College Basketball Picks - November 20, 2009

I am playing:

Villanova -5 vs Dayton (neutral site)
Nova vs Dayton Over 144

I have leans on BC and La Salle. Check back to see if they become plays.

College Basketball Picks - November 19, 2009

3 Wagers have been made:

California -1 vs Syracuse (Madison Square Garden)
Rider +5 @ Virginia
South Florida -1.5 vs Davidson (Charleston, SC)

I plan to keep my eye on these for any line movements.

Back for Year 2!

I am back for another year of NCAA Basketball action. I am pretty happy with last years results because I was able to break even and learn a lot. My winning percentage continued to climb each month last year so I hope to turn the corner and have a profitable year. I lost a lot of units in Nov and Dec last year so I have decided to try and tread much lighter early on this year (hence why I have yet to even bet a game so far). Don't be surprised if I do not have any plays for days at a time. Also expect more 2nd half wagers this year (maybe I will open a twitter account to get them out in a more timely fashion).

Here is to a profitable 09-10 NCAA Basketball Season!

Picks 3/28/09

Here is what I have for today:

Pitt -2
Pitt vs Nova Over 141
Uconn vs Missouri Under 150
Uconn vs Missouri Under 71 1st Half

I might add Pitt for the 1st half as well.

ADD: Arizona +5.5 1ST Half

Picks 3/27/09

So far I have locked in:

Syracuse +1
Michigan st -1

ADD: Villanova Team Total Pts Over 31.5 - 2nd Half

More Plays

Missed a middle opportunity on the 2nd half Uconn total. I am adding:

Memphis -4
Villanova +2.5
Memphis vs Missouri UNDER 141

I am still considering Memphis for the 1st half as Missouri has been a better 2nd half team this year.

ADD: Uconn -6.5

ADD: Pitt -3.5 1st Half

2 More ADDS:

Pitt -6.5
UConn vs Purdue UNDER 62 1st Half

Picks 3/26/09

Here is only play I have locked in so far:

UConn vs Purdue Total Under 134.5

Check back for more plays.

2 More

ADD:

USC +4
USC vs Michigan St OVER 129

ADD: Missouri -3

Expect possible 2nd half plays on this game. I am also leaning towards USC +4 and the over in that game.

ADD: Dayton vs Kansas OVER 70.5 2nd Half

This game has been played really quick with no one making a thing. I am banking on the speed keeping up and the shooting to improve.

Additional Play

I am adding:

Pittsburgh Team total over 80.5

Additional Plays

Here is what I have so far:

Dayton vs Kansas OVER 133: I think this will be played at Kansas' speed and I actually think Dayton's offense is beter at a faster pace.

Xavier -3 : From the games i have watched this team is comfortable playing in the half court

Arizona -2.5: I like that they play zone as Clevland St is not great from deep

ADD: Cuse vs ASU UNDER 74 2nd Half

Yesterday 2nd half overs were 8-0, but I like the under here.

No Play for the Cuse vs ASU game

I lean to to Syracuse but these teams are too similar in style. Maybe I will have something after I watch the first half.

ADD: Duke vs Texas OVER 139

This Purdue game is good. Just missed the UNC over. Needed 4 points with 1:10 left but LSU stopped fouling.

ADD: Purdue vs Washington OVER 75 2nd HALF

Love the pace in this one. Counting on there being more fouls called. Not loving how Oklahoma has looked so far and the UNC over appears to be in bad shape as well.

More Plays

So it is safe to say I was a bit wrong about the scoring in the Memphis game.

Other games I have locked in:

Oklahoma -7
Gonzaga -11
LSU vs UNC OVER 158
Purdue vs Washington OVER 139.5

ADD: Memphis vs Maryland Under 61 1ST Half

ADD: Nova vs UCLA OVER 77.5 2nd Half

Picks 3/21/09

I haven't been able to get much traction with this tournament so far. I am going to take the bait and bet: Villanova -2

I have also locked in Memphis -9

More possible plays to follow.

ADD: Louisville -12 2nd Half

ADD: Louisville -21

This might be close for a half by Morehead turns the ball over too much.

ADD: Missouri -6.5 2nd half

Additional Plays

I am adding:

West Virginia -9 for the game
West Virginia -5 1st half

3-2-1 start so far. The 2 loses and push all came down to the final seconds but the ball did not bounce my way. The good news is that I won't be able to lose any more money on Tennessee games; so much talent yet no discipline.

NCAA Tournament Picks: Friday March 20

I went 7-6 on Thursday. I had the right idea about the game totals going over (they were 10-6) but poor execution as the ones I bet went 2-4. I like a lot of plays tomorrow so I am hoping for a good day as the season is coming to an end.

Friday's plays that are locked and loaded:

Arizona +1.5

Syracuse -11.5 (SFA can not shoot the 3 at all which is not bad news when playing the Cuse)

Syracuse -6.5 1st Half

Ohio St -3

Tennessee -2 (Let's see if they can screw me again)

USC -2.5

North Dakota St +10 (They might take this game outright)

North Dakota St / Kansas : OVER 144

Arizona / Utah : OVER 134

Cornell / Missouri : OVER 145.5

Marquette -4.5

In an effort to provide full disclosure here are the rest of my leans for tomorrow: Cleveland St +8, Louisville -21, Louisville 1st half -11.5, Ohio State vs Siena Under 142.5, West Virginia -9, Missouri -12.5, Florida St -2.5, Pitt Over 148, Tennessee Under 73.5 1st half. As always check back for 2nd half wagers and additional adds.

ADD: Western Kentucky vs Illinois OVER 68 2ND Half

ADD: UCLA vs VCU : OVER 136.5

Picks 3/19/09 - NCAA Tournament

I hope everyone has their brackets filled out. It is almost 5am and I just locked in my plays for Thursday's games. I still have some leans for the late games and 2nd half wagers are always in play.

Most of my leans / plays on totals for the next two days are on overs. When teams meet in their conference tournament games it is the 2nd or 3rd time they play and they are really familiar with the oppositions plays and sets and defend them better. In the Big Dance, teams play non conference opponents (at least for the first round or 2) and are just not as familiar. I believe this favors the offense and I think this has been evident in the totals from the NIT and CBI games thus far.

I have not really looked into the 1st half lines yet but will probably do so as the games are going on tomorrow. I will have Friday's plays up before I go to bed tomorrow night.

Drum Roll Please:

North Carolina vs Radford : OVER 163.5 (I bet this before the Lawson news and could have done a point better) (still like the play as UNC could go for 110 in this one and the pace should be torrid)

Butler vs LSU : OVER 127 (Scary Bet)

Memphis vs CS Northridge : OVER 131.5 (Scarier bet - Memphis games go under because their defense is unreal and they "struggle" on offense at times but they should have no problem scoring in this one (I expect 80 ish) and given the quick pace CS should be able to back into 55 - 60.)

Clemson vs Michigan : OVER 137.5

Washington vs Miss St: OVER 148.5

BYU -2.5

American +17

California Pick'em (I locked this one in before the steam move)

Washington -6

Western Kentucky -5

Gonzaga -12.5

ADD: Richmond Vs St John's UNDER 72 (2nd Half)

Picks 3/18/09

Here are my NIT / CBI plays for tonight. I hope to break the recent skid:

Miami @ Providence: OVER 147.5

Georgetown @ Baylor: UNDER 136.5

College of Charleston @ Troy: OVER 156

St John's @ Richmond: UNDER 132

That is all for now. I am still capping tomorrows games.

Picks 3/17/09

I have 3 none NCAA Tourney Plays for Tuesday. I don't anticipate playing the play in game but I might have a couple NIT or CBI plays for Wed.

Tuesdays Plays:

South Carolina -3.5
Niagra -4
Washington St @ St Mary's : UNDER 120

NCAA Tournament Time

Sunday was a disappointing end to conference tournament week. Giving back 2 units and losing the FSU future bet sucked. It was still a profitable week picking up 9 units but I feel like it should have been a better week.

Now for the Real Tournament. I plan to spend the next 2 days capping these games and I hope to have my initial set of picks up by Wed morning. There is always a chance I will add more plays after the initial post but I will post everything as soon as I place the wager. This could mean that I post before Wed if I lock something in now in anticipation of a line movement. Trying to figure out which lines are going to move (in order of getting the best price) is going to be tough.

Let's hope all the countless hours of basketball I have watched all year payoff.

No More Plays Today

No half time plays. Duke is on fire and FSU can't score, not good. There is no way to hedge any of the future at this point. Maybe FSU can come back and cover the 7 but I highly doubt it.

I like where Tennessee is at so I am letting that one ride.

ADD: Tenessee -5 Vols

Picks 3/15/09

Not many games today. Here is my play:

Florida St +7

I have FSU as a 3 point dog in this game and they are getting 7 so this is a play. FSU has the guard speed and defense to win this game. This game will probably come down to free throw disparity.

As for the FSU future to win the ACC tourney I have decided to not hedge it. Thanks to playing Duke the moneyline is -300 and I just can't get myself to hedge it out at that price when I think they have a better than 3 to 1 chance to win this game. If FSU was playing Maryland or BC, I would be hedging but Duke brings in too much public money (especially with only 4 games today).

I might add Tennessee as a play as well. I am staying away from the Ohio St / Purdue game because I think the line is pretty sharp.

Check back to see if I add the Vols and for possible half time plays.

ADD: Utah St / Nevada OVER 133.5

ADD: Temple Duquesne UNDER 76.5 - Second Half

Add: Purdue -3 (Bought the Hook)

2-1 so far but the pace and shooting is torrid in the Auburn / Tennessee game so that is not good at all and it looks like I might be headed to 2-3 after that game. Tennessee has killed me all year long, I think they have been by far my most unprofitable team.

The good news is that FSU futures which was .5 unit risked to win 7.5 units now has some value. I will probably hedge some of it. Let's go Maryland in a low scoring bought.

4 Under Plays

I have locked in 4 under Plays:

Auburn / Tennesse : Under 67 first half
Auburn / Tennesse : Under 143 Game

Duke / Maryland : Under 65.5 First Half
Duke / Maryland : Under 140 Game

ADD: North Carolina / Florida St OVER 148

I might be falling for a trap here (taking any over seems to a be trap these days) because this line is really low for a UNC game. They have not had a total this low since the 3rd game of the year. After watching yesterday's game against VT I came away thinking they miss Lawson a lot more on defense then they did on offense.

ADD: Memphis -13

Locked this in last night, and I am letting it play with the line movement.

Picks 3/14/09

First play I have locked in is:

Binghamton - 5

This bet is based on line movement so tail at your own risk.

2 More Second Half Plays

Ok two 2nd plays on the Missouri / Oklahoma St Game:

Missouri -4
2nd Half Total Under 79

ADD: Syracuse +6 Second Half

I hope I don't regret this because there is the chnage the Cuse lose their legs but West Virginia has not impressed me at all this year when they have faced a zone D.

ADD: Dayton -3

Couple More Plays

I am staying with the Michigan bet. I am adding:

Temple / Xavier Over 130.5
Florida / Auburn Over 141

Playing over in any of these tourney games can be scary but I think there is value in these lines because I expect faster tempos than the lines suggest, just need to avoid shooting performances like Wash St had last night.

ADD: Memphis / Houston UNDER 137

Memphis is the best defensive team in the nation. Last time these 2 played they went under this total. This will also be Houston's 3rd game in the 3 days and their last game went to OT last night and ended late.

ADD: UCLA / USC OVER 133

I really like this play a lot.

ADD: South Carolina / Miss St : Over 149

Kentucky is off to great start, talk about a uninspired start.

ADD: Michigan St -4 Second Half

Michigan St is starting to pull away from here and they played a good bit of that half without Morgan and Sutton who will improve their rebounding in the 2nd half.

I wish I could hedge out the UNC Under but there would be a 10 pt middle. The pace was quick but the real killer has been that every shot is falling.

Next Set of Plays

I am adding:

Florida State -4.5
Michigan +2.5 (I might buy this bet back later)


I had bet the over in the Michigan / Illinois game but bought this back when Erin Andrews just reported that Chester Frazier will not play. I quickly switched the play to Michigan +2.5 instead. As for the total Frazier does not score a lot but he is their best defender and would have covered Manny Harris. This loss should tick up the points that Michigan scores but I am scared that losing your point guard when you are about to play Michigan's zone could really hurt the amount of points that Illinois will score. So I have not decided on what the ultimate impact on the total may be (I might add the play back) and if my initial gut reaction to play Michigan (I might cancel this bet) was correct.

Picks 3/13/09

Sorry overslept. Here is me 12pm play:

North Carolina / Virginia Tech Under 156

I locked this in last night and it is a scary bet but I think VT will play slower then they did last time they played and Lawson is out.


I will start capping the rest of this card and put stuff out as I lock them in.

Late Game Play

I just locked in UCLA / Washington St : Over 122.5


I never really felt like I got much traction today (at least on the full game bets) but hopefully this will be one last winner.

ADD: Boston College +5

I might have one more play on the late Pac 10 game.

ADD: Alabama +3.5 Second Half

ADD: Maryland / NC State Under 65 First Half

ADD: Pitt -4

I am adding Penn State -8

last second add

I am adding Rhode Island -3

Stupid Nova, if you are going to blow the cover at least lose the game.

Addtional Plays

I am adding:

Arizona +4
Mississippi St -9
UAB -9

That is probably it up to the 6pm games.

ADD: Texas / Kansas St Under 64.5 First Half

More Plays

I am adding:

Villanova -3
Michigan -5

ADD: Baylor +8

ADD: Louisville Under 69.5 FIrst Half

I am making it a play as I like the way the line is moving.

Picks 3/12/09

I just got in front of a computer here are my noon plays:

Northwestern +1.5
Xavier / Northwestern Over 120.5 (This is a scary bet)
Miami / Virginia Tech Under 63 First Half

I have lean to the 1st under on the Louisville game. Still deciding if I will make it a play. Nice slate of games today so keep checking back for more plays.

ADD: Oregon / Washington St - Under 56 First Half

Probably my last play of the day.

ADD: Syracuse vs Seton Hall : OVER 152

That UMASS game is a track meet. Hopefully the Dukes can pull away here.

ADD: Duquesne -3

Still looking at the rest of the night games. I might have a few more plays but this might be it.

2 Additional Futures

I have made 2 additional Futures Plays for 0.5 Units each. They are:

Wisconsin to win the Big 10 Tourney at 7 to 1
Florida St to win the ACC Tourney at 15 to 1 (They might catch a gimpy Lawson)

I am also considering Wake Forest for a half a unit as well. I like their draw getting Duke but I am concerned by their youth.

ADD: St. John's / Marquette Under 139.5

Picks 3/11/09

I should have stuck with my initial lean of the under in the Butler game. With 9 minutes left, we only needed 22 pts for the over and than both teams stopped scoring. Now for todays plays:

Saint Louis / La Salle - UNDER 128 : This game tips at noon today at Boardwalk hall in Atlantic City which is not a venue that was built for basketball. Saint Louis likes to play a slow pace and win with their defense while La Salle will play quick or slow and seems to adapt to the style that their opponent likes. I just see a real blah kinda game as the teams get used to the venue and St Louis dictates the pace.

Saint Joseph's -3.5 - I don't really like SJU's draw in the A-10 Tournament but I do think they will be able to get it done in this game. Charlotte has been a terrible road team and they do not have the size to stop Nivens. SJU really packed it in the lane the last time time these two teams played and Charlotte was able to hit 3's they usually miss (they only shoot 30% from 3).

Saint Joseph's / Charlotte - UNDER 132 : Last game both teams hit a lot of 3's and the game was called pretty tight with a lot of Ft's. Weird start time, new arena, and I played this game under at the same line in their first meeting. The pace was there for the game to go under but both teams just shot the ball better than they usually do.

Baylor -1 : I like the fact these 2 teams just played on Saturday. In that game, Baylor was a 6 pt favorite and lost at home down the stretch. I think there is good value in this line thanks to that loss. Nebraska is a really small team and they hide it by being well coached but seeing that Baylor just played them they should be able to adjust. Hopefully Baylor has not packed in their season like Cincy and Georgetwon did and shows up and plays to their potential.

DePaul / Providence UNDER 143.5 - These two teams went under this total when they played in the regular season. Thanks to Providence's zone it is important to be able to hit 3's but DePaul is ranked 329th in 3 pt shooting (29% clip). This will be Providences first game in tournament and they have to win this game so I think they will come out a little tight. I like the noon start time in this game as well.

So there you have it for the games I have locked in thus far. There has been good value in the unders so far during these conference tournaments.

ADD: Butler Over 120

This one should be fun but I am counting on the additional endless fouling that occurs when the bid is on the line. Legs should not be an issue since both teams last played on Saturday.

PAC 10 Futures Wager

I have bet 1 Unit on Arizona to win the PAC 10 Tourney at +1000. I think this team matches up well with their draw and think they can beat Arizona St and Washington. I think there is a 1 in 4 or 5 chance they make it to the finals (the Vegas spreads will dictate a smaller chance but these are my odds). Now if they get to the finals I don't really love the UCLA or Cal match ups (especially with their short bench and it being the 3rd game in a row) but I can hedge out some of the wager at that point using the moneyline or switch sides to UCLA also using the moneyline.

I was also going to bet on Wisconson to win the Big 10 but the odds have gone down and I don't think their is as much value at 6 to 1. Temple to win the A-10 was on the radar as well but they are only 3.5 - 1 now.

ADD: Over 66 2nd Half Georgetown vs SJU

ADD: Georgetown -3.5 First Half

Ok I am back in front of my computer again. I thought I would be back at 11 but no such luck and I never got a chance to revisit DePaul which sucks since they won outright.

Picks 3/10/09

There have been a rash of unders lately, yesterday had all but 1 game I think. It seems like it is starting to be reflected in the new lines. I have a busy day today so I am not sure when I will be in front of a computer again anyway here is what I locked in:

DePaul / Cincinnati - Under 128.5
Seton Hall -5.5

I may have more adds later. For some reason, I like DePual (I have this gut feeling they might win that game) I just don't know if I can stomach taking them after the St John's beating. The Butler & Cleveland St game is very interesting as well. I was hoping the total would be a little higher because I like how these 2 match up and I think there could have been a lot of value in the under. I need to spend more time on that one.

Picks 3/9/09

Small card today so I am getting these plays up early. Here is what I am playing:

VCU -3.5 : This will be a square write-up. VCU will have the best player on the court in Maynor, the game is being played in Richmond, VCU has been the best shooting team in the conference tournament so far, they are the better free throw shooting team, and VCU has been the better road team this year. My only reservation here is that George Mason should win the rebounding battle. This could be an ugly game to watch.

Siena -3.5 (this is my Play of the Day): This game will be played at Siena, Niagra just played a double OT game that ended late last night, Siena is the more experienced team having won this game last year for the bid, and they can revenge the 15 point loss they just suffered against Niagra. The fatigue in Niagra's players was evident last night as they started missing a lot of FT's in OT. This is the 3rd game in 3 days for both teams but thanks to 2 blowouts Siena has been able to rest their starters some.

College of Charleston / Chattanooga : Under 154.5 - This will be COC's 4th game in 4 days and Chatt's 3rd. A bid will be on the line so we should get maximum defensive effort.

I am also leaning to the under in the Siena / Niagra game and I am still looking at the Zags game.

ADD: Niagra / Rider Over 78 (2nd Half)

I like the pace in this game and both previous meetings this season have gone over 78 in the 2nd half. Both teams are really hitting the offensive glass which is leading to easy 2nd chances.

ADD: Wake -4.5

ADD: North Carolina -7

ADD: Illinois St / Nothern Iowa : Over 123

Picks 3/8/09

The best 2 weeks in sports are upon us (in my humble opinion). Let's turn some profit. Me first play for today is:

Western Kentucky / Florida Internation : Over 137 - These 2 teams have played 2 times this year and they combined to score 145 and 160. I actually watched the first meeting and despite not being a good team FI matches up alright with WK, well good enough to score 60 which should be the magic number here as WK should be good for at least 75.

ADD: Cleveland St / Wisc - GB : Over 131.5

In the 2 games these teams have played this year they scored 158 and 145. One game had a pace of 73 and the other 67. Both teams are senior laden so they should not come out nervous given it is a tourney game. The line is a pick'em so late fouls should come into play at the end.

ADD: West Virginia / Louisville : Over 134.5

Last time these 2 played the pace was 75. Bob Huggins just said on an interview on ESPN that they plan on attacking the press like they did in the 2nd half of the 1st game they played this year (the half they scored 38). So far this season when teams have tried to push against Louisville, they have returned the favor. This game should be close so we should get some late fouls as well.

I might have 2 more plays tonight.

ADD: Temple / George Washington UNDER 132.5

This game should be played in the half court and I expect GW to struggle to score as Temple plays a good man to man D.

ADD: Columbia -3

Columbia already beat the Quakers once at the Palestra and I think they should be able to do so again this time at home and with Tyler Bernardini out for UPenn.

ADD: College of Charleston -3

Saint Joseph's Trifecta

Ok I am going big on the SJU Fordham game with 3 bets:

Saint Joe's -13 (for the game)
Saint Joe's -7.5 (1st Half)
Saint Joe's / Fordham Over 134.5

This is a great match up for the Hawks (Nivens will have 20+) and I expect them to roll and get 75+ pts.

Adds: Picks 3/7/09

I am adding;

Iowa -3 : They play well at home and PSU is coming off that big emotional win that was a late night game on Thursday.

Syracuse / Marquette : Over 156.5 - Both of these teams like to push the pace and match up well with the opposing defense.

I am still trying to figure out what I want to do with the St Joe's game. I was looking at making 3 bets on the game but the line moved.

Free Picks 3/7/09

It is A-10 and Over day. Here are the games I have locked in before I go to bed:

California / Arizona St : Over 136 - This is my Play of the Day. Cal will light up State's zone while State scores in the lane with Harden and Pendergraph.

Iowa St -3 : Nice letdown spot for Tech following the big emotional win over Kansas.

Temple -4.5 : GW should struggle to score in this one (might play the under as well).

Kentucky / Florida: Over 147 - Neither of these teams play much D and I think both teams are better in transition. Last game had a pace of 72 (according to Kenpom) so with a little uptick in the fg% and number of free throw attempts (the last meeting was so close there was no intentional fouling at the end) should get this one over.

Stanford / Arizona: Over 144

I will most likely have plays on Saint Joe's, Iowa, and St Louis. Keep checking back for more plays throughout the day.

Friday Night Play

You would think it would be easier to find out if a guy is playing or not. As expected, Bradley had little trouble with Mullins out for Southern Illinois.

At this time of year it really important to look at home vs away stats for teams as most games are on neutral sites.

1st Play for the Night:

Illinois St -4.5

I may add Drexel minus the points as well.

Bradley -2.5 Is A Not a Play

It is off the board before and no mention of Mullins

Bradley

I am most likely playing Bradley -2.5. I am just waiting to confirm that Bryan Mullins will not be playing.

I almost hedged out the App St bet at half and they might cover but I regret not doing it.

Picks 3/6/09

We actually have a Friday with not just Ivy action. Let the tournaments begin. Here is my first play for today:

Appalachian State -7

Nice Coaching Arizona

When a team hits 16 3's, how about you switch out of your zone and play some man (2 were against man).

ADD: Villanova Game Total Over 159

That is probably it for tonight. Might have a play on the Arizona St vs Stanford game.

Additional Plays 3/5/09

I really like the under in the Saint Joe's game. The last game was a real grinder and both teams forced the other to play in the half court and deep into the clock. I just can't see that changing tonight.

Adds:

Saint Joe's @ Temple : Under 132.5
Saint Joe's @ Temple : Under 62 (First Half Wager)

Picks 3/5/09

Not that big of a card tonight. So far I have locked in:

South Carolina -2
Arizona -4.5

Still looking at a couple possible total plays.

ADD: LSU -9

I think this is a bad matchup for Vandy, hopefully this is not a letdown spot for LSU

Add: Pitt Total Over 145.5

Looks Louisville is going to fly over that total; wish I had pulled the trigger on that one.

Picks 3/4/09

Just got my Internet working again. Cost me +4 units last night as I was not able to get my bets in for the late games (unders were hitting all over the place last night). Note to self, write down your books phone number.

Games locked in thus far:

North Carolina Over 160.5
Pitt -9.5
BYU -8.5
Memphis Under 140
Missouri Over 153
Arkansas -4.5

The Memphis under is probably my favorite. Every time they have played a team for the second time this year that team has scored less then they did the first time.

Other leans are: Over in La Salle, Over in Louisville, LSU -9, Kansas -10, Texas A&M -7, Pitt Over.

Check back to see if any of these leans become plays.

Picks 3/3/09

Here are my plays for the 7pm games:

Cincy / South Florida : Under 122
Michigan St / Indiana : Under 132.5

Some more possible plays to follow but be forewarned I like a lot of unders tonight which can be painful at the end of games with fould and OT.

Add: Missouri -2.5 2nd Half

Add: Under 139 In Saint Joe's Game

Picks 3/1/09

Here is what I have so far:

Flroida -4.5
Providence -3

Last Play for another crappy Saturday

Adding California +3 2nd half

Add: Utah State -1

May play the bears 2nd half +3

ADD: Richmond-7

Adding: LSU +4.5 2nd Half Wager

Adding: BYU -6

ADD: Duke Under 143.5

ADD: Wake Forest -6.5

2nd Half Play

I am playing the 2nd half Over 74.5 in the Nova Georgetown game. The pace started to pick up and the the teams combined for 1-16 3's and this game looks like it will be close so late fouls are in play.

Early Add

I am adding DePaul -1.5.

Picks 2/28/09

The month is coming to an end and I hope to finish it off with a profitable day. Same drill is always for a Saturday, will be posting picks throughout the day as I place them. Here is what I have locked in before I go to bed:

Southern Miss @ Memphis - Under 132

Georgetown @ Villanova - Over 142

Auburn @ Mississippi St - Over 141.5 : This will be my play of the day. These teams are very similar in style and it leads to a track meet.

Drexel -1.5 : Drexel beat them once already and from what I have seen of W&M they struggle with guards who defend well which the Dragons have.

Oklahoma St -2

Let's Go Points

Locking in UAB was correct (it is now 4) but UCLA (now 5.5) and Arizona (now +3) moved against me. I don't care too much about Zona since I expect to win the game but I wouldn't mind having that extra point in the UCLA game.

This is my biggest Thursday card all season so I am a but nervous. I also have all Overs which has not worked out well in the past. Hopefully offenses explode tonight. Here are the rest of my plays:

Washington -4
Purdue @ Michigan Over 124
La Salle @ Temple Over 134
Xavier @ Saint Joe's Over 133
NC State @ Wake Over 152

I also lean to the over in the UCLA game and I might add this late night.

Picks 2/26/09

I should have had a much better night. I did a poor job of narrowing down my leans and left a lot of profit on the board.

I have locked in a number of plays tonight before I go to bed because I think the lines will move:

Arizona +2 - Arizona is playing really well right now and this is a great let down spot for Washington St following the big UCLA win.

Arizona St @ Washington - Over 140.5 - Last game Washington negated Arizona St's zone by beating it down the court and Washington's guards were much quicker than State's (Hardon excluded) and were able to penetrate the zone when it was setup. I don't see how things can change for this game (speed kills) and I will be playing Washington minus the pts as well (just waiting to see what the line does).

UCLA -6.5

USC @ California - Over 135.5

UAB +5

Check back tomorrow for more plays. I have 6 other leans I am looking at. I usually don't have this many plays on a Thursday so hopefully this does not blow up in my face.

Adding: Nova / DePaul Umder 146.5

I am not feeling that great about how some of the early bets look at half.

Last of the 7 pm Plays

East Carolina -1
Rhode Island -6.5

Some Additional Plays

I have also locked in:

Duke @ Maryland Over 144
George Mason -12.5
Old Dominion -11.5

Picks 2/25/09

Wed's card looks promising. I have locked in 2 plays before I go to bed as I think the lines may move.

UConn @ Marquette - Over 144: This game should be "strengths" against "weaknesses". Without Dyson (who was probably the Huskies best perimeter defender) it will be tough for Uconn to hold down McNeal, Matthews, and James. On the flip side, Adrien and Thabeet should have their way inside against the Golden Eagles. I expect Marquette to really push the ball up the court and try to get to the basket before UConn can set up their big men. UConn might try and slow the pace and play in the half court but they should be able to get the ball inside with ease which will lead to made baskets earlier in the shot clock even if they do walk the ball up the court. The line is only 1 so the odds makers expect a close game which can only help with some fouls at the end.

South Florida @ Seton Hall - Under 133.5: Not much of an explanation here as I want to go to bed. South Florida plays slow as mud and has been very good at getting their opponents to play at their desired speed. Their last 6 games have gone under the total (not really relevant stat unless a team has changed their style or approach) and both teams have decent defensive efficiencies which will hopefully lead to empty possessions.

More plays to follow tomorrow as I have leans on several other totals and plays.

Added LSU -4

2 More Plays for 2/24/09

The other 2 plays I just locked in are:

Syracuse -4 : Saint John's does not shoot the 3 good enough to keep this close.

Creighton -6

That is it for now.

Picks 2/24/09

First pick of the day is the OVER 127 in the PSU / Ohio St Game.

More to Follow.

No Plays for 2/23/09

I'm not seeing anything I like. I can;t seem to figure out Georgetown and no Griffen means I am staying away from the Oklahoma game.

3rd Play

Michigan St -8


That might be it for the day. I am still looking at the Duke / Wake game. I lean Wake plus the points and the over.

2nd Pick of the Day

Temple Game Under 142.5 - I think Temple is the best defensive team in the A-1o and should be able to hold down Bonny's point total. I just hope Temple doesn't score over 80.

Picks 2/22/09

Fist Pick of the Day:

Nova / Cuse Over 158

Virginia Tech -2.5

Stanford -5 has been added to the card

May have 2 more 8pm plays

Penn vs Harvard

The pace was there in the first half for this total to go over but these teams are missing easy baskets. It is going to take a miracle for this go over now.

Pitt Game Total Over 141

I am adding the over in the Pitt game. Every way I run this game, Pitt has a least 80. So if DePaul can get to 55+ this should get over the total.

Adding: Richmond -4.5

I am looking for a letdown following the upset of Xavier for the 49ers.

Damn Siena

Adding Mississippi -10.5

Tulane -2

I am adding Tulane -2.

How brutal was the end of that Vermont game? In the end they got the cover though. The 2nd halves have been killing my total plays. Both the Miami and UAB games looked great at half. I probably should have taken off the UAB game at half since they had 43. Doubling that put the under in bad shape unless Southern Miss shit the bed again (which they did not). Oh well live and learn.

A lot of leans that I did not play (ND, UCLA Over, Delaware Over, Bulter, Bulter 2nd half ML, Missouri) hit so I could be off to great start. The loser leans were UConn, Iona, and SDSU.

I am Playing Florida -8.5

Add Vermont -3.5 (2nd Half)

Vermont came out flat but they turned it around and I expect them to pull away here. They only hit 1 3 pointer and are out rebounding Buffalo so I like those stats.

Louisville -5 is a Play

Add Oklahoma St -4.5

Other Games I have Locked in:

Utah St +5
Penn vs Harvard - Over 137.5

Kentucky is a play.

I adding Kentucky if Patterson is playing

Picks 2/21/09

I like a lot of games on this Saturday card. This day is going to make or break this month. Here is what I have locked in before I go to bed:

Boston College / Miami - Over 146
Missouri / Colorado - Over 139
Georgetown -3.5
Southern Miss / UAB - Under 138.5
Miss St / Alabama - Over 141.5
Wyoming -4
Oklahoma +1.5
Siena -6.5
Liberty +8

Out of this group of games Wyoming is my favorite. I also like Georgetown a lot. I have 6 more potential plays from the games tipping before 3:30.

ADD VCU Under 136.5

Picks 2/20/09

Couple plays today:

Harvard +5
Illinois St +3.5 - Niagra's defense has not been very good they last few games. They don't rebound very well on defense either. I will go with the team from the better conference.

I am looking at the VCU @ Nevada game. From the games I have watched VCU is the better team I am just worried about the long trip on a short rest (they played on Wed while Nevada has not played since Sat). I might play the total Under instead of backing VCU; with the hopes that both teams come out sluggish (long trip and week off).

Other 2 Plays for 2/9/09

My other 2 plays for tonight are:

Gonzaga Over 135.5 - So long as Loyola can get over 50 this one should go over

California Over 147.5

Picks 2/19/09

So far the only play I have locked in is UCLA -7.5. Check back for additional plays.

Tennesee -10

Only play for the 8pm games

7:30 Plays

Wake Forrest Over 150
Louisville Over 147
Auburn -3

Picks 2/18/09

Yesterday sucked.

Here are the my plays for the 7pm games:

Houston -5
Old Dominion -10
Florida St -3
La Salle Over 136.5
VCU Over 137

I am looking at 3 games that tip at 7:30; 3 that tip at 8pm; and 1 late night game so check back for more picks.

I am adding the 2 plays on the Kentucky Game

Vandy +1 and Total Under 135

I am adding Michigan St +2.5

Picks 2/17/09

Last time I played all overs it blew up in my face so I hope today works out better. Here are my plays for today:

East Carolina O 146
BYU Over 144.5 - Play of the Day
Austin Peay Over 148

I have leans on Michigan St +2.5, Vandy +1.5, and the Under 134 in Kentucky @ Vandy game. I am waiting on the status of Patterson before I lock in the Vandy plays. I really think Purdue's going to need to drain a lot of threes to win their game. Michigan St should own the glass and I am just not sold that Purdue's defense is as good as they appear on paper as they have not faced a lot of good offensive teams and the few they have played have scored over 60 on them (Duke & Oklahoma got into the 70's). I am just a little hesitant by the home court.

No Plays for 2/16/09

I thought long and hard about Pitt but I am too worried their front court might end up in foul trouble so I am staying away.

More Picks 2/15/09

Ok so can we forget that Butler play? They are laying a huge egg, 0-6 Ft's, 1-8 3's, and 6-18 fg's.

I am adding:

Northwestern vs Michigan - Over 123
Temple -1

Picks Sunday Feb 15th

First play of the day: Butler -10 (1st Half)

I am looking at Temple, BC, USC, and the over in the Michigan / Northwestern game (not sure I can stomach an over with these 2 teams).

2nd Half Play

Niagara -2 (2nd half) - Fairfield is missing too many players to keep this game close.

Thank You Dartmouth

For forcing OT. Here are my last 2 plays of the night:

Portland +9.5 - I am going to continue to fade St Mary's without Mills (plus they are coming off a tough loss with the Zags). I am tempted to also bet the moneyline which is 4-1.

Santa Clara -12 - Will wait closer to game time in hopes of getting 11.5.

7 pm plays

Generating lots of juice today.

Central Florida Over 131
Cornell Over 134.5

5 PM Games

California -5 (bought .5)
Creighton -3

4 PM Plays

Oklahoma St -10 (bought .5)

I will also play Purdue -6 if I know for sure Hummel is playing.

Adding South Carolina -2

Picks 2/14/09 Early Games

Another Saturday, another 100+ games. Here are my plays for the early games:

Georgia Tech -4
UCLA OVER 143
Kentucky Under 141.5
Syracuse Over 144.5

Picks 2/13/09

Not to much on the card tonight so most likely no plays. Another big sat on deck.

Picks 2/12/09 - Cont.

Gonzaga is my POD. I have added the following plays:

Arizona St +1
Northwestern +2
Arizona -3

Picks 2/12/09

I am locking this on in now: Gonzaga -3.5. The line should move as the public pounds the Zags but I think the public will be right. St Mary's could not do a thing in the 2nd half of their meeting once Mills went down. I love betting rematches when I have watched the first meeting. This will probably be my POD but I need to cap the whole card before I officially name it as such.

ADDS:

Auburn -6
St Louis -3 (bought .5)

ADD: Xavier @ Dayton OVER 128.5

Picks 2/11/09

Big card today. Here is what I have locked in so far:

POD: UNC -2. This is the type of team that Duke has not been able to beat the last 3 years.

Others:

Cuse @ UCONN: Under 150
Tulsa @ Memphis: Over 130
UMASS @ Fordham: Over 143

More plays to follow.

Picks 2/9/09

Let's hope for a lot of points tonight.

POD: Manhattan vs Iona Over 123.5 - Last time these 2 teams played there was 75 possessions, lots of missed FT's and Iona won by 20. As long as Manhattan does not shoot terrible again with a line of -1.5 this should be a close game and FT's at the end should get the total into the 130's.

Others:

Kansas @ Missouri Over 152.5
West Virginia @ Pitt Over 137


I will most likely be adding Missouri minus the points as well.

3rd Play of the Day

Today's Play of the Day:

Penn State -2: PSU played Wisconsin tough at their place earlier this year, they have been good at home, and I am playing the revenge angle here.

Add Illinois -2

No Hummel for Purdue

Picks 2/8/09

First pick of the day: Dayton -2

This line looks like it might be a trap but I just can't see the 49ers not struggling with Dayton's on the ball defense. Dayton really guards well. I lean to the under as this game could be ugly.

Last Play of the Day

Hawaii -3

10 PM Games

two plays for the 10 PM games:

California -6: Cal has been very good at home and like taking teams with good guard play against Was St.

Santa Clara +5.5: Fading SMU without Mills and on the road. Plus SC only lost by 1 @ St Mary's on Jan 9th (Mills scored 31 in that game).

8 PM Games

Tulsa -5
Youngstown St - Illinois Chicago - OVER 136

My only potential play for the 9pm games would be on the Zags game. There are a couple of games I like for the 10pm group so I may have some plays form those ones.

ADD: Xavier -5.5

Rest of the 7pm

I hate that I have so much road chalk but I like the plays:

La Salle -3.5 (this line makes no sense to me)
Cornell -5.5 (Penn stinks and Cornell is not going to go 2-17 from 3 again)
Butler -2

First 7 PM Play

I wanted to get this out now because it is my POD.

UCF @ East Carolina OVER 145 - Both of these teams are better on offense then defense. ECU has given up at least 70pts in their last 7 games and some of these teams are not as good as UCF is on offense. I expect this game to hit 150+.

4PM Games

West Virginia - Providence UNDER 148
Wyoming - Utah OVER 146.5

ADD: Arizona -3.5

Picks 2/7/09

My only pick from the games before 3pm is George Mason -4.5

Rest of Picks 2/5/09

I am adding California +1 and my POD Stanford -4.5

Picks 2/5/09

First pick of the night:

Florida St -9

I wanted to bet the under 139 in the Vandy game but the line moved down to 137 so I am going to layoff the game. I might have some late Pac 10 plays.

Picks 2/2/09

I will update my record later tonight. Here are todays plays.

POD: Baylor -1.5

Wisc GB +1
Georgia Southern -4

6PM Plays

BYU Over 159.5
Baylor Over 163

Next Play

Arizona St Over 136.5

I'm taking Texas -10

Utah -5.5 is a play

Play 4 of the day

Texas A&M -3

3rd Pick of the day

Marquette -6 has been added as a play

I'm Adding

UMASS +16 @ Xavier

Picks 1/31/09 - Games Before 2PM

1-1 yesterday. Once again, I am not sure if I will have a POD pick given that I break the Sat card down in pieces. Here are my plays for the games starting before 2PM:

West Virginia @ Louisville - Under 131

The only other games before 2pm that I may have plays on are the Xavier - Umass and Miss St - Miss games. I locked in the Under now because I think the line will drop 1 -2 points.

Picks 1/30/09

No play of the day today.

Brown @ Cornell - Over 136
U Penn @ Harvard - Over 141.5

Most likely no plays tonight

I don't like todays card

Another 1/28/09 Play

Indiana @ Northwestern Under 122

Should be my last play of the day; still looking at the Kansas St game.

1/28/09 - ADD

I am adding the Under 132 in UAB - Tulsa.

Picks 1/28/09

POD - Akron -6

The rest:

Wake Forrest +2
Akron vs Toledo Under 123
Nova vs Pitt Under 136
Drexel vs Georgia St Under 116.5

I might have 2 other total plays on the Indiana game and Tulsa game.

Picks 1/27/09

1-1 last night. Here is what I have for today:

POD - Baylor -1: I could be wrong here (look at my record I have been wrong a lot) but I really like Baylor in this spot. I am surprised by the betting splits on this one. Texas is a bit overrated in my book. They struggle to score at times, are a bad free throw shooting team, and only have two players (Abrams and James) who can hit 3's (James has been a bit inconsistent from long range too). They do play good defense but they have given up some points when they have played good offensive teams which Baylor is. Baylor is at home and I think they pull this one off.

Rest of my plays:

Miami -2
Kentucky -9 (TO's is the Achilles heel of this team but I don't see Mississippi being able to force a lot)
Eastern Kentucky -3
Eastern Kentucky vs Austin Peay Over 142 (bought the hook)

I might have a play on the Baylor total as well. I am leaning over because Texas should be able to score in the paint against Baylor just need to figure out how confident I am they can get over 70.

Picks 1/26/09

Today's plays are as follows:

POD: Akron -5 - Turnovers will be the key in this one.

Samford -6 - Situational play

Picks 1/25/08 - Adds

Syracuse not hitting any 3's is not good for business. Ok here are my other plays:

POD : Central Florida -7
Miami -6.5

What's up with that Pitt line. WV should find 2nd chance points much harder to come by in this one yet they are favored. Probably going to lay off of it.

Picks 1/25/09

First pick Syracuse -1. I just can't see Louisville shooting over the Orangmen's zone.

ADD Saint Joe's -8

Today is turning out to be a dud.

1/24/09 4 pm games

UMASS -4
VCU -7

1/23/09 Picks - 3pm Games

POD - Kentucky -6: Bama was able to win against Mississippi without Steele but Ole Miss is more depleted than Bama is. Kentucky is so good defensively and should feast on a team that now is in search for a floor leader.

Also:

College of Charleston -5.5

Picks 1/24/09 - Some early games

I am not sure if I will have a POD pick since I am capping this huge card piecemeal by time. Here are the early plays that I have so far locked in:

Arkansas -4.5: Auburn is a better team than people think but I still like Arkansas to cover this line. They have been very good at home only losing 1 game and should be motivated to get their first conference win. Lately they have been losing games because they have been outscored from beyond the arch and on the free throw line but Auburn is not very good from 3 (32.3%) and somehow manages to shoot worse from the free line than Arkansas.

Texas Tech ("TT") @ Missouri Over 158: At first I was looking at TT plus the points as this game could be a bit of let down spot for Missouri following a good road win @ Oklahoma St. However, I am concerned that TT might turn the ball over too much with Missouri's pressure D which could lead to a blowout. So instead I am turning to the over. Both of these teams play really fast so the pace should be torrid in this game. TT gave up 85 to TCU, 111 to Stanford, 96 to UTEP, and 116 to East Central. An argument can be made (and an easy one at that) that Missouri is better offensively than any of those teams and they should get over 90 in this game. That leaves 70 needed from TT which they should be able to get since Missouri gives up 65 a game and the pace of this one will be quicker than their average opponent.

Delaware vs Georgia St Over 125: Both of these teams play bad defense. This game features two teams with different styles. Delaware prefers to push the ball while Georgia St would rather play in the half court. Delaware has played at least 7 games against teams that prefer a slower pace and all but 2 (Northeastern and Old Dominion ) have gone over the posted total of 125. Well, Northeastern and Old Dominion play much better defense that Georgia St. In these games Delaware's pace has won out because they push the ball when they have it and play such bad defense the other team scores on them earlier in the shot clock.

Moneyline

Ah, Moneyline I knew it was only a matter of time before you came after me. I will be the first to admit that I was wrong about Georgetown rebounding performance in that game. I really thought WV would struggle with Monroe's length. I deserved your post so I am not going to try and refute what you wrote because you are right.

The issue I have is that you like to go around deciding who is a "square" when it can be easily be argued that you are one. Let's take a look at your results from 2007-2008:

• NFL: 70-70-3
• CFB: 97-76-4
• NBA: 99-84-4
• CBB: 185-179
• MLB: 411-432
• Euro 2008: 11-11-2
• Tennis: 0-5
• Olympic Hoops: 11-7
• Total: 884-864-18
• Win Percentage 50.57%

With 10% juice and a standard bet size; a 50.57% winning percentage equates to a losing season. The only reason you were up (and you were up substantially last season so kudos) was because you varied your betting units. Now if you actually updated your 2008-2009 record (which I am sure would be updated if you were replicating last seasons success this year) I bet there is a good chance your results are worse than your winning percentage this year and your varying bet sizes are compounding your loses. Just because you have a formula you stick too, a bunch of followers, and one good year of results doesn't mean your not a square.

Picks 1/22/09

Here are the games I have locked in:

Play of the Day – UCLA -4.5: Washington St plays good defense but so does UCLA. Washington St has struggled with athletic teams (except Oregon but they have no discipline which is needed due to the methodical nature of Washington St on both ends of the court) and UCLA has some athletes. This game could be ugly to watch but Washington St is so bad on offense that I would e shocked if they hit 55 pts in this game (45 to 50 would be my bet). Had UCLA won its last game against Arizona St I might be a bit concerned of a let-down but I love them in this spot coming off a loss and expect them to be focused and really take it to Washington St (especially in the 2nd half).

Next 2 favorite plays:

Georgetown -5: I think the UCONN game is a pretty good comp for how this game should play out. Both teams will struggle to score (but more so West Virginia) and Georgetown will pull away late for an 8 -10 pt win. I expect Georgetown to win the battle of the boards and Monroe should have his way in this affair.

Dayton -4.5: GW is just a bad team and they have struggled to score at times against good defensive teams which Dayton is. Dayton has struggled on the road this year, thus the line, but GW will not be able to put up the points needed to keep this close.

The rest:

Utah St -4
Georgetown - West Virginia Under 133.5
Washington – USC Over 135

I am looking at the Wright St – Illinois Loyola Under 114.5 and Portland -10. Also a small lean on St. Johns

Juice Juice and more Juice

Results for 1/20/09:

4 Wins; 4 Loses; 0 Pushes

Another day and another .500 record. I got burnt on my total plays again. I am thinking of adding a new feature which will be my Play of the Day. I will of course keep track of the POD record on the side of the site. I am still in the process of caping today's card. I have locked in a few plays and will be posting these later.

Picks 1/21/09

I have to be somewhere @ 1pm so no time for writeups. Big card so I have a number of plays:

Xavier -12 (bought the hook)

Buffalo -2.5

Central Florida -3

Oklahoma St -1

Baylor +3.5

Wisconsin -3

Florida / South Carolina Over 151.5

Mississippi / Alabama Under 144

I have a lean on Virgina Tech plus the points (I am waiting to see how high they go) and the Under in the Old Dominion game (again I am waiting to see if the total moves up since I would like to see 145).

Results 1/20/09

4 Wins; 3 Loses; 0 Pushes

Killed by the totals.

Last Game 1/20/09

Tennessee @ Vanderbuilt 2nd Half UNDER 75 - There was a lot of good defense in the first half and neither team shoots very well from behind the arch.

1/20/09 9PM Adds

Penn St -2
South Florida vs DePaul - Under 128.5

1/20/09 Add

Northern Illinois -5

That is my only play for the 8 o'clock games. May still have some plays on the 9pm games.

Picks 1/20/09 - Round 1

Here are the first group of picks:

Illinois -8
Boston College +2.5
Drexel vs Delaware Under 127

Picks 1/19/09

Pitt vs Cuse Under 147: Syracuse is coming off of a track meet and Pitt just had a tough physical game against Louisville so both this teams might not have their legs on a short rest. Pitt is the best defensive team the Cuse will have faced and think they will slow this down and control the pace.

Under 132 Saint Joe's vs Charlotte

Sorry I overslept

Results 1/17/09

8 Wins; 8 Loses; 1 Push

A lot of work to simply generate juice.

More plays

Penn St -5: Fade of Indiana

Drexel -7: Unc-W will struggle with the Drexel perimeter D

Drexel @ UNC-W: Under 140.5

ADDS

Kansas Over 136
Oklahoma Over 135.5

Add Florida State -4

Maryland is not playing that well as of late and is coming off a crushing loss @ Miami. They struggle with interior size and athleticism which FSU has and should find it hard to score in this game.

Picks Sat 1/17/09

Massive card today. Counting totals there are 190 different possible bets that can be made. I am going to post what I have locked in now and will continue to post additional plays as I make them.

Northeastern -3: Northeastern is red hot and just beat this team by 23 pts a couple weeks ago and nothing unusual (aka 75% 3pt shooting) occurred in the first meeting.

Georgetown +9: Duke should find it much harder to rebound in this game. The recipe to beating Duke the last several years is athleticism which Georgetown has. This line should be 5 not 9.

Duke vs Georgetown Over 137

Butler -3: Both of these teams play a little faster than their stats dictate and Illinois Chicago's defense leaves much to be desired. Butler is just the much better team and has Illinois Chicago has already lost 3 home games this year to teams less talented than Butler. Butler should be able to get to 70 in this game and I don't see IC being able to keep up as they take bad shots sometimes.

Arkansas +10.5: Florida is not good enough defensively to cover this spread. They will once again get killed on the glass and Washington should have his way in the paint against the Gators. Both teams like to run so this should be a track meet.

BYU -1.5: New Mexico is overrated. I have watched them several times on Full Court and they just do not impress me. BYU won this game on the road last year as well to a much better NM team.

Texas -6: I don't see this game being close at all. Texas will be the best defensive team TT has played all year. Texas' biggest problem this year has been putting the ball in the basket but TT sucks on the defensive end so it should not be an issue in this game.

Pittsburgh +2: Louisville has yet to prove they can hit shots from the outside but have been making a living in the lane and on the glass lately. I don;t see those same points being there today as Pitt is one of the best rebounding teams I have seen this year.

Nebraska -2: Nebraska has been very good at home and they really defend. Kansas St has been headed in the other direction lately and their guards should struggle with the atmosphere and on the ball pressure.

Michigan -3.5: Without Lighty, Ohio St should struggle to score against Michigan's zone. Mullins is a freshmen so this will be the first time he sees this defense. Michigan has also been very good at home this year.

Davidson -12: Value has been created because Davidson has not been able to cover the 20 pt spreads they have been facing. Georgia Southern sucks defensively so Curry should have no problems filling up the stat sheet in this one.

That is it for now. I still have another 10 or so more leans so expect more plays.

Results 1/15/09

1 Wins; 5 Loses; 0 Pushes

Barf

Picks 1/15/09

Here are today's picks:

Florida Atlantic -4: Florida International is winless on the road and I have surprisingly watched both of these teams and think Florida Atlantic will put too many points on the board for FI.

Purdue -4: Purdue guards the 3 really well and Northwestern has to have it to win. Northwestern is a system team and if you can take that away they are done.

Rider -3: Rider has owned this series and I don’t think Canisus will be able to keep up with Rider.

Wisconsin minus XX: The line is -6.5 right now but I am waiting to hopefully get 6.
Wisc's defense will be too much for Minny. Unlike Iowa, however, they will be able to put some points on the board while they clamp down on the Gophers

Western Kentucky -3 (I bought the hook): Western Kentucky has been money at home and should win the rebounding battle in this game which I always feel is critical.

Butler @ Loyola Chicago Over 122: Loyola-Chicago has not been nearly as good defensively against good teams which Butler is. Butler should be able to get to 65 in this game. Butler's strength defensively is taking away the 3 pt shot but Loyola does not rely on the 3 to put up points.

That's it for now. Here are the rest of my leans:

UNC -15.5 (they should be pissed and throttle Virginia)

Over 105 in the Oregon St vs Washington St (Maybe I am sucker but it is really hard to stay under this number)

Santa Clara +20 @ Gonzaga (SC is not a bad team)

Pepperdine +19 @ San Deigo (San Diego has not been able to cover a line this big all year)

Arizona St -1 @ California (ASU has really impressed me this year)

Results 1/14/09

3 Wins; 3 Loses; 0 Pushes

Hit the middle to get a push for the night.

2nd Half Play

Pitt Game under 72 2nd half bet - The 3pt shooting was insane in the first half of this game and we have a 19 middle opportunity so I am going to take it.

Picks 1/14/08 - Cont

Here is the next set of Picks:

Wake Forrest -3.5
George Mason @ William Mary - Over 119.5
Pitt @ UCF - Over 131
Arkansas +2

I don't have time for writeups but as much as I hate to take an untested road team Arkansas they will not allow Mississippi o rebound and get the same easy points in the paint that Florida did.

I am still looking at Cuse +6.5, St Louis -3.5 (Their perimeter defense should give UMASS fits), Illinois -7, and Duquesne -10.5.

Not sure how many, if any I will play.

Picks 1/14/09

Michigan State -6 over PSU

More to follow.

Results 1/13/09

4 Wins; 2 Loses; 0 Pushes

Just to clarify that Indiana bet was on the 2nd half total. The leans on Kentucky and the Kansas Over turned to be winners but 4-2 will do. How good was Jodie Meeks tonight? One of the best single handed performances I have seen.

Tomorrow's card is pretty big so lots of capping to do.

*EDIT* - I just realized I typed the wrong date in the header for some of the picks on the 13th.

Last Add for 1/9/09

I am adding the Over 140.5 in the BYU vs TCU game. I have watched TCU play and they are a little weak on the defensive side and seem to like to push the ball. BYU averages 80 ppg so I see no reason why they will not hit 80 tonight. TCU is goof enough on offense to chip in the other 61 needed for the over.

1/19/09 Additional Pick

I am adding the Under 68 in the Indiana - Ohio St game. The score is already out of hand so the scoring at the end should be slow and Ohio St shot 11 of 16 from beyond the arch which I doubt will continue.

Picks 1/13/09

Here are tonight's picks:

Bradley -3: Harry Marshall (Indiana St's best player) is most likely not playing for Indiana St and I think this is a good spot to fade them after a huge upset win over Illinois St. Throw in the fact that Bradley is the better team I think this is a good play.

North Carolina St -4: I think this is a tough spot for Florida St. They are coming off a loss against Duke and now are on the road playing an underrated NC State team. Beating Duke is a huge deal for FSU and their fans and the Seminoles exerted a lot of effort to get back into that game but still came away losers. NC State had played a number of good teams real close but they are lacking tourney resume worthy win and I expect them to be highly motivated to get their first "good" win of the season.

Kansas -6: I was not going to bet this game but the line has dropped to -6 at the Greek so I made the play. Kansas is not even close to as good as last year but they are a much better team at home and have played well off of a loss. This will be only Kansas St's 2nd road game of the year and I don't think this team is as good as their record.

Tulsa + XX: The line is currently Tulsa +6.5 but I am waiting this out as I think I should be able to get at least +7 since the public is pounding Memphis. Tulsa is a good team that has plays above average defense. Memphis is coming off of a tougher than expected win @ UCF while Tulsa is coming off of two very good road wins. Memphis has been beating the piss out of Conference USA for 2 years and Tulsa will be highly motivated to win this game. The more I watch Memphis the more convinced I get that are really poorly coached this year and I think this is a good spot to fade them.

I have leans to Kentucky plus the points (but this line keeps dropping), the Kansas over, and the BYU over. Check back later to see if I have any additional plays.

Most Likely No Picks Tonight

I am still looking at the Texas - Oklahoma game.

Results 1/11/09

11 Wins; 5 Loses; 1 Push

Man these big Saturday cards are rough. There are so many games to cap it takes a ton of time. No complaints on the results.

Tomorrow's card has 20 games so expect fewer plays.

-JD

Last 2 Picks

Boise St -9.5 : Hawaii is bad on the road (travel) and Boise is a tough place to play. Boise already won at Hawaii by 12 earlier.

Utah St Pick Em : They have played well on the road and I am continuing to fade New Mexico St who plays zero defense and is not as good offensively as in the past.

Creighton -2

I am expecting a let down for Bradley following the big win over than undefeated Illinois State. I have seen Creighton play on TV and in person and they play very good pressure defense. They also rely on the 3 ball and Bradley's 3-point defense is average at best.

Add: Cuse -7

Rutgers shoots the 3 really bad and that is essential for beating a zone.

ADD Another

Western Kentucky - 3.5 : This line would be at least -6 has Wk won their last game against Florida International (they lost by 2) but FI shot the ball really well despite being a bad scoring/shooting team. WK is already in Florida so the travel is a non issue and I expect them to rebound and avoid their 2nd non-conference loss.

Additional Plays

Appalachia St - 13.5 : This will be Greensboro's third straight road game. 9 of their 11 loses have been by double figures. They struggle to score and are better suited for a slower pace game but App State is comfortable running and has shot the ball better at home than on the road.

Drexel +1.5 : Drexel guards the perimeter really well and GS has small guards which is key (large guards have given Drexel some problems).

SDSU -3.5 : Utah has not been a good road team and SDSU is a tough place to play.

2 PM ADD

Rhode Island +1 : SJU has struggled with RI in the past. RI has already played a couple games at the Palestra and SJU's 3-point defense has been trash this year. Nivens should have his way inside but RI's ability to press SJU's guards and their sketchy ball handling skills should be enough for the win.

Add Oaklohoma +2

ADDS

Baylor -12 (bought the hook) : TT plays no defense and Baylor is to athletic for Tech. Baylor has struggled defensively a bit against other athletic teams but TT is not one of those teams.

I have a lean on Oak but have not made it a play yet.

Picks 1/10/08

Huge card today. 90 games had lines. I have narrowed the list to 30 and I am focusing in on those. Not sure how many plays I will end up with so keep checking back. Here is what I have so far:

Marquette -2 : West Virginia is coming off of a physical / emotional game with UCONN. Marquette can play both a quick pace and slow pace game so even if WVU is able to dictate the pace Marquette should still be able to pull this out at home.

Michigan St -6.5 : Kansas is a young road team who does not shoot that great and has to work inside out which they will not be able to do here. They have not been stellar on the road and MSU has really impressed me as they both rebound well and can shoot from outside the arch. I think MSU wins by at least 10 here.

East Carolina +7 : EC has played a tough schedule and Marshall has an inflated record with their only respectable win being Old Dominion (a 4 pts win @ home). Marshall just played San Diego and Memphis on the road and could have a bit of a hangover from those tough games.

BYU -9.5 : BYU is a much better team that has played well on the road and neutral sites.

UCONN -8.5 : UCONN will own the glass in this one. Cincy is going in the wrong direction and when they lose the rebounding ("RB") battle they lose the game. They are 16th in nation in RB margin and get a lot of second chance points from O Boards. UCONN, however, is 1st in RB margin and will take this away from them.

Delaware -6.5 : NC-Wilmington is real bad and beat up and Delaware likes to play fast so they will have no problem with the tempo of this game. The line has moved to -5.5 since a put the bet in but I still see a 10 - 15 pt win for the Blue Hens.

That is it for now many more to follow.

No Picks 1/9/08

Sorry I have no picks today. The card is real small and I do not see anything I really like. I was hoping the Siena vs. Rider total would be 145 or less and I would play the over but the line is at 150.5 so it is a no play. Rather than try and force bets tonight I am just going to start capping tomorrow's action as there are 130+ games tomorrow.

I would also like to thank The Stock Lemon for their show of support with the Vegas Watch listing my blog in their fade section. Make sure to check out his blog Stock Lemon.

In my first and second posts I warned that things might be rough at the start of the season given my capping style. From my post 11/12/08:

“I would like to point out that I use a number of techniques in capping CBB games but watching games is very important for my style. The more teams and games I have watched the better my handicapping gets. Naturally this is very tough early in the season (since no one has played yet) so I have to lean way more heavily on statistics than I will later in the season. So, if I start out cold please stick with with me and continue to check out my blog because in the past I have gotten much stronger as the season has worn on.”

For someone who “looks at the sports world from a statistical and analytical perspective” you would think Vegas Watch would afford me the opportunity of generating a reasonable sample size of a season worth of picks before listing my plays as fades.

-JD

Picks 1/7/09

According to Vegaswatch.net you should fade my picks. Only time will tell but I like my chances to turn a profit from here on out now that I have seen teams play. That UCONN game played out exactly how I thought it would (look at the write-up) but hey blindly betting against the public sure has worked out well this year for the contrarian sports bettors. Now for todays picks:

Davidson @ Duke - Line Duke -13.5

Pick - Duke -13.5: This is a real bad matchup for Davidson. Curry will have to drop 40 for a cover here and Duke will be all over him.

Michigan @ Indiana - Line Michigan -6.5

Pick - Michigan -6.5: Let me guess this is a sucker bet. Why else would the line be so low right? If it is a sucker bet well than call me a sucker. Indiana plays walkons who will not be able to deal with the 1-3-1 zone and do not have the athletes to push the ball to score before Michigan can setup. I don't think Indiana will be able to get over 60 in this game.

Depual @ Syracuse - Line Cuse -12.5

Pick - Cuse -12.5: Depaul can not shoot for shit and the last time they played a good zone (@ Northwestern) they scored 38 points. The Orangmen should bury this team early.

Harvard @ Boston College: - Line BC -18

Pick: Harvard +18. Looking for a hangover for BC following the big upset win over UNC. I doubt they are able to shoot the ball that well two games in a row.

Tulane @ East Carolina - Line East Carolina -7.5

Pick: East Carolina -7.5. East Carolina has been in a bit of a funk lately but they have been good at home and I think they may have turned the corner playing Clemson tough on Saturday. Tulane has only played 4 road games this year and has not shown up for any of those games.

Northwestern @ Wisconsin - Line Over/Under 118

Pick: Over 118. I am expecting a close game here (the line of +7 is tempting) and Northwestern shoots the 3 well enough to hit 60 in this game. Total should be finish up around 125 - 130.

Louisville @ South Florida - Line Over/Under 125

Pick: Over 125. South Florida is a guard oriented team so they should be able to handle Louisville's press better than the average team. Louisville has not been playing well so far but they are too talented to not win this game. Final score should be around 70 - 75 to 60 - 65.

That is for now. I have leans to the under in the Michigan game, Delaware plus the points, Drake minus 13.5, Wichita St -3.5, Evansville -8, and over 124 in the Tulsa game. Check back to see if I add any of these as official plays.

Results 1/6/08

3 Wins, 3 Loses, 0 Ties

I should have layed off of Purdue with Humell out. Also Arkansas is better than I thought they were. This could have been a much better night as my leans were 8-4, did a poor job narrowing the list down.

Adds 1/6/08

I am adding Texas -4.5 and UTEP +8.

Picks 1/6/08

Here are the picks I have locked in:

Miami Oh @ Dayton - Line: Dayton -6.5

Pick: Dayton -6.5 - One of Miami's leading scorers is out with a hand injury. These teams play a similar style but Dayton is a bit more athletic and plays really well at home.

UCONN @ West Virginia - Line WV -3.5

Pick: UCONN +3.5 - WV will get killed on the boards tonight much like they did at Ohio St. UCONN will not miss the same open looks that Ohio St did however, and should win this going away. Also from the WV games I have seen, they rely on a lot of put back buckets from offensive rebounds but I really expect them to struggle in the paint and they are mediocre 3 point shooting team.

Purdue @ Penn State - Line Purdue -2.5

Pick: Purdue -2.5 - I like that Purdue is coming off a tough home loss and I expect them to very focused. Also PSU just played a physical game @ Wisconsin. Purdue's defense should be could enough for them to win this game and get a late cover with FT's. I want to point out that Purdue's Hummell might not play this game.

LSU @ Utah - Line Utah -5

Pick: Utah -5 - This is LSU's first true road game of the year and Utah has been on a role as of late having recently beat Gonzaga at home. They followed that game with an impressive win against an underrated Wyoming team in what could have been a trap game. A Utah blowout and easy cover would not surprise me at all.

That is is for now. I am still looking at the sides for the Arkansas and New Mexico games. Additionally, most totals seem high to me tonight so I may have a few total plays as well.

Results 1/5/09

6 Wins, 2 Loses, 0 Pushes

Idaho missed 2 free throws with 15 seconds left so the Utah St total ended up being 131 which just missed the middle (132 would have been good for a 6-1-1 record; 133 would have been 7-1-0). Still a good night. Tomorrow's card is not as big but has some big time games.

-JD

ADD Under 71 points for 2nd half Utah St vs Idaho

Both of these teams were red hot from the field in the first half and there is a 13 point middle opportunity so I am going to take it and bet the Under 71 for the 2nd half total.

Add ND -3 over Georgetown

Picks 1/5/09

Here are today's picks. No explanations since the games start at 7:

James Madison -4 vs Drexel - Pick: JMU

Old Dominion -3.5 at William & Mary - Pick: ODU

Temple vs Kent St - Total 138 - Pick: Under 138

Wisconsin-Mill -7 vs Valparaiso - Pick: Wisc Mill

Wisconsin-Green Bay -1.5 at Loyola Chicago - Pick: Wisc-GB

Utah St vs Idaho - Total 132 - Pick Over 132

I am still looking at the ND and South Carolina games. Check back