- This blog is for entertainment purposes. I am simply providing information and my views on which teams will cover. Any use of my recommendations is at the discretion of the user and I am not saying to bet these sides; always do your own research and due diligence.
- Initially this blog will consist of picks covering strictly Men's NCAA basketball, the sport that I believe I have the greatest +EV.
- I will post my picks as soon as I have a play on a game and at the line that I am able to get at that time.
- I will try and provide a write-up explaining my logic for each pick but will not guarantee this.
- I believe in proper bank roll management and urge never betting more than 2% of ones bankroll on any single game.
- I also recommend always betting the same amount on each game (one unit per contest). Yes, employing Kelly’s Criteria will result in greater maximization of profits; however this is if and only if one can quantify the exact amount of edge that they have in each game and I am not sure this is possible. Once you start to vary the number of units per game the only games that really matter are the high unit games.
- My picks will not always cover and there will be winning and losing streaks. The goal is to grind a wining percentage greater than 53% (the break-even point with 10% juice) over a large number of games. I am strictly concerned with generating profits and not winning percentages.
- The most important element to my handicapping formula is the eye test. I need to watch the teams and get a feel for them so things could be dicey in the early part of the season.
- Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
- Always shop for the best line.
3 years ago
