Picks 2/26/09

I should have had a much better night. I did a poor job of narrowing down my leans and left a lot of profit on the board.

I have locked in a number of plays tonight before I go to bed because I think the lines will move:

Arizona +2 - Arizona is playing really well right now and this is a great let down spot for Washington St following the big UCLA win.

Arizona St @ Washington - Over 140.5 - Last game Washington negated Arizona St's zone by beating it down the court and Washington's guards were much quicker than State's (Hardon excluded) and were able to penetrate the zone when it was setup. I don't see how things can change for this game (speed kills) and I will be playing Washington minus the pts as well (just waiting to see what the line does).

UCLA -6.5

USC @ California - Over 135.5

UAB +5

Check back tomorrow for more plays. I have 6 other leans I am looking at. I usually don't have this many plays on a Thursday so hopefully this does not blow up in my face.

Picks 2/25/09

Wed's card looks promising. I have locked in 2 plays before I go to bed as I think the lines may move.

UConn @ Marquette - Over 144: This game should be "strengths" against "weaknesses". Without Dyson (who was probably the Huskies best perimeter defender) it will be tough for Uconn to hold down McNeal, Matthews, and James. On the flip side, Adrien and Thabeet should have their way inside against the Golden Eagles. I expect Marquette to really push the ball up the court and try to get to the basket before UConn can set up their big men. UConn might try and slow the pace and play in the half court but they should be able to get the ball inside with ease which will lead to made baskets earlier in the shot clock even if they do walk the ball up the court. The line is only 1 so the odds makers expect a close game which can only help with some fouls at the end.

South Florida @ Seton Hall - Under 133.5: Not much of an explanation here as I want to go to bed. South Florida plays slow as mud and has been very good at getting their opponents to play at their desired speed. Their last 6 games have gone under the total (not really relevant stat unless a team has changed their style or approach) and both teams have decent defensive efficiencies which will hopefully lead to empty possessions.

More plays to follow tomorrow as I have leans on several other totals and plays.