Thursday, November 13, 2008

CFB Picks 11/13/08

Here are today's free sport betting picks:

Virginia Tech at Miami - Line Miami -4.0


Virginia Tech reminds me of West Virginia; if you limit their ground game you limit their success.

The Pick: Miami's D only gives up 113.2 yards a game on the ground and while not a great passing team they should be able to move the ball through the air well enough to get the cover at home. Take Miami -4 and watch that Pick Cover.

Wyoming at UNLV - Line 47 points Over/Under

Folks we have what I like to call a perfect storm betting scenario. The line is 47 pts because Wyoming averages 11.8 ppg and UNLV 26.4 ppg. But let's dig deeper. Both defenses are rather weak: Wyoming gives up 28 ppg and is softer against the pass. UNLV gives up 33.5 ppg and is softer against the run. Ok so who concedes the bad offenses or the bad defenses? It's the bad defenses. Wyoming can score points when they can run the ball its just that they have faced a lot of good run defenses. 2 weeks ago they finally got to play a bad one and they gashed SDSU for over 300 yards on the ground and scored 35 pts. UNLV's D gives up 230 yards on the ground per game. If UNLV only scores their average 26 pts ppg (I think they will go higher at home and against a poor D) than Wyoming only needs to chip in 21 for the over cover.

The Pick: Just like good defenses usually shut down good offenses; bad defenses usually make bad offenses look good. Take the OVER and cheer for both teams to score.

No comments: