3 Wagers have been made:
California -1 vs Syracuse (Madison Square Garden)
Rider +5 @ Virginia
South Florida -1.5 vs Davidson (Charleston, SC)
I plan to keep my eye on these for any line movements.
5 years ago
Showing posts with label College Basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Basketball. Show all posts
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Picks 3/11/09
I should have stuck with my initial lean of the under in the Butler game. With 9 minutes left, we only needed 22 pts for the over and than both teams stopped scoring. Now for todays plays:
Saint Louis / La Salle - UNDER 128 : This game tips at noon today at Boardwalk hall in Atlantic City which is not a venue that was built for basketball. Saint Louis likes to play a slow pace and win with their defense while La Salle will play quick or slow and seems to adapt to the style that their opponent likes. I just see a real blah kinda game as the teams get used to the venue and St Louis dictates the pace.
Saint Joseph's -3.5 - I don't really like SJU's draw in the A-10 Tournament but I do think they will be able to get it done in this game. Charlotte has been a terrible road team and they do not have the size to stop Nivens. SJU really packed it in the lane the last time time these two teams played and Charlotte was able to hit 3's they usually miss (they only shoot 30% from 3).
Saint Joseph's / Charlotte - UNDER 132 : Last game both teams hit a lot of 3's and the game was called pretty tight with a lot of Ft's. Weird start time, new arena, and I played this game under at the same line in their first meeting. The pace was there for the game to go under but both teams just shot the ball better than they usually do.
Baylor -1 : I like the fact these 2 teams just played on Saturday. In that game, Baylor was a 6 pt favorite and lost at home down the stretch. I think there is good value in this line thanks to that loss. Nebraska is a really small team and they hide it by being well coached but seeing that Baylor just played them they should be able to adjust. Hopefully Baylor has not packed in their season like Cincy and Georgetwon did and shows up and plays to their potential.
DePaul / Providence UNDER 143.5 - These two teams went under this total when they played in the regular season. Thanks to Providence's zone it is important to be able to hit 3's but DePaul is ranked 329th in 3 pt shooting (29% clip). This will be Providences first game in tournament and they have to win this game so I think they will come out a little tight. I like the noon start time in this game as well.
So there you have it for the games I have locked in thus far. There has been good value in the unders so far during these conference tournaments.
Saint Louis / La Salle - UNDER 128 : This game tips at noon today at Boardwalk hall in Atlantic City which is not a venue that was built for basketball. Saint Louis likes to play a slow pace and win with their defense while La Salle will play quick or slow and seems to adapt to the style that their opponent likes. I just see a real blah kinda game as the teams get used to the venue and St Louis dictates the pace.
Saint Joseph's -3.5 - I don't really like SJU's draw in the A-10 Tournament but I do think they will be able to get it done in this game. Charlotte has been a terrible road team and they do not have the size to stop Nivens. SJU really packed it in the lane the last time time these two teams played and Charlotte was able to hit 3's they usually miss (they only shoot 30% from 3).
Saint Joseph's / Charlotte - UNDER 132 : Last game both teams hit a lot of 3's and the game was called pretty tight with a lot of Ft's. Weird start time, new arena, and I played this game under at the same line in their first meeting. The pace was there for the game to go under but both teams just shot the ball better than they usually do.
Baylor -1 : I like the fact these 2 teams just played on Saturday. In that game, Baylor was a 6 pt favorite and lost at home down the stretch. I think there is good value in this line thanks to that loss. Nebraska is a really small team and they hide it by being well coached but seeing that Baylor just played them they should be able to adjust. Hopefully Baylor has not packed in their season like Cincy and Georgetwon did and shows up and plays to their potential.
DePaul / Providence UNDER 143.5 - These two teams went under this total when they played in the regular season. Thanks to Providence's zone it is important to be able to hit 3's but DePaul is ranked 329th in 3 pt shooting (29% clip). This will be Providences first game in tournament and they have to win this game so I think they will come out a little tight. I like the noon start time in this game as well.
So there you have it for the games I have locked in thus far. There has been good value in the unders so far during these conference tournaments.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Picks 3/10/09
There have been a rash of unders lately, yesterday had all but 1 game I think. It seems like it is starting to be reflected in the new lines. I have a busy day today so I am not sure when I will be in front of a computer again anyway here is what I locked in:
DePaul / Cincinnati - Under 128.5
Seton Hall -5.5
I may have more adds later. For some reason, I like DePual (I have this gut feeling they might win that game) I just don't know if I can stomach taking them after the St John's beating. The Butler & Cleveland St game is very interesting as well. I was hoping the total would be a little higher because I like how these 2 match up and I think there could have been a lot of value in the under. I need to spend more time on that one.
DePaul / Cincinnati - Under 128.5
Seton Hall -5.5
I may have more adds later. For some reason, I like DePual (I have this gut feeling they might win that game) I just don't know if I can stomach taking them after the St John's beating. The Butler & Cleveland St game is very interesting as well. I was hoping the total would be a little higher because I like how these 2 match up and I think there could have been a lot of value in the under. I need to spend more time on that one.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Picks 3/9/09
Small card today so I am getting these plays up early. Here is what I am playing:
VCU -3.5 : This will be a square write-up. VCU will have the best player on the court in Maynor, the game is being played in Richmond, VCU has been the best shooting team in the conference tournament so far, they are the better free throw shooting team, and VCU has been the better road team this year. My only reservation here is that George Mason should win the rebounding battle. This could be an ugly game to watch.
Siena -3.5 (this is my Play of the Day): This game will be played at Siena, Niagra just played a double OT game that ended late last night, Siena is the more experienced team having won this game last year for the bid, and they can revenge the 15 point loss they just suffered against Niagra. The fatigue in Niagra's players was evident last night as they started missing a lot of FT's in OT. This is the 3rd game in 3 days for both teams but thanks to 2 blowouts Siena has been able to rest their starters some.
College of Charleston / Chattanooga : Under 154.5 - This will be COC's 4th game in 4 days and Chatt's 3rd. A bid will be on the line so we should get maximum defensive effort.
I am also leaning to the under in the Siena / Niagra game and I am still looking at the Zags game.
VCU -3.5 : This will be a square write-up. VCU will have the best player on the court in Maynor, the game is being played in Richmond, VCU has been the best shooting team in the conference tournament so far, they are the better free throw shooting team, and VCU has been the better road team this year. My only reservation here is that George Mason should win the rebounding battle. This could be an ugly game to watch.
Siena -3.5 (this is my Play of the Day): This game will be played at Siena, Niagra just played a double OT game that ended late last night, Siena is the more experienced team having won this game last year for the bid, and they can revenge the 15 point loss they just suffered against Niagra. The fatigue in Niagra's players was evident last night as they started missing a lot of FT's in OT. This is the 3rd game in 3 days for both teams but thanks to 2 blowouts Siena has been able to rest their starters some.
College of Charleston / Chattanooga : Under 154.5 - This will be COC's 4th game in 4 days and Chatt's 3rd. A bid will be on the line so we should get maximum defensive effort.
I am also leaning to the under in the Siena / Niagra game and I am still looking at the Zags game.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Picks 3/8/09
The best 2 weeks in sports are upon us (in my humble opinion). Let's turn some profit. Me first play for today is:
Western Kentucky / Florida Internation : Over 137 - These 2 teams have played 2 times this year and they combined to score 145 and 160. I actually watched the first meeting and despite not being a good team FI matches up alright with WK, well good enough to score 60 which should be the magic number here as WK should be good for at least 75.
Western Kentucky / Florida Internation : Over 137 - These 2 teams have played 2 times this year and they combined to score 145 and 160. I actually watched the first meeting and despite not being a good team FI matches up alright with WK, well good enough to score 60 which should be the magic number here as WK should be good for at least 75.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Free Picks 3/7/09
It is A-10 and Over day. Here are the games I have locked in before I go to bed:
California / Arizona St : Over 136 - This is my Play of the Day. Cal will light up State's zone while State scores in the lane with Harden and Pendergraph.
Iowa St -3 : Nice letdown spot for Tech following the big emotional win over Kansas.
Temple -4.5 : GW should struggle to score in this one (might play the under as well).
Kentucky / Florida: Over 147 - Neither of these teams play much D and I think both teams are better in transition. Last game had a pace of 72 (according to Kenpom) so with a little uptick in the fg% and number of free throw attempts (the last meeting was so close there was no intentional fouling at the end) should get this one over.
Stanford / Arizona: Over 144
I will most likely have plays on Saint Joe's, Iowa, and St Louis. Keep checking back for more plays throughout the day.
California / Arizona St : Over 136 - This is my Play of the Day. Cal will light up State's zone while State scores in the lane with Harden and Pendergraph.
Iowa St -3 : Nice letdown spot for Tech following the big emotional win over Kansas.
Temple -4.5 : GW should struggle to score in this one (might play the under as well).
Kentucky / Florida: Over 147 - Neither of these teams play much D and I think both teams are better in transition. Last game had a pace of 72 (according to Kenpom) so with a little uptick in the fg% and number of free throw attempts (the last meeting was so close there was no intentional fouling at the end) should get this one over.
Stanford / Arizona: Over 144
I will most likely have plays on Saint Joe's, Iowa, and St Louis. Keep checking back for more plays throughout the day.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Picks 2/26/09
I should have had a much better night. I did a poor job of narrowing down my leans and left a lot of profit on the board.
I have locked in a number of plays tonight before I go to bed because I think the lines will move:
Arizona +2 - Arizona is playing really well right now and this is a great let down spot for Washington St following the big UCLA win.
Arizona St @ Washington - Over 140.5 - Last game Washington negated Arizona St's zone by beating it down the court and Washington's guards were much quicker than State's (Hardon excluded) and were able to penetrate the zone when it was setup. I don't see how things can change for this game (speed kills) and I will be playing Washington minus the pts as well (just waiting to see what the line does).
UCLA -6.5
USC @ California - Over 135.5
UAB +5
Check back tomorrow for more plays. I have 6 other leans I am looking at. I usually don't have this many plays on a Thursday so hopefully this does not blow up in my face.
I have locked in a number of plays tonight before I go to bed because I think the lines will move:
Arizona +2 - Arizona is playing really well right now and this is a great let down spot for Washington St following the big UCLA win.
Arizona St @ Washington - Over 140.5 - Last game Washington negated Arizona St's zone by beating it down the court and Washington's guards were much quicker than State's (Hardon excluded) and were able to penetrate the zone when it was setup. I don't see how things can change for this game (speed kills) and I will be playing Washington minus the pts as well (just waiting to see what the line does).
UCLA -6.5
USC @ California - Over 135.5
UAB +5
Check back tomorrow for more plays. I have 6 other leans I am looking at. I usually don't have this many plays on a Thursday so hopefully this does not blow up in my face.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Picks 2/25/09
Wed's card looks promising. I have locked in 2 plays before I go to bed as I think the lines may move.
UConn @ Marquette - Over 144: This game should be "strengths" against "weaknesses". Without Dyson (who was probably the Huskies best perimeter defender) it will be tough for Uconn to hold down McNeal, Matthews, and James. On the flip side, Adrien and Thabeet should have their way inside against the Golden Eagles. I expect Marquette to really push the ball up the court and try to get to the basket before UConn can set up their big men. UConn might try and slow the pace and play in the half court but they should be able to get the ball inside with ease which will lead to made baskets earlier in the shot clock even if they do walk the ball up the court. The line is only 1 so the odds makers expect a close game which can only help with some fouls at the end.
South Florida @ Seton Hall - Under 133.5: Not much of an explanation here as I want to go to bed. South Florida plays slow as mud and has been very good at getting their opponents to play at their desired speed. Their last 6 games have gone under the total (not really relevant stat unless a team has changed their style or approach) and both teams have decent defensive efficiencies which will hopefully lead to empty possessions.
More plays to follow tomorrow as I have leans on several other totals and plays.
UConn @ Marquette - Over 144: This game should be "strengths" against "weaknesses". Without Dyson (who was probably the Huskies best perimeter defender) it will be tough for Uconn to hold down McNeal, Matthews, and James. On the flip side, Adrien and Thabeet should have their way inside against the Golden Eagles. I expect Marquette to really push the ball up the court and try to get to the basket before UConn can set up their big men. UConn might try and slow the pace and play in the half court but they should be able to get the ball inside with ease which will lead to made baskets earlier in the shot clock even if they do walk the ball up the court. The line is only 1 so the odds makers expect a close game which can only help with some fouls at the end.
South Florida @ Seton Hall - Under 133.5: Not much of an explanation here as I want to go to bed. South Florida plays slow as mud and has been very good at getting their opponents to play at their desired speed. Their last 6 games have gone under the total (not really relevant stat unless a team has changed their style or approach) and both teams have decent defensive efficiencies which will hopefully lead to empty possessions.
More plays to follow tomorrow as I have leans on several other totals and plays.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Other 2 Plays for 2/9/09
My other 2 plays for tonight are:
Gonzaga Over 135.5 - So long as Loyola can get over 50 this one should go over
California Over 147.5
Gonzaga Over 135.5 - So long as Loyola can get over 50 this one should go over
California Over 147.5
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Picks 2/17/09
Last time I played all overs it blew up in my face so I hope today works out better. Here are my plays for today:
East Carolina O 146
BYU Over 144.5 - Play of the Day
Austin Peay Over 148
I have leans on Michigan St +2.5, Vandy +1.5, and the Under 134 in Kentucky @ Vandy game. I am waiting on the status of Patterson before I lock in the Vandy plays. I really think Purdue's going to need to drain a lot of threes to win their game. Michigan St should own the glass and I am just not sold that Purdue's defense is as good as they appear on paper as they have not faced a lot of good offensive teams and the few they have played have scored over 60 on them (Duke & Oklahoma got into the 70's). I am just a little hesitant by the home court.
East Carolina O 146
BYU Over 144.5 - Play of the Day
Austin Peay Over 148
I have leans on Michigan St +2.5, Vandy +1.5, and the Under 134 in Kentucky @ Vandy game. I am waiting on the status of Patterson before I lock in the Vandy plays. I really think Purdue's going to need to drain a lot of threes to win their game. Michigan St should own the glass and I am just not sold that Purdue's defense is as good as they appear on paper as they have not faced a lot of good offensive teams and the few they have played have scored over 60 on them (Duke & Oklahoma got into the 70's). I am just a little hesitant by the home court.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
