Picks 11/20/08

I made these wagers last night as soon as the lines came out so my the lines listed here may not still be available (hopefully are not available since I bet them in anticipation of moves against my leans). Here is what I have so far; It's our first all chalk day:

Illinois @ Vanderbuilt - Line: Vandy -5

Every year I can count on one thing come march: picking Vandy to lose their first round game in the tourney. How do they get into the big dance you ask? They win at home. Vandy is one of the toughest places to play in all of college basketball. Throwing in the fact A.J. Ogilivy returned to Nashville and will be the best player on the floor makes this an easy decision for me.

The Pick: Vandy -5

Tennessee Chattanooga / Memphis (Played in Puerto Rico) Line: Memphis -21.5

I watched that whole Memphis vs. UMASS game and there are going to be some good opportunities to bet against Memphis. They are very athletic, have great length, and speed; but they can not shoot from the outside at all. Plus their stable of Freshmen (like most Freshmen) need to work on their mechanics. As long as they can force turnovers, run, and get to the basket they will be fine but I now have my eye out for the right team to derail this squad; but it is not Chattanooga. Chattanooga runs and guns, turns the ball over 20+ times a game, has a 28 point loss (75-103) to Missouri, and a 39 point loss to Tennessee (75-114); who is a decent comp to Memphis btw.

The Pick: Memphis - 21.5

Southern Illinois / Duke (played at the garden) - Line: Duke -12.5

Conflict of interest alert: I hate Duke, they are the evil empire. That being said, I see an easy cover here. I think this line would have been higher had Duke not played a close game with Rhode Island. The thing about that game is RI's Jimmy Baron shot 8-10 from behind the arc and Duke still won by 3 despite having an off night from behind the arc themselves. If someone from Southern Illinois can hit 8-10 from 3 than I will tip my hat. Now, if Southern Illinois still had Randal Faulkner and Matt Shaw and played the great D from 2 seasons ago I would be on their side but they don't. They gave up 73 to UMASS and were losing bad at one point in that game before UMASS's short bench caught up to them.

The Pick: Duke -12.5

Cal Poly SLO @ Rice - Line: Rice -3

This one is rather simple. Rice played a close game losing to an improved Portland St (who is now 2-0 following a road win at Portland as a 9 point dog) by 4 their first time out while Cal Poly SLO lost at home to Arkansas-Little Rock 67-40. Based on the line moves from Rice's first game it appeared that smart money was on Rice right before tip off. Here is an interesting Cal Poly news nugget I found:

"Cal Poly recruit Anthony Di Loreto did not enroll this fall after being arrested on bank robbery charges over the summer. Di Loreto, a 7-footer from Hopkins High School in Minnetonka, Minn., was the alleged getaway driver in the Aug. 16 robbery of a bank in Danbury, Wis. Di Loreto, 18, reportedly was charged with bank robbery and possession of a sawed-off shotgun. He helped Hopkins finish 26-2 last season and was viewed as one of Cal Poly's more intriguing recruits." (Source USA Today)

The Pick: Rice -3

I wish the Xavier Missouri game was on TV.