am adding Texas -4.5 and UTEP +8.

Picks 1/6/08

Here are the picks I have locked in:

Miami Oh @ Dayton - Line: Dayton -6.5

Pick: Dayton -6.5 - One of Miami's leading scorers is out with a hand injury. These teams play a similar style but Dayton is a bit more athletic and plays really well at home.

UCONN @ West Virginia - Line WV -3.5

Pick: UCONN +3.5 - WV will get killed on the boards tonight much like they did at Ohio St. UCONN will not miss the same open looks that Ohio St did however, and should win this going away. Also from the WV games I have seen, they rely on a lot of put back buckets from offensive rebounds but I really expect them to struggle in the paint and they are mediocre 3 point shooting team.

Purdue @ Penn State - Line Purdue -2.5

Pick: Purdue -2.5 - I like that Purdue is coming off a tough home loss and I expect them to very focused. Also PSU just played a physical game @ Wisconsin. Purdue's defense should be could enough for them to win this game and get a late cover with FT's. I want to point out that Purdue's Hummell might not play this game.

LSU @ Utah - Line Utah -5

Pick: Utah -5 - This is LSU's first true road game of the year and Utah has been on a role as of late having recently beat Gonzaga at home. They followed that game with an impressive win against an underrated Wyoming team in what could have been a trap game. A Utah blowout and easy cover would not surprise me at all.

That is is for now. I am still looking at the sides for the Arkansas and New Mexico games. Additionally, most totals seem high to me tonight so I may have a few total plays as well.

Results 1/5/09

6 Wins, 2 Loses, 0 Pushes

Idaho missed 2 free throws with 15 seconds left so the Utah St total ended up being 131 which just missed the middle (132 would have been good for a 6-1-1 record; 133 would have been 7-1-0). Still a good night. Tomorrow's card is not as big but has some big time games.

-JD

ADD Under 71 points for 2nd half Utah St vs Idaho

Both of these teams were red hot from the field in the first half and there is a 13 point middle opportunity so I am going to take it and bet the Under 71 for the 2nd half total.

Add ND -3 over Georgetown

Picks 1/5/09

Here are today's picks. No explanations since the games start at 7:

James Madison -4 vs Drexel - Pick: JMU

Old Dominion -3.5 at William & Mary - Pick: ODU

Temple vs Kent St - Total 138 - Pick: Under 138

Wisconsin-Mill -7 vs Valparaiso - Pick: Wisc Mill

Wisconsin-Green Bay -1.5 at Loyola Chicago - Pick: Wisc-GB

Utah St vs Idaho - Total 132 - Pick Over 132

I am still looking at the ND and South Carolina games. Check back

Picks 12/30/08

Here are the first set of picks since the time off:

Cleveland St -1 : Wright st is beat up and I think this is the game that the injuries finally catch up to them (aka Ohio St vs West Virginia).

Southern Mississippi -2 : Mississippi just lost arguably their best player Warren with a torn knee ligament so I am fading them.

Oklahoma -5.5 : Arkansas is real young has played no one this year hence the inflated record. Oklahoma is no cup cake.

Clemson -2.5 : Like Ark. South Carolina has played no one this year. Clemson has crazy ball pressure and has already won some big road games this year.

Over 127 Purdue / Illinois

Blog Update

And I am back. I apologize for the radio silence but I had a lot of stuff going on. I will be back posting my plays everyday again. As conference play begins, certain days of the week (aka Friday and Sunday) will be light on games while other days will have tons of games (Saturday). Here is to a profitable run to March.

-JD

Picks 12/6/08

Huge card today. There are so many games and lots of good lines. Here is what i have so far:

Gonzaga Over 137.5

Duke -9.5

Northwestern -6


BC -4.0

Penn State -6

ND -3


Miami +2

Results 12/4/08

0 Wins, 1 Loss, 0 Pushes

Texas looked like an easy cover at the end of the first half. Unfortunately they play two halves.

12/3/04 Results

4 Wins; 3 Loses; 0 Pushes

Got beat by the hook in the Siena game and was really close to hedging out of the FSU bet at half by playing Northwestern -2 for the 3 point middle.

Real small card tomorrow. Only thing that jumped out at me was Texas -6 vs UCLA. Texas is very good on defense and UCLA still has not found their offensive groove. Texas should win this by 9 - 12.

Picks 12/3/08

Sorry no time for write-ups:


Maryland Total Over 127.5
UMASS -1.5 (top play at some point you need to nut up and beat inferior teams)
North Carolina -10
Florida Sate +2
Siena -7.5
UAB Total Over 130.5
Auburn +14.5

Results 12/2/08

1 Win, 5 Loses; 0 Pushes

And the blood bath continues; just how I wanted to start the new month. An animal throwing darts at wall would have better results. Big slate of games today, at first glance I have about a dozen leans and I am know going through those games in depth.

Picks 12/2/08 -Adds

I am adding Purdue -2 over Duke. From the games I have watched these teams are very similar. Give me the one at home. This is the first real road game of the year for Duke and I expect Purdue to be fired up and shoot well from beyond the arch.

Time to kick off December. I have a full card today and may be adding some more games. I will have a play on the Duke / Purdue game, so check back for that one. So far it is a total's day:

South Carolina @ Princeton - Line: Over / Under 126

We can thank Fordham for some value here. In their last game Princeton won at Fordham 73 -61 going over the posted total of 119.5. That score had a lot more to do with Fordham's asstastic defense then some new found Priceton offense. Princeton plays so slow and South Carolina's defense should be good enough to make them run late into the shot clock. That Fordham game was the only time all season that Princeton scored over 55 and I see no reason why they will get over that total tonight. With Princeton scoring 55 that would mean South Carolina would need to score over 76 to go over the total. Sure they average 83 a game but this game is on the road and Princeton's D is only giving up 54.

The Pick: Go with the Under 126 in the Princeton game

Troy @ Dayton - Line Over / Under 143.5

Let down city here. Dayton is coming off of a major upset win at Marquette. It is usually a good spot to fade a team coming off of an upset when they follow with a team they should "easily" beat. The problem with the side is that Troy is pretty bad so I am looking to the total for the let down play. Dayton has been very good defensively this year only giving up 52.7 a game and playing at Dayton is a tough place to play. Dayton has a very good home crowd. Even if Dayton is not focused on this game, Troy should find it hard pressed to put a lot of points on the board. I expect Dayton to come out flat, for there to be a real sloppy slow scoring first half, followed by Dayton pulling away late to maybe cover the side maybe not cover the side but stay under the total. 143.5 is a decently high total. Even if Dayton got to 80 (I am thinking 70), Troy would need to get to 63.5against a team giving up 43 ppg at home.

The Pick: Dayton total to go under 143.5

Villanova @ UPENN - Line: Nova -13

Nova is a terrible matchup for Penn. Penn is a poor rebounding team and will struggle on the board against Nova but they will have even more problems with Nova's backcourt. Penn's guards struggled with Drexel's pressure defense and Nova's guards are a lot more athletic and talented. Nova won this game last season by 26 and returned their team in tact this season. The game is @ Penn but Nova usually plays a couple games a year at the Palestra so they are used to the court.

The Pick: Nova -13

Ohio St @ Miami - Line: Over / Under 131

Ohio State plays a real slow style game and is only giving up 40.3 ppg. Granted those games were not against teams as talented as Miami so that number is skewed but what is not skewed is that Ohio St has only averaged 63 ppg scored playing at home agianst inferior teams. Mami's Defense has been fairly good this year. The only game they struggled defensivily was against UCONN but Ohio St does not have a big man as talented as Thabeet. I expect this game to be played in 115 - 125 range.

The Pick: Ohio St / Miami Uner 131

Iowa @ Boston College - Line: Over / Under 130.5

Both of these teams have very good offensive efficiency's coupled with so so defense. BC's Tyrese Rice has really been heating up and I expect him to continue that at home. Also of note is that both of these teams get to the line 20+ times a game which really helps extend a game. I expect the winner of this game to get to 70 with the loser in the 60s. 70+60 gets us to 130 so as long as that 60 is a 61 that leads to a cover.

The Pick: Over 130.5 Iowa @ BC

Please no more OT in games where I pick the under!

Picks 12/1/08

Goodbye November! Here are the picks for the first day of a winning month:

There are none. Today is a small card and nothing jumps out at me. I have a couple leans like Kent St or the under in the Drexel game but nothing I feel really good about. I could see the Kansas game under as well.

Come back tomorrow.