Picks 11/18/08

I have put yesterday behind me and I am hoping for a good run tonight. I had UPENN +2 this morning so that game ended in a push. Now for the picks:

Florida St @ LaSalle - Line: Over / Under 141.5

The Pick: Both of these teams struggled in their opener. Florida St is young and gone is LaSalle's Darnell Harris. I watched a lot of LaSalle games last year and the offense was run through Harris and his incredible range. Without Harris and given Florida St's lack of experience I just see this as a low scoring affair. Take the Under.

South Alabama @ Mississippi - Line: Over / Under 151.5

The Pick: Both of these teams like to run and put up major points in their exhibition games. South Alabama scored 87 in their first game while giving up 79. Mississippi was able to score 65 in the first game despite being only 3-19 in 3 pointers. I think the winner in this games gets to 85-90 and the loser chips in 70+. Take the Over.

CSU Northridge @ Stanford - Line Stanford - 11

The Pick: CSU Northridge turned the ball over 22 times in their opening win over Cal Lutheran. That won't cut it against Stanford. Value has been created in this line because Stanford failed to cover a 12.5 pt line against Yale (they won by 8) but Yale is an improved team (Andy Katz even picked them to win the Ivy League). Law the points and take Stanford to cover.

Loyola Chicago @ Purdue - Line Purdue -19

The Pick: Purdue has played two games and won big in both. Before beating Georgia (who is in a dogfight as I type this post with Eastern Michigan who Purdue blew out) Loyola lost to a division 2 squad. Purdue is at home, Loyola will have a hang over from last night's win (probably one of the biggest "name" wins in school history), and Purdue has proven they can run a score up. Purdue -19.

Mississippi Valley St / James Madison (Neutral Court) - Line JMU -10.5

The Pick: JMU really let me down last night but I am not going to give up on them. JMU's starting guards all had an off shooting nights against Davison. MVS has already lost by 26 to Arizona St, 51 to Washington St (they scored only 25 pts) and 41 to Oaklahoma. JMU is a better team then they showed against Davidson and MVS does not have Stephen Curry (he dropped 33 on JMU last night). So in summary, while JMU screwed me last night they at least lost bad enough to set up a value bet tonight. Take JMU to cover 10.5.

I am running out of time so here are the last two plays:

Buffalo @ Canisius - Take the Under 136
Portland U @ Portland St - Take the Over 141.5

I might have a play on the Georgia Southern / UTEP game or Wisc Green Bay / Utah. So check back later.