Picks 11/19/08

This should hopefully be the last time I change thee blog layout. Since I doubt anyone is going to this site for the cosmetics I decided to go with the layout that is easiest to read.

There are only 12 games with lines today. This can be both a good thing and a bad thing. The less lines there are the more likely Vegas set a good number. However, the less games the more likely the public is piling on the same couple of games and moving lines to create value. Also, the less games the more time I can spend on researching each game. On to the picks:

Northern Iowa @ Illinois-Chicago - Line: Illinois-Chicago -5.5

Northern Iowa opened the season by beating Denver (not a great team) by only 5 (they were a 15.5 point favorite). Illinois-Chicago opened up at Bradley and lost by 6 (they were a 4.5 dog) despite Bradley having 27 more free throw attempts (I did not see the game so I do not know if any home-cooking was involved). Illinois-Chicago lost 2 starters from last years team but returned their best big man Scott VanderMeer and guard Josh Mayo. Northern Iowa , on the other hand, lost 3 starters including their best guard/player Eric Coleman (12.3 ppg, 8.8 reb, 2 at). These two teams met last year at Northern Iowa with Illinois-Chicago winning the contest 70 – 58. In that game, the departed Coleman scored 26 pts and 11 rbs and they still lost by 12. Go with the home team that won this game on the road last year and pick Illinois-Chicago.

The Pick: Illinois-Chicago -5.5

Wofford @ Clemson - Line: Clemson -22

Wofford played Dayton close losing 49-52 in their first game. In some was Dayton is a poor man's Clemson. They are both athletic teams only Clemson is a better shooting team. This line has moved a ton since opening at 15 at one Vegas book. My guess is the public is throwing their cash on one of the only teams they have heard of that has a line tonight. Clemson will win this but 22 just seems way to rich of line to cover.

The Pick: Wofford +22 (This line could move even higher so you might want to wait close to tip)

Morehead State @ Drake - Line +15 & O/U 124

Drake has played 1 real game a 2 exhibition games. The real game was a loss to Butler at home where they scored 48. In the two exhibition games they scored 77 and 57 against two teams I have never heard of. In fact the game against Arkansas Tech they only won 57-51. Morehead has played 2 real games and 1 exhibition. They scored 48 against Vanderbuilt, 54 against UL Monroe, and in the exhibition 84 against Carleton U (Who?). Drake played a very good zone defense last year and while they are struggling to score (due to lost personal) the defense should carry over to this season. This just becomes a math situation. The max amount of points I can see Drake scoring is 65 that means Morehead only needs to get to 50 to cover the spread. As for the over under, assuming Drake can get to 65 (not sure they even can) Morehead would need to get to 60 for this total to go over. Placing both wagers also serves as a but of a hedge because if this game does go over that more than likely means Morehead covered the line.

The Picks: Morehead +15 & The Total Under 124 (I can see the +15 going to as many as 16)

Niagara @ Villanova - Line: Over / Under 160.5

Nova scored 107 against Fordham last game but they did it shooting 60% as a team. 65 of the 107 came from Nova's front court which is not their strength; it is their guards. I just not see anyway possible that Dante Cunningham scores 31 again or the team shoots 60%. I think 80-85 is a more likely number from Nova tonight. That leaves 75 for Niagara and the score will still go under. Niagara's strength is also their backcourt but their backcourt is not even close to the caliber of Nova's. In fact Niagara starts Bilal Benn who had to transfer out of Nova because he was not getting any playing time. So Niagara backcourt will be guarded by an even better backcourt. I think this score will be something like 85 - 68.

The Pick: Take the under 160.5

South Florida @ Virginia - Line: Over/Under 145.5

This line is inflated because Virginia scored over 100 against VMI. Kentucky also scored 100 against VMI and followed that up with 58 against UNC. Scoring points against VMI does not mean anything they gun and play no D.

The Pick: Take the under 145.5 (i think this total keeps dropping so bet it now)

(I do not have time to proof read this post).