Picks 11/14/08

My first glance was wrong and I have found some games I like. In general most of the spreads look to high for the favorite to cover. This happens because the public bets the name teams and their schools and the books just want to balance the action so they put up a high number. Here is what I have for now. Short explanations today since I do not have a lot of time.

Central Michigan @ Princeton - Line Central Michigan - 3.5

The Pick: I am fading Princeton here. Until they prove they have gotten better from last year take the team from the better conference and make a play on Central Michigan -3.6.

Missouri St @ Auburn - Line Auburn -8

The Pick: Auburn has good guards, plays tough D, and plays at home against a team with some injuries. Lay the points and take Auburn -8

Georgia St vs Bowling Green (Neutral Site Game) - Line Georgia St -2

The Pick: Bowling Greens returns all 5 starters but their top two players and scores are suspended for this game. Georgia St. returns 4 of their starters from last year. Bowling Green does not have the depth to overcome suspensions so make a play on Georgia St -2.0

Appalachian St vs UNC Wilmington (Neutral Site Game) - Line Pick'em

UNC Wilimington lost 4 starters and has a lot of question marks heading into this season. Appalachian St returns 4 solid players an 18 win team. I say side with experience and take Appalachian St in the pick'em.

Northern Colorado @ Oregon - Line Oregon -17
E Washington @ Illinois - Line Illinois -19.5
Jacksonville St @ South Carolina - Line South Carolina -22
Arkansas St @ Mississippi -20

The Picks: There is a common theme in all of these games: Big name teams with some question marks being asked to cover big lines. To cover lines this big you usually need to score 70+ pts and I am not sure any of these teams will be run and gun (except Ole Miss but Arkansas st has a good coach and a solid squad). Take the points and go with the underdogs and bet Northern Colorado (+17), E Washington (+19.5), and Jacksonville St (+22), and Arkansas St (+20)

I will be out scouting a local team live tonight. Once my questions are answered about this squad we should have a series of plays.