Picks 3/9/09

Small card today so I am getting these plays up early. Here is what I am playing:

VCU -3.5 : This will be a square write-up. VCU will have the best player on the court in Maynor, the game is being played in Richmond, VCU has been the best shooting team in the conference tournament so far, they are the better free throw shooting team, and VCU has been the better road team this year. My only reservation here is that George Mason should win the rebounding battle. This could be an ugly game to watch.

Siena -3.5 (this is my Play of the Day): This game will be played at Siena, Niagra just played a double OT game that ended late last night, Siena is the more experienced team having won this game last year for the bid, and they can revenge the 15 point loss they just suffered against Niagra. The fatigue in Niagra's players was evident last night as they started missing a lot of FT's in OT. This is the 3rd game in 3 days for both teams but thanks to 2 blowouts Siena has been able to rest their starters some.

College of Charleston / Chattanooga : Under 154.5 - This will be COC's 4th game in 4 days and Chatt's 3rd. A bid will be on the line so we should get maximum defensive effort.

I am also leaning to the under in the Siena / Niagra game and I am still looking at the Zags game.

No Picks 1/9/08

Sorry I have no picks today. The card is real small and I do not see anything I really like. I was hoping the Siena vs. Rider total would be 145 or less and I would play the over but the line is at 150.5 so it is a no play. Rather than try and force bets tonight I am just going to start capping tomorrow's action as there are 130+ games tomorrow.

I would also like to thank The Stock Lemon for their show of support with the Vegas Watch listing my blog in their fade section. Make sure to check out his blog Stock Lemon.

In my first and second posts I warned that things might be rough at the start of the season given my capping style. From my post 11/12/08:

“I would like to point out that I use a number of techniques in capping CBB games but watching games is very important for my style. The more teams and games I have watched the better my handicapping gets. Naturally this is very tough early in the season (since no one has played yet) so I have to lean way more heavily on statistics than I will later in the season. So, if I start out cold please stick with with me and continue to check out my blog because in the past I have gotten much stronger as the season has worn on.”

For someone who “looks at the sports world from a statistical and analytical perspective” you would think Vegas Watch would afford me the opportunity of generating a reasonable sample size of a season worth of picks before listing my plays as fades.

-JD