3 Wins, 1 Lose, 1 Tie
Well the horrible month at least ended on a good note. I learned a lesson on the Indiana Cornell game. You have to be just a little athletic so give Indiana trouble, Cornell is not very athletic.
6 years ago
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Picks 11/30/08
I wanted to get these picks up now because I really love Sunday's card. Today is the day I turn this season around.
James Madison @ Fordham - Line: JMU -1
Both of these teams leave something to be desired but Fordham is the worse squad. They just lost to Princeton. They might be one of the worst defensive ball clubs in basketball and they try to play really up tempo but do not have the players to effectively pull of this style. JMU has no problem playing fast and I see them having no problem covering the spread here. I will have my eye on the total as well because I have a strong lean on the over, I just need to see the line.
The Pick: JMU -1
St. Mary's vs Providence (Neutral site) - Line: St Mary's -4.5
St. Mary's is a talented team that had a step back against UTEP. They really like to run and their point guard Patrick Mills is a stud. He will dominate this game as Providence trys to run with them but won't be able to keep up. I expect St. Mary's to pull away late and win by 10-15.
The Pick: St Mary's -4.5
Cornell @ Indiana - Line: Cornell -2.5
Indiana is horrible. I watched all of their games in Maui and they just do not have the players to compete this year. Yes this game is at Indiana but Cornell is an experienced team who has played on the road before and in tougher places, and played well. There are reports that Cornell's best player Louis Dale will return to the lineup for this game. If he doesn't Cornell wins; if he does Cornell wins. I know this looks like a trap game and I see that right now 65% of the wagerline action is on Indiana but I really like Cornell with this line. Saint Joe's whipped Indiana and think SJU will lose to Cornell later this season.
The pick: Cornell -2.5
Georgetown vs Maryland - Line: Georgetown -5
I watched Maryland play Gonzaga and they really struggled with Gonzaga's size. The Zags just kept pounding Maryland inside and just wore out the Terps. Well, guess what Georgetown also has a lot of size and I expect more of the same. I expect Maryland to be a trendy pick because this somewhat of a rivalry game that never gets paid but I look at that as creating value in the line. The Hoyas should have no problem pulling away and winning by 10. I could see this game being tied at half and setting up a nice 2nd half wager on Georgetown.
The Pick: Georgetown -5
That is all for now. There could be some good under total plays with some of these teams playing their 3rd game in 4 days. just need to wait to see the totals. I am also looking hard at Wichita St vs Michigan St, Siena vs Oklahoma St, Baylor vs Wake, Tennessee vs Gonzaga (should be a great game), and Louisville vs Western Kentucky.
James Madison @ Fordham - Line: JMU -1
Both of these teams leave something to be desired but Fordham is the worse squad. They just lost to Princeton. They might be one of the worst defensive ball clubs in basketball and they try to play really up tempo but do not have the players to effectively pull of this style. JMU has no problem playing fast and I see them having no problem covering the spread here. I will have my eye on the total as well because I have a strong lean on the over, I just need to see the line.
The Pick: JMU -1
St. Mary's vs Providence (Neutral site) - Line: St Mary's -4.5
St. Mary's is a talented team that had a step back against UTEP. They really like to run and their point guard Patrick Mills is a stud. He will dominate this game as Providence trys to run with them but won't be able to keep up. I expect St. Mary's to pull away late and win by 10-15.
The Pick: St Mary's -4.5
Cornell @ Indiana - Line: Cornell -2.5
Indiana is horrible. I watched all of their games in Maui and they just do not have the players to compete this year. Yes this game is at Indiana but Cornell is an experienced team who has played on the road before and in tougher places, and played well. There are reports that Cornell's best player Louis Dale will return to the lineup for this game. If he doesn't Cornell wins; if he does Cornell wins. I know this looks like a trap game and I see that right now 65% of the wagerline action is on Indiana but I really like Cornell with this line. Saint Joe's whipped Indiana and think SJU will lose to Cornell later this season.
The pick: Cornell -2.5
Georgetown vs Maryland - Line: Georgetown -5
I watched Maryland play Gonzaga and they really struggled with Gonzaga's size. The Zags just kept pounding Maryland inside and just wore out the Terps. Well, guess what Georgetown also has a lot of size and I expect more of the same. I expect Maryland to be a trendy pick because this somewhat of a rivalry game that never gets paid but I look at that as creating value in the line. The Hoyas should have no problem pulling away and winning by 10. I could see this game being tied at half and setting up a nice 2nd half wager on Georgetown.
The Pick: Georgetown -5
That is all for now. There could be some good under total plays with some of these teams playing their 3rd game in 4 days. just need to wait to see the totals. I am also looking hard at Wichita St vs Michigan St, Siena vs Oklahoma St, Baylor vs Wake, Tennessee vs Gonzaga (should be a great game), and Louisville vs Western Kentucky.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Adds
I am going to go and add Pitt -6.5. Pitt is just so efficient on offense I think they will be able to handle Washington St's Defense.
I decided to not play Northeastern. I just don't know enough about South Florida. My gut is saying Northeastern but that is not good enough.
I may have a play on the Stanford total tonight and I really like tomorrows card.
I decided to not play Northeastern. I just don't know enough about South Florida. My gut is saying Northeastern but that is not good enough.
I may have a play on the Stanford total tonight and I really like tomorrows card.
11/29/08 - Picks Add
St Bonaventure -3.5 @ Canisius (I like the bonnies in this one. They have been playing good basketball this year and have played on the road a few times already. The game is being played in Buffallo so it is at neither teams home gym. Both teams have similar size so I do not see Canisius being able to dominate in the paint)
Kentucky vs West Virginia Over 140 - I like the over here. I am expecting a fairly quick pace and West Virginia is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. The games in Vegas seemed to be called real close yesterday so i look for a good number of free throws which will extend the game. I had this total caped at 150 and expect both teams to get over 68 pts each, the line has however dropped since I placed the wager.
Kansas St vs Iowa Over 135.5 - I caped this total at at least 140 points so the 135.5 looks good. To be noted again, this line has also moved the other way since I placed the wager. Iowa plays a little quicker than people think and Kansas St gives up at lease 60 a game. Both teams are pretty efficient on offense and Kansas St has 4 good scorers so if 1 player is off someone else can pick up the slack.
That is it for now. I am looking at Pitt and maybe Northeastern (I think the wrong team might be favored here).
Kentucky vs West Virginia Over 140 - I like the over here. I am expecting a fairly quick pace and West Virginia is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. The games in Vegas seemed to be called real close yesterday so i look for a good number of free throws which will extend the game. I had this total caped at 150 and expect both teams to get over 68 pts each, the line has however dropped since I placed the wager.
Kansas St vs Iowa Over 135.5 - I caped this total at at least 140 points so the 135.5 looks good. To be noted again, this line has also moved the other way since I placed the wager. Iowa plays a little quicker than people think and Kansas St gives up at lease 60 a game. Both teams are pretty efficient on offense and Kansas St has 4 good scorers so if 1 player is off someone else can pick up the slack.
That is it for now. I am looking at Pitt and maybe Northeastern (I think the wrong team might be favored here).
Picks 11/30/ Cont
I am not seeing much today. Not all of the totals have been posted yet so maybe I will have something later but I may not have any more plays at all.
Picks 11/29/08
Game is about to start Old Dominion +4 at Marshal
Take ODU they are the better team have 2 decent/good road wins and are catching points. Marshal's backcourt is sucks.
Take ODU they are the better team have 2 decent/good road wins and are catching points. Marshal's backcourt is sucks.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Picks 11/28/08 Adds
I am adding:
Purdue vs Oklahoma Over 138 (Purdue will have no answer for Griffen and Purdue should be able to hit the shots UAB was missing the other day. This is the 2nd game for both teams at the Garden so they should be comfortable with the environment and I see this game being a very close well played game. I would not be shocked if this game goes into OT and I am expecting a 75 - 70 type score)
Mississippi St +3 vs Washington St. (This game is being played in Newark NJ which means Washington st is flying across the country for this game. Both of these teams play good defense but Mississippi St has the better offense. Also Mississippi has been battle tested this year (winning @ St Bonaventure which is a very tough place to play) while Washington St has yet to play a good team or on the road. The last few years it has seemed to me that Washington St has been able to shut down a good offense and win a low scoring game but they have struggled when they have to overcome both a good offense and defense.
Purdue vs Oklahoma Over 138 (Purdue will have no answer for Griffen and Purdue should be able to hit the shots UAB was missing the other day. This is the 2nd game for both teams at the Garden so they should be comfortable with the environment and I see this game being a very close well played game. I would not be shocked if this game goes into OT and I am expecting a 75 - 70 type score)
Mississippi St +3 vs Washington St. (This game is being played in Newark NJ which means Washington st is flying across the country for this game. Both of these teams play good defense but Mississippi St has the better offense. Also Mississippi has been battle tested this year (winning @ St Bonaventure which is a very tough place to play) while Washington St has yet to play a good team or on the road. The last few years it has seemed to me that Washington St has been able to shut down a good offense and win a low scoring game but they have struggled when they have to overcome both a good offense and defense.
Picks 11/28/08
I hope everyone had a nice Holiday. I am at not at my place so I will not have time for detailed writeups. Here are the picks I have so far:
UAB -3.5 over BC (I think UAB has to much spead and BC's perimeter D will struggle with UAB's guard. I don;t expect UAB to struggle shooting 2 games in a row)
Arizona St -1.5 over Baylor (Arizona St is the better defensive ball club and I expect them to dictate the pace and slow Baylor down and limit Baylor offense and win this game going away)
Virginia @ Syracuse Under 159 - I think Virgina will struggle with the Cuse zone and this game has let down written all over it after the Cuse's big OT win over Kansas. I expect a sloppy start for the Cuse which should make this larg total tough to get over.
That's it for now still looking over a few more games.
UAB -3.5 over BC (I think UAB has to much spead and BC's perimeter D will struggle with UAB's guard. I don;t expect UAB to struggle shooting 2 games in a row)
Arizona St -1.5 over Baylor (Arizona St is the better defensive ball club and I expect them to dictate the pace and slow Baylor down and limit Baylor offense and win this game going away)
Virginia @ Syracuse Under 159 - I think Virgina will struggle with the Cuse zone and this game has let down written all over it after the Cuse's big OT win over Kansas. I expect a sloppy start for the Cuse which should make this larg total tough to get over.
That's it for now still looking over a few more games.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Results 11/27/08
3 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Pushes
And the hits just keep on coming. Purdue blows a 17 point lead with 5 minutes left including fouling Rice who is not even over half court with 5 seconds left in the game. Purdue was up 9 (I have Purdue -8), he hits both free throws and we have a loss. Next we have the Stanford game, over 135, 80 points are scored in the first half. With 6 minutes and 30 seconds left in the game I need 9 points for a cover and both teams only manage to score 6. Final score Stanford 76 - Air Force 57 and we have another losing night.
And the hits just keep on coming. Purdue blows a 17 point lead with 5 minutes left including fouling Rice who is not even over half court with 5 seconds left in the game. Purdue was up 9 (I have Purdue -8), he hits both free throws and we have a loss. Next we have the Stanford game, over 135, 80 points are scored in the first half. With 6 minutes and 30 seconds left in the game I need 9 points for a cover and both teams only manage to score 6. Final score Stanford 76 - Air Force 57 and we have another losing night.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Picks 11/26/08 - Adds
Finally an under game that does not go to OT. Now for the additional picks:
Richmond vs Bradley (Neutral Site) - Line: Richmond -3
Richmond is a very scrappy team with one of the A-10 better backcourts. They were able to hold their own against Syracuse at the Dome. Bradley, on the other hand, has struggled this year being blown out by Florida, losing to the UMKC Kangaroos, losing to Wisconsin-Platteville in an exhibition game (yes a division III school), and just barely edged Florida Gulf Coast in their game. This is not the same Bradley team that was doing damage in their NCAA Tourney in years past.
The Pick: Richmond -3
Purdue vs Boston College - Line: Purdue -8
Purdue is a very good team and really locks down on defense (I can't till they play Duke). They are also averaging almost 80 a game on offensive. Boston College just played a good defensive team in St Louis and they lost 53-50 and shot only 33.3% from the field. If you take away Tyrese Rice Boston College struggles. Purdue is good enough to do just that.
The Pick: Purdue -8
Cleveland St at Florida International - Line: Cleveland St -5
Cleveland St is one of the better teams in the Horizon League and is returned 4 of their starters this season. I am making a play on this game because both of these teams have 2 common opponents already. Cleveland st fared better in those games and Florida International is coming off of a loss West Georgia and has to turn right around play the next day.
The Pick: Cleveland St -5
The last 3 picks are all totals and Overs:
Central Florida / Mississippi - Over 146 (Mississippi plays 0 defense and plays their games in the high 70's and 80's. UCF has put 70 on the board twice already this season)
Alabama Birmingham / Oklahoma - Over 143 (UAB can flat out shoot but will have no defense answer for Oklahoma and Griffen. I think this game will have a similar pace and feel to when Oklahoma played Davidson which had 160 combined points. Oklahoma has also scored over 80 in every game they have played and gave up 76 to Gardner Webb in their last game and Gardner Webb is no UAB)
Air Force / Stanford - Over 135 (Stanford is averaging 89 a game / Air Force 65. Both teams give up 70 plus. This line is low because Air Force runs a pseudo Princeton style offense which typically run down the clock. However, I expect Stanford's D to be so undisciplined that they give up layups early in the shot clock. Stanford also really attacks the lane which gets them a lot of FT's (30+ pga) and really extends the game)
I have decided to start playing 1st and 2nd half lines if I see something I really like. I will be posting those plays as well. By actually watching a first half of a game value can sometimes be found in the 2nd half. 2nd half lines also afford one the ability to hedge out a bet.
Richmond vs Bradley (Neutral Site) - Line: Richmond -3
Richmond is a very scrappy team with one of the A-10 better backcourts. They were able to hold their own against Syracuse at the Dome. Bradley, on the other hand, has struggled this year being blown out by Florida, losing to the UMKC Kangaroos, losing to Wisconsin-Platteville in an exhibition game (yes a division III school), and just barely edged Florida Gulf Coast in their game. This is not the same Bradley team that was doing damage in their NCAA Tourney in years past.
The Pick: Richmond -3
Purdue vs Boston College - Line: Purdue -8
Purdue is a very good team and really locks down on defense (I can't till they play Duke). They are also averaging almost 80 a game on offensive. Boston College just played a good defensive team in St Louis and they lost 53-50 and shot only 33.3% from the field. If you take away Tyrese Rice Boston College struggles. Purdue is good enough to do just that.
The Pick: Purdue -8
Cleveland St at Florida International - Line: Cleveland St -5
Cleveland St is one of the better teams in the Horizon League and is returned 4 of their starters this season. I am making a play on this game because both of these teams have 2 common opponents already. Cleveland st fared better in those games and Florida International is coming off of a loss West Georgia and has to turn right around play the next day.
The Pick: Cleveland St -5
The last 3 picks are all totals and Overs:
Central Florida / Mississippi - Over 146 (Mississippi plays 0 defense and plays their games in the high 70's and 80's. UCF has put 70 on the board twice already this season)
Alabama Birmingham / Oklahoma - Over 143 (UAB can flat out shoot but will have no defense answer for Oklahoma and Griffen. I think this game will have a similar pace and feel to when Oklahoma played Davidson which had 160 combined points. Oklahoma has also scored over 80 in every game they have played and gave up 76 to Gardner Webb in their last game and Gardner Webb is no UAB)
Air Force / Stanford - Over 135 (Stanford is averaging 89 a game / Air Force 65. Both teams give up 70 plus. This line is low because Air Force runs a pseudo Princeton style offense which typically run down the clock. However, I expect Stanford's D to be so undisciplined that they give up layups early in the shot clock. Stanford also really attacks the lane which gets them a lot of FT's (30+ pga) and really extends the game)
I have decided to start playing 1st and 2nd half lines if I see something I really like. I will be posting those plays as well. By actually watching a first half of a game value can sometimes be found in the 2nd half. 2nd half lines also afford one the ability to hedge out a bet.
11/26/08 Picks
It looks like I might have a big card today.
SJU vs Alabama - Line Over Under 137
The Pick: Take the Under 137. Neither of these really look to push and both teams are not great shooting teams. Score should be 65 - 60.
More picks to follow.
SJU vs Alabama - Line Over Under 137
The Pick: Take the Under 137. Neither of these really look to push and both teams are not great shooting teams. Score should be 65 - 60.
More picks to follow.
11/26/08 Results
1 Win, 3 Loses, 0 Pushes
It's nice how for the 2nd time in 2 days I pick an under, I am right, and lose the bet because of OT. Why is it that no one can hit Free thows to ice a game and why teams don't foul when up 3? No they just let the other team hit a 3 instead. News flash! it is impossible to score 3 points from the foul line. I hope Kansas loses.
It's nice how for the 2nd time in 2 days I pick an under, I am right, and lose the bet because of OT. Why is it that no one can hit Free thows to ice a game and why teams don't foul when up 3? No they just let the other team hit a 3 instead. News flash! it is impossible to score 3 points from the foul line. I hope Kansas loses.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Picks 11/25/08 -Adds
One more add for now:
Syracuse vs Kansas - Line Over / Under 151
Syracuse is an experienced team and they employ that very good zone defense. Kansas, on the other hand, is young and I expect them to struggle beating the zone. For the season, the Jayhawks are only shooting 25% from beyond the arch and I just don't think they have the shooters to destroy the Cuse zone. It should also be noted that most of the Big 12 teams play straight up man D so they do not see a lot of zone (especially nothing to the caliper of Syracuse). What this young Kansas team has done real well so far this season is play very good defense. Teams are only shooting 27.5% against them. Syracuse will be the best offensive team they have faced so far this season but I expect them to still be able to contest the Orangemen's shots. I think this total will finish in the 137 - 145 range.
The Pick: Under 151 in the Cuse / Jayhawk game
I know the public is all over Florida tonight but I still like the pick. Florida is a more experienced team and Washington is coming off a physical game with Kansas from last night. Washington's best player Jon Brockman looked really gassed at the end of the game. Florida has a deep enough front court to keep rotating in fresh bodies to play Brockman physical and has the much better backcourt. Additionally, Washington has really struggled this season losing at Portland and being whipped by Kansas last night 73-54.
Syracuse vs Kansas - Line Over / Under 151
Syracuse is an experienced team and they employ that very good zone defense. Kansas, on the other hand, is young and I expect them to struggle beating the zone. For the season, the Jayhawks are only shooting 25% from beyond the arch and I just don't think they have the shooters to destroy the Cuse zone. It should also be noted that most of the Big 12 teams play straight up man D so they do not see a lot of zone (especially nothing to the caliper of Syracuse). What this young Kansas team has done real well so far this season is play very good defense. Teams are only shooting 27.5% against them. Syracuse will be the best offensive team they have faced so far this season but I expect them to still be able to contest the Orangemen's shots. I think this total will finish in the 137 - 145 range.
The Pick: Under 151 in the Cuse / Jayhawk game
I know the public is all over Florida tonight but I still like the pick. Florida is a more experienced team and Washington is coming off a physical game with Kansas from last night. Washington's best player Jon Brockman looked really gassed at the end of the game. Florida has a deep enough front court to keep rotating in fresh bodies to play Brockman physical and has the much better backcourt. Additionally, Washington has really struggled this season losing at Portland and being whipped by Kansas last night 73-54.
Indiana sure does suck
I am shocked SJU has 80 points right now.
Add: Texas vs ND over 138.5
Add: Florida -5.5 vs Washington
Add: Texas vs ND over 138.5
Add: Florida -5.5 vs Washington
Picks 11/25/08
First pick to start off the day:
Saint Joseph's vs Indiana (Maui Invitational) - Line Over / Under 130
Both of these teams do not have players good enough to routinely create their own shot so both teams are forced to burn the clock while they run offensive sets. I really think this will be a half court game with score like 65 - 55 (No OT please).
The Pick: Under 130 in the SJU vs Indiana game.
More picks to follow.
Saint Joseph's vs Indiana (Maui Invitational) - Line Over / Under 130
Both of these teams do not have players good enough to routinely create their own shot so both teams are forced to burn the clock while they run offensive sets. I really think this will be a half court game with score like 65 - 55 (No OT please).
The Pick: Under 130 in the SJU vs Indiana game.
More picks to follow.
Results 11/25/08
3 Wins; 1 Loss; 0 Pushes
Pick: Valparaiso vs La Salle Under 141
Result: Loss - Valpo 70 - La Salle 75 (OT)
Pick: Notre Dame vs Indiana Over 135
Result: Win - ND 88 - Indiana 50
Pick: Texas -9 vs Saint Joseph's
Result: Win - Texas 68 - SJU 50
Pick: UCONN -5 vs Wisconsin
Result: Win - UCONN 76 - Wisc 57
My first real bad beat of the season thanks to stupid La Salle. They had so many chances to clinch a win in regulation (and the under) but could not hit their free throws. They even had 2 Ft's when the score was tied with 2 seconds left in regulation and missed both. The score was 58 - 58 going into OT but the teams somehow scored a combined 29 points in the 5 minutes of OT. WTF they were averaging 15 pts per 5 minutes and I had a 25 pt cushion.
Pick: Valparaiso vs La Salle Under 141
Result: Loss - Valpo 70 - La Salle 75 (OT)
Pick: Notre Dame vs Indiana Over 135
Result: Win - ND 88 - Indiana 50
Pick: Texas -9 vs Saint Joseph's
Result: Win - Texas 68 - SJU 50
Pick: UCONN -5 vs Wisconsin
Result: Win - UCONN 76 - Wisc 57
My first real bad beat of the season thanks to stupid La Salle. They had so many chances to clinch a win in regulation (and the under) but could not hit their free throws. They even had 2 Ft's when the score was tied with 2 seconds left in regulation and missed both. The score was 58 - 58 going into OT but the teams somehow scored a combined 29 points in the 5 minutes of OT. WTF they were averaging 15 pts per 5 minutes and I had a 25 pt cushion.
Monday, November 24, 2008
11/24/08 Picks - Cont.
Add:
Notre Dame / Indiana (Maui Invitational) - Line Over / Under 135
Notre Dame is a very good offensive team with suspect defense. Lucky for us they struggled from the field in their last game only scoring 65. Given that ND is coming off of close game (they clearly had looked past their opponent) and the fact that Indiana is an instate rival, I expect them to be focused and come out firing. Indiana not only lost their coach they lost their whole team as evey scholarship player from last season flew the coup. The Hoosiers are very young and will not be ready to handle a team as talented as ND. The line in this game is ND -15 (I would not be surprised if they won by 20+) which seems about right but I believe the total is off. ND should easily get 75+ (I expect 80) so Indiana only needs to get yo 60 for the cover. ND's D is not good enough to routinely keep their opponent from hitting 60, especially in rout (it is natural to slack a little on D at the end of a blow out).
The Pick: Take the Over 135
Notre Dame / Indiana (Maui Invitational) - Line Over / Under 135
Notre Dame is a very good offensive team with suspect defense. Lucky for us they struggled from the field in their last game only scoring 65. Given that ND is coming off of close game (they clearly had looked past their opponent) and the fact that Indiana is an instate rival, I expect them to be focused and come out firing. Indiana not only lost their coach they lost their whole team as evey scholarship player from last season flew the coup. The Hoosiers are very young and will not be ready to handle a team as talented as ND. The line in this game is ND -15 (I would not be surprised if they won by 20+) which seems about right but I believe the total is off. ND should easily get 75+ (I expect 80) so Indiana only needs to get yo 60 for the cover. ND's D is not good enough to routinely keep their opponent from hitting 60, especially in rout (it is natural to slack a little on D at the end of a blow out).
The Pick: Take the Over 135
Picks 11/24/08
I have put Saturday behind me and I am now ready to move on after a day off. Here are the 2 plays I so far have:
La Salle / Valparaiso (Neutral Site) Line: Over / Under 141
This will be both teams 3rd game in 4 days. The most points that have been scored in a Valpo game is 139 this season. La Salle games have gone over the 141 total 2 out of 4 games but one of those games went to over time (total was 130 at the end of regulation) and the other was their game against UCONN in which the Huskies shot 40 free throws and both teams shot better from 50% from the field. Neither of these teams look to run and throwing in the possibility that some players may have lost their legs should keep this game in the 60's. I was hoping for the line to be 135 so I was happy to see 141.
The Pick: Take the Under 141
Saint Josephs / Texas (Maui Invitational) Line: Texas -9
I could write a novel on this game. Saint Joe's only consistent scoring option is their Center Ahmed Nivens following the departure of Pat Calathes and Robert Ferguson. Saint Joe's is very thin (and inexperienced outside of Nivens) in the front court. Their defense is predicated on switching and too many of the players seeing minutes are in-experienced. Rebounding is also I major question with this squad. Texas has the size to contain Nivens and will force someone else to step up and score but no one has shown the consistent ability to do this. Also if Texas presses (which I would expect them to do), Saint Joe's will struggle to get the ball up the court and get into their offensive sets. I was expecting a line of -13 in this spot.
The Pick: Lay the points; Texas -9
La Salle / Valparaiso (Neutral Site) Line: Over / Under 141
This will be both teams 3rd game in 4 days. The most points that have been scored in a Valpo game is 139 this season. La Salle games have gone over the 141 total 2 out of 4 games but one of those games went to over time (total was 130 at the end of regulation) and the other was their game against UCONN in which the Huskies shot 40 free throws and both teams shot better from 50% from the field. Neither of these teams look to run and throwing in the possibility that some players may have lost their legs should keep this game in the 60's. I was hoping for the line to be 135 so I was happy to see 141.
The Pick: Take the Under 141
Saint Josephs / Texas (Maui Invitational) Line: Texas -9
I could write a novel on this game. Saint Joe's only consistent scoring option is their Center Ahmed Nivens following the departure of Pat Calathes and Robert Ferguson. Saint Joe's is very thin (and inexperienced outside of Nivens) in the front court. Their defense is predicated on switching and too many of the players seeing minutes are in-experienced. Rebounding is also I major question with this squad. Texas has the size to contain Nivens and will force someone else to step up and score but no one has shown the consistent ability to do this. Also if Texas presses (which I would expect them to do), Saint Joe's will struggle to get the ball up the court and get into their offensive sets. I was expecting a line of -13 in this spot.
The Pick: Lay the points; Texas -9
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