6 years ago
Saturday, January 24, 2009
1/23/09 Picks - 3pm Games
POD - Kentucky -6: Bama was able to win against Mississippi without Steele but Ole Miss is more depleted than Bama is. Kentucky is so good defensively and should feast on a team that now is in search for a floor leader.
Also:
College of Charleston -5.5
Also:
College of Charleston -5.5
Picks 1/24/09 - Some early games
I am not sure if I will have a POD pick since I am capping this huge card piecemeal by time. Here are the early plays that I have so far locked in:
Arkansas -4.5: Auburn is a better team than people think but I still like Arkansas to cover this line. They have been very good at home only losing 1 game and should be motivated to get their first conference win. Lately they have been losing games because they have been outscored from beyond the arch and on the free throw line but Auburn is not very good from 3 (32.3%) and somehow manages to shoot worse from the free line than Arkansas.
Texas Tech ("TT") @ Missouri Over 158: At first I was looking at TT plus the points as this game could be a bit of let down spot for Missouri following a good road win @ Oklahoma St. However, I am concerned that TT might turn the ball over too much with Missouri's pressure D which could lead to a blowout. So instead I am turning to the over. Both of these teams play really fast so the pace should be torrid in this game. TT gave up 85 to TCU, 111 to Stanford, 96 to UTEP, and 116 to East Central. An argument can be made (and an easy one at that) that Missouri is better offensively than any of those teams and they should get over 90 in this game. That leaves 70 needed from TT which they should be able to get since Missouri gives up 65 a game and the pace of this one will be quicker than their average opponent.
Delaware vs Georgia St Over 125: Both of these teams play bad defense. This game features two teams with different styles. Delaware prefers to push the ball while Georgia St would rather play in the half court. Delaware has played at least 7 games against teams that prefer a slower pace and all but 2 (Northeastern and Old Dominion ) have gone over the posted total of 125. Well, Northeastern and Old Dominion play much better defense that Georgia St. In these games Delaware's pace has won out because they push the ball when they have it and play such bad defense the other team scores on them earlier in the shot clock.
Arkansas -4.5: Auburn is a better team than people think but I still like Arkansas to cover this line. They have been very good at home only losing 1 game and should be motivated to get their first conference win. Lately they have been losing games because they have been outscored from beyond the arch and on the free throw line but Auburn is not very good from 3 (32.3%) and somehow manages to shoot worse from the free line than Arkansas.
Texas Tech ("TT") @ Missouri Over 158: At first I was looking at TT plus the points as this game could be a bit of let down spot for Missouri following a good road win @ Oklahoma St. However, I am concerned that TT might turn the ball over too much with Missouri's pressure D which could lead to a blowout. So instead I am turning to the over. Both of these teams play really fast so the pace should be torrid in this game. TT gave up 85 to TCU, 111 to Stanford, 96 to UTEP, and 116 to East Central. An argument can be made (and an easy one at that) that Missouri is better offensively than any of those teams and they should get over 90 in this game. That leaves 70 needed from TT which they should be able to get since Missouri gives up 65 a game and the pace of this one will be quicker than their average opponent.
Delaware vs Georgia St Over 125: Both of these teams play bad defense. This game features two teams with different styles. Delaware prefers to push the ball while Georgia St would rather play in the half court. Delaware has played at least 7 games against teams that prefer a slower pace and all but 2 (Northeastern and Old Dominion ) have gone over the posted total of 125. Well, Northeastern and Old Dominion play much better defense that Georgia St. In these games Delaware's pace has won out because they push the ball when they have it and play such bad defense the other team scores on them earlier in the shot clock.
Moneyline
Ah, Moneyline I knew it was only a matter of time before you came after me. I will be the first to admit that I was wrong about Georgetown rebounding performance in that game. I really thought WV would struggle with Monroe's length. I deserved your post so I am not going to try and refute what you wrote because you are right.
The issue I have is that you like to go around deciding who is a "square" when it can be easily be argued that you are one. Let's take a look at your results from 2007-2008:
The issue I have is that you like to go around deciding who is a "square" when it can be easily be argued that you are one. Let's take a look at your results from 2007-2008:
- NFL: 70-70-3
- CFB: 97-76-4
- NBA: 99-84-4
- CBB: 185-179
- MLB: 411-432
- Euro 2008: 11-11-2
- Tennis: 0-5
- Olympic Hoops: 11-7
- Total: 884-864-18
- Win Percentage 50.57%
With 10% juice and a standard bet size; a 50.57% winning percentage equates to a losing season. The only reason you were up (and you were up substantially last season so kudos) was because you varied your betting units. Now if you actually updated your 2008-2009 record (which I am sure would be updated if you were replicating last seasons success this year) I bet there is a good chance your results are worse than your winning percentage this year and your varying bet sizes are compounding your loses. Just because you have a formula you stick too, a bunch of followers, and one good year of results doesn't mean your not a square.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Picks 1/22/09
Here are the games I have locked in:
Play of the Day – UCLA -4.5: Washington St plays good defense but so does UCLA. Washington St has struggled with athletic teams (except Oregon but they have no discipline which is needed due to the methodical nature of Washington St on both ends of the court) and UCLA has some athletes. This game could be ugly to watch but Washington St is so bad on offense that I would e shocked if they hit 55 pts in this game (45 to 50 would be my bet). Had UCLA won its last game against Arizona St I might be a bit concerned of a let-down but I love them in this spot coming off a loss and expect them to be focused and really take it to Washington St (especially in the 2nd half).
Next 2 favorite plays:
Georgetown -5: I think the UCONN game is a pretty good comp for how this game should play out. Both teams will struggle to score (but more so West Virginia) and Georgetown will pull away late for an 8 -10 pt win. I expect Georgetown to win the battle of the boards and Monroe should have his way in this affair.
Dayton -4.5: GW is just a bad team and they have struggled to score at times against good defensive teams which Dayton is. Dayton has struggled on the road this year, thus the line, but GW will not be able to put up the points needed to keep this close.
The rest:
Utah St -4
Georgetown - West Virginia Under 133.5
Washington – USC Over 135
I am looking at the Wright St – Illinois Loyola Under 114.5 and Portland -10. Also a small lean on St. Johns
Play of the Day – UCLA -4.5: Washington St plays good defense but so does UCLA. Washington St has struggled with athletic teams (except Oregon but they have no discipline which is needed due to the methodical nature of Washington St on both ends of the court) and UCLA has some athletes. This game could be ugly to watch but Washington St is so bad on offense that I would e shocked if they hit 55 pts in this game (45 to 50 would be my bet). Had UCLA won its last game against Arizona St I might be a bit concerned of a let-down but I love them in this spot coming off a loss and expect them to be focused and really take it to Washington St (especially in the 2nd half).
Next 2 favorite plays:
Georgetown -5: I think the UCONN game is a pretty good comp for how this game should play out. Both teams will struggle to score (but more so West Virginia) and Georgetown will pull away late for an 8 -10 pt win. I expect Georgetown to win the battle of the boards and Monroe should have his way in this affair.
Dayton -4.5: GW is just a bad team and they have struggled to score at times against good defensive teams which Dayton is. Dayton has struggled on the road this year, thus the line, but GW will not be able to put up the points needed to keep this close.
The rest:
Utah St -4
Georgetown - West Virginia Under 133.5
Washington – USC Over 135
I am looking at the Wright St – Illinois Loyola Under 114.5 and Portland -10. Also a small lean on St. Johns
Juice Juice and more Juice
Results for 1/20/09:
4 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Pushes
Another day and another .500 record. I got burnt on my total plays again. I am thinking of adding a new feature which will be my Play of the Day. I will of course keep track of the POD record on the side of the site. I am still in the process of caping today's card. I have locked in a few plays and will be posting these later.
4 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Pushes
Another day and another .500 record. I got burnt on my total plays again. I am thinking of adding a new feature which will be my Play of the Day. I will of course keep track of the POD record on the side of the site. I am still in the process of caping today's card. I have locked in a few plays and will be posting these later.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Picks 1/21/09
I have to be somewhere @ 1pm so no time for writeups. Big card so I have a number of plays:
Xavier -12 (bought the hook)
Buffalo -2.5
Central Florida -3
Oklahoma St -1
Baylor +3.5
Wisconsin -3
Florida / South Carolina Over 151.5
Mississippi / Alabama Under 144
I have a lean on Virgina Tech plus the points (I am waiting to see how high they go) and the Under in the Old Dominion game (again I am waiting to see if the total moves up since I would like to see 145).
Xavier -12 (bought the hook)
Buffalo -2.5
Central Florida -3
Oklahoma St -1
Baylor +3.5
Wisconsin -3
Florida / South Carolina Over 151.5
Mississippi / Alabama Under 144
I have a lean on Virgina Tech plus the points (I am waiting to see how high they go) and the Under in the Old Dominion game (again I am waiting to see if the total moves up since I would like to see 145).
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Last Game 1/20/09
Tennessee @ Vanderbuilt 2nd Half UNDER 75 - There was a lot of good defense in the first half and neither team shoots very well from behind the arch.
1/20/09 Add
Northern Illinois -5
That is my only play for the 8 o'clock games. May still have some plays on the 9pm games.
That is my only play for the 8 o'clock games. May still have some plays on the 9pm games.
Picks 1/20/09 - Round 1
Here are the first group of picks:
Illinois -8
Boston College +2.5
Drexel vs Delaware Under 127
Illinois -8
Boston College +2.5
Drexel vs Delaware Under 127
Monday, January 19, 2009
Picks 1/19/09
Pitt vs Cuse Under 147: Syracuse is coming off of a track meet and Pitt just had a tough physical game against Louisville so both this teams might not have their legs on a short rest. Pitt is the best defensive team the Cuse will have faced and think they will slow this down and control the pace.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Saturday, January 17, 2009
More plays
Penn St -5: Fade of Indiana
Drexel -7: Unc-W will struggle with the Drexel perimeter D
Drexel @ UNC-W: Under 140.5
Drexel -7: Unc-W will struggle with the Drexel perimeter D
Drexel @ UNC-W: Under 140.5
Add Florida State -4
Maryland is not playing that well as of late and is coming off a crushing loss @ Miami. They struggle with interior size and athleticism which FSU has and should find it hard to score in this game.
Picks Sat 1/17/09
Massive card today. Counting totals there are 190 different possible bets that can be made. I am going to post what I have locked in now and will continue to post additional plays as I make them.
Northeastern -3: Northeastern is red hot and just beat this team by 23 pts a couple weeks ago and nothing unusual (aka 75% 3pt shooting) occurred in the first meeting.
Georgetown +9: Duke should find it much harder to rebound in this game. The recipe to beating Duke the last several years is athleticism which Georgetown has. This line should be 5 not 9.
Duke vs Georgetown Over 137
Butler -3: Both of these teams play a little faster than their stats dictate and Illinois Chicago's defense leaves much to be desired. Butler is just the much better team and has Illinois Chicago has already lost 3 home games this year to teams less talented than Butler. Butler should be able to get to 70 in this game and I don't see IC being able to keep up as they take bad shots sometimes.
Arkansas +10.5: Florida is not good enough defensively to cover this spread. They will once again get killed on the glass and Washington should have his way in the paint against the Gators. Both teams like to run so this should be a track meet.
BYU -1.5: New Mexico is overrated. I have watched them several times on Full Court and they just do not impress me. BYU won this game on the road last year as well to a much better NM team.
Texas -6: I don't see this game being close at all. Texas will be the best defensive team TT has played all year. Texas' biggest problem this year has been putting the ball in the basket but TT sucks on the defensive end so it should not be an issue in this game.
Pittsburgh +2: Louisville has yet to prove they can hit shots from the outside but have been making a living in the lane and on the glass lately. I don;t see those same points being there today as Pitt is one of the best rebounding teams I have seen this year.
Nebraska -2: Nebraska has been very good at home and they really defend. Kansas St has been headed in the other direction lately and their guards should struggle with the atmosphere and on the ball pressure.
Michigan -3.5: Without Lighty, Ohio St should struggle to score against Michigan's zone. Mullins is a freshmen so this will be the first time he sees this defense. Michigan has also been very good at home this year.
Davidson -12: Value has been created because Davidson has not been able to cover the 20 pt spreads they have been facing. Georgia Southern sucks defensively so Curry should have no problems filling up the stat sheet in this one.
That is it for now. I still have another 10 or so more leans so expect more plays.
Northeastern -3: Northeastern is red hot and just beat this team by 23 pts a couple weeks ago and nothing unusual (aka 75% 3pt shooting) occurred in the first meeting.
Georgetown +9: Duke should find it much harder to rebound in this game. The recipe to beating Duke the last several years is athleticism which Georgetown has. This line should be 5 not 9.
Duke vs Georgetown Over 137
Butler -3: Both of these teams play a little faster than their stats dictate and Illinois Chicago's defense leaves much to be desired. Butler is just the much better team and has Illinois Chicago has already lost 3 home games this year to teams less talented than Butler. Butler should be able to get to 70 in this game and I don't see IC being able to keep up as they take bad shots sometimes.
Arkansas +10.5: Florida is not good enough defensively to cover this spread. They will once again get killed on the glass and Washington should have his way in the paint against the Gators. Both teams like to run so this should be a track meet.
BYU -1.5: New Mexico is overrated. I have watched them several times on Full Court and they just do not impress me. BYU won this game on the road last year as well to a much better NM team.
Texas -6: I don't see this game being close at all. Texas will be the best defensive team TT has played all year. Texas' biggest problem this year has been putting the ball in the basket but TT sucks on the defensive end so it should not be an issue in this game.
Pittsburgh +2: Louisville has yet to prove they can hit shots from the outside but have been making a living in the lane and on the glass lately. I don;t see those same points being there today as Pitt is one of the best rebounding teams I have seen this year.
Nebraska -2: Nebraska has been very good at home and they really defend. Kansas St has been headed in the other direction lately and their guards should struggle with the atmosphere and on the ball pressure.
Michigan -3.5: Without Lighty, Ohio St should struggle to score against Michigan's zone. Mullins is a freshmen so this will be the first time he sees this defense. Michigan has also been very good at home this year.
Davidson -12: Value has been created because Davidson has not been able to cover the 20 pt spreads they have been facing. Georgia Southern sucks defensively so Curry should have no problems filling up the stat sheet in this one.
That is it for now. I still have another 10 or so more leans so expect more plays.
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