3 years ago
Saturday, February 28, 2009
2nd Half Play
I am playing the 2nd half Over 74.5 in the Nova Georgetown game. The pace started to pick up and the the teams combined for 1-16 3's and this game looks like it will be close so late fouls are in play.
Picks 2/28/09
The month is coming to an end and I hope to finish it off with a profitable day. Same drill is always for a Saturday, will be posting picks throughout the day as I place them. Here is what I have locked in before I go to bed:
Southern Miss @ Memphis - Under 132
Georgetown @ Villanova - Over 142
Auburn @ Mississippi St - Over 141.5 : This will be my play of the day. These teams are very similar in style and it leads to a track meet.
Drexel -1.5 : Drexel beat them once already and from what I have seen of W&M they struggle with guards who defend well which the Dragons have.
Oklahoma St -2
Southern Miss @ Memphis - Under 132
Georgetown @ Villanova - Over 142
Auburn @ Mississippi St - Over 141.5 : This will be my play of the day. These teams are very similar in style and it leads to a track meet.
Drexel -1.5 : Drexel beat them once already and from what I have seen of W&M they struggle with guards who defend well which the Dragons have.
Oklahoma St -2
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Let's Go Points
Locking in UAB was correct (it is now 4) but UCLA (now 5.5) and Arizona (now +3) moved against me. I don't care too much about Zona since I expect to win the game but I wouldn't mind having that extra point in the UCLA game.
This is my biggest Thursday card all season so I am a but nervous. I also have all Overs which has not worked out well in the past. Hopefully offenses explode tonight. Here are the rest of my plays:
Washington -4
Purdue @ Michigan Over 124
La Salle @ Temple Over 134
Xavier @ Saint Joe's Over 133
NC State @ Wake Over 152
I also lean to the over in the UCLA game and I might add this late night.
This is my biggest Thursday card all season so I am a but nervous. I also have all Overs which has not worked out well in the past. Hopefully offenses explode tonight. Here are the rest of my plays:
Washington -4
Purdue @ Michigan Over 124
La Salle @ Temple Over 134
Xavier @ Saint Joe's Over 133
NC State @ Wake Over 152
I also lean to the over in the UCLA game and I might add this late night.
Picks 2/26/09
I should have had a much better night. I did a poor job of narrowing down my leans and left a lot of profit on the board.
I have locked in a number of plays tonight before I go to bed because I think the lines will move:
Arizona +2 - Arizona is playing really well right now and this is a great let down spot for Washington St following the big UCLA win.
Arizona St @ Washington - Over 140.5 - Last game Washington negated Arizona St's zone by beating it down the court and Washington's guards were much quicker than State's (Hardon excluded) and were able to penetrate the zone when it was setup. I don't see how things can change for this game (speed kills) and I will be playing Washington minus the pts as well (just waiting to see what the line does).
UCLA -6.5
USC @ California - Over 135.5
UAB +5
Check back tomorrow for more plays. I have 6 other leans I am looking at. I usually don't have this many plays on a Thursday so hopefully this does not blow up in my face.
I have locked in a number of plays tonight before I go to bed because I think the lines will move:
Arizona +2 - Arizona is playing really well right now and this is a great let down spot for Washington St following the big UCLA win.
Arizona St @ Washington - Over 140.5 - Last game Washington negated Arizona St's zone by beating it down the court and Washington's guards were much quicker than State's (Hardon excluded) and were able to penetrate the zone when it was setup. I don't see how things can change for this game (speed kills) and I will be playing Washington minus the pts as well (just waiting to see what the line does).
UCLA -6.5
USC @ California - Over 135.5
UAB +5
Check back tomorrow for more plays. I have 6 other leans I am looking at. I usually don't have this many plays on a Thursday so hopefully this does not blow up in my face.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Adding: Nova / DePaul Umder 146.5
I am not feeling that great about how some of the early bets look at half.
Some Additional Plays
I have also locked in:
Duke @ Maryland Over 144
George Mason -12.5
Old Dominion -11.5
Duke @ Maryland Over 144
George Mason -12.5
Old Dominion -11.5
Picks 2/25/09
Wed's card looks promising. I have locked in 2 plays before I go to bed as I think the lines may move.
UConn @ Marquette - Over 144: This game should be "strengths" against "weaknesses". Without Dyson (who was probably the Huskies best perimeter defender) it will be tough for Uconn to hold down McNeal, Matthews, and James. On the flip side, Adrien and Thabeet should have their way inside against the Golden Eagles. I expect Marquette to really push the ball up the court and try to get to the basket before UConn can set up their big men. UConn might try and slow the pace and play in the half court but they should be able to get the ball inside with ease which will lead to made baskets earlier in the shot clock even if they do walk the ball up the court. The line is only 1 so the odds makers expect a close game which can only help with some fouls at the end.
South Florida @ Seton Hall - Under 133.5: Not much of an explanation here as I want to go to bed. South Florida plays slow as mud and has been very good at getting their opponents to play at their desired speed. Their last 6 games have gone under the total (not really relevant stat unless a team has changed their style or approach) and both teams have decent defensive efficiencies which will hopefully lead to empty possessions.
More plays to follow tomorrow as I have leans on several other totals and plays.
UConn @ Marquette - Over 144: This game should be "strengths" against "weaknesses". Without Dyson (who was probably the Huskies best perimeter defender) it will be tough for Uconn to hold down McNeal, Matthews, and James. On the flip side, Adrien and Thabeet should have their way inside against the Golden Eagles. I expect Marquette to really push the ball up the court and try to get to the basket before UConn can set up their big men. UConn might try and slow the pace and play in the half court but they should be able to get the ball inside with ease which will lead to made baskets earlier in the shot clock even if they do walk the ball up the court. The line is only 1 so the odds makers expect a close game which can only help with some fouls at the end.
South Florida @ Seton Hall - Under 133.5: Not much of an explanation here as I want to go to bed. South Florida plays slow as mud and has been very good at getting their opponents to play at their desired speed. Their last 6 games have gone under the total (not really relevant stat unless a team has changed their style or approach) and both teams have decent defensive efficiencies which will hopefully lead to empty possessions.
More plays to follow tomorrow as I have leans on several other totals and plays.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
2 More Plays for 2/24/09
The other 2 plays I just locked in are:
Syracuse -4 : Saint John's does not shoot the 3 good enough to keep this close.
Creighton -6
That is it for now.
Syracuse -4 : Saint John's does not shoot the 3 good enough to keep this close.
Creighton -6
That is it for now.
Monday, February 23, 2009
No Plays for 2/23/09
I'm not seeing anything I like. I can;t seem to figure out Georgetown and no Griffen means I am staying away from the Oklahoma game.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
3rd Play
Michigan St -8
That might be it for the day. I am still looking at the Duke / Wake game. I lean Wake plus the points and the over.
That might be it for the day. I am still looking at the Duke / Wake game. I lean Wake plus the points and the over.
2nd Pick of the Day
Temple Game Under 142.5 - I think Temple is the best defensive team in the A-1o and should be able to hold down Bonny's point total. I just hope Temple doesn't score over 80.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Penn vs Harvard
The pace was there in the first half for this total to go over but these teams are missing easy baskets. It is going to take a miracle for this go over now.
Pitt Game Total Over 141
I am adding the over in the Pitt game. Every way I run this game, Pitt has a least 80. So if DePaul can get to 55+ this should get over the total.
Adding: Richmond -4.5
I am looking for a letdown following the upset of Xavier for the 49ers.
Damn Siena
Damn Siena
Tulane -2
I am adding Tulane -2.
How brutal was the end of that Vermont game? In the end they got the cover though. The 2nd halves have been killing my total plays. Both the Miami and UAB games looked great at half. I probably should have taken off the UAB game at half since they had 43. Doubling that put the under in bad shape unless Southern Miss shit the bed again (which they did not). Oh well live and learn.
A lot of leans that I did not play (ND, UCLA Over, Delaware Over, Bulter, Bulter 2nd half ML, Missouri) hit so I could be off to great start. The loser leans were UConn, Iona, and SDSU.
How brutal was the end of that Vermont game? In the end they got the cover though. The 2nd halves have been killing my total plays. Both the Miami and UAB games looked great at half. I probably should have taken off the UAB game at half since they had 43. Doubling that put the under in bad shape unless Southern Miss shit the bed again (which they did not). Oh well live and learn.
A lot of leans that I did not play (ND, UCLA Over, Delaware Over, Bulter, Bulter 2nd half ML, Missouri) hit so I could be off to great start. The loser leans were UConn, Iona, and SDSU.
Add Vermont -3.5 (2nd Half)
Vermont came out flat but they turned it around and I expect them to pull away here. They only hit 1 3 pointer and are out rebounding Buffalo so I like those stats.
Picks 2/21/09
I like a lot of games on this Saturday card. This day is going to make or break this month. Here is what I have locked in before I go to bed:
Boston College / Miami - Over 146
Missouri / Colorado - Over 139
Georgetown -3.5
Southern Miss / UAB - Under 138.5
Miss St / Alabama - Over 141.5
Wyoming -4
Oklahoma +1.5
Siena -6.5
Liberty +8
Out of this group of games Wyoming is my favorite. I also like Georgetown a lot. I have 6 more potential plays from the games tipping before 3:30.
Boston College / Miami - Over 146
Missouri / Colorado - Over 139
Georgetown -3.5
Southern Miss / UAB - Under 138.5
Miss St / Alabama - Over 141.5
Wyoming -4
Oklahoma +1.5
Siena -6.5
Liberty +8
Out of this group of games Wyoming is my favorite. I also like Georgetown a lot. I have 6 more potential plays from the games tipping before 3:30.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Picks 2/20/09
Couple plays today:
Harvard +5
Illinois St +3.5 - Niagra's defense has not been very good they last few games. They don't rebound very well on defense either. I will go with the team from the better conference.
I am looking at the VCU @ Nevada game. From the games I have watched VCU is the better team I am just worried about the long trip on a short rest (they played on Wed while Nevada has not played since Sat). I might play the total Under instead of backing VCU; with the hopes that both teams come out sluggish (long trip and week off).
Harvard +5
Illinois St +3.5 - Niagra's defense has not been very good they last few games. They don't rebound very well on defense either. I will go with the team from the better conference.
I am looking at the VCU @ Nevada game. From the games I have watched VCU is the better team I am just worried about the long trip on a short rest (they played on Wed while Nevada has not played since Sat). I might play the total Under instead of backing VCU; with the hopes that both teams come out sluggish (long trip and week off).
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Other 2 Plays for 2/9/09
My other 2 plays for tonight are:
Gonzaga Over 135.5 - So long as Loyola can get over 50 this one should go over
California Over 147.5
Gonzaga Over 135.5 - So long as Loyola can get over 50 this one should go over
California Over 147.5
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Picks 2/18/09
Yesterday sucked.
Here are the my plays for the 7pm games:
Houston -5
Old Dominion -10
Florida St -3
La Salle Over 136.5
VCU Over 137
I am looking at 3 games that tip at 7:30; 3 that tip at 8pm; and 1 late night game so check back for more picks.
Here are the my plays for the 7pm games:
Houston -5
Old Dominion -10
Florida St -3
La Salle Over 136.5
VCU Over 137
I am looking at 3 games that tip at 7:30; 3 that tip at 8pm; and 1 late night game so check back for more picks.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Picks 2/17/09
Last time I played all overs it blew up in my face so I hope today works out better. Here are my plays for today:
East Carolina O 146
BYU Over 144.5 - Play of the Day
Austin Peay Over 148
I have leans on Michigan St +2.5, Vandy +1.5, and the Under 134 in Kentucky @ Vandy game. I am waiting on the status of Patterson before I lock in the Vandy plays. I really think Purdue's going to need to drain a lot of threes to win their game. Michigan St should own the glass and I am just not sold that Purdue's defense is as good as they appear on paper as they have not faced a lot of good offensive teams and the few they have played have scored over 60 on them (Duke & Oklahoma got into the 70's). I am just a little hesitant by the home court.
East Carolina O 146
BYU Over 144.5 - Play of the Day
Austin Peay Over 148
I have leans on Michigan St +2.5, Vandy +1.5, and the Under 134 in Kentucky @ Vandy game. I am waiting on the status of Patterson before I lock in the Vandy plays. I really think Purdue's going to need to drain a lot of threes to win their game. Michigan St should own the glass and I am just not sold that Purdue's defense is as good as they appear on paper as they have not faced a lot of good offensive teams and the few they have played have scored over 60 on them (Duke & Oklahoma got into the 70's). I am just a little hesitant by the home court.
Monday, February 16, 2009
No Plays for 2/16/09
I thought long and hard about Pitt but I am too worried their front court might end up in foul trouble so I am staying away.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
More Picks 2/15/09
Ok so can we forget that Butler play? They are laying a huge egg, 0-6 Ft's, 1-8 3's, and 6-18 fg's.
I am adding:
Northwestern vs Michigan - Over 123
Temple -1
I am adding:
Northwestern vs Michigan - Over 123
Temple -1
Picks Sunday Feb 15th
First play of the day: Butler -10 (1st Half)
I am looking at Temple, BC, USC, and the over in the Michigan / Northwestern game (not sure I can stomach an over with these 2 teams).
I am looking at Temple, BC, USC, and the over in the Michigan / Northwestern game (not sure I can stomach an over with these 2 teams).
Saturday, February 14, 2009
2nd Half Play
Niagara -2 (2nd half) - Fairfield is missing too many players to keep this game close.
Thank You Dartmouth
For forcing OT. Here are my last 2 plays of the night:
Portland +9.5 - I am going to continue to fade St Mary's without Mills (plus they are coming off a tough loss with the Zags). I am tempted to also bet the moneyline which is 4-1.
Santa Clara -12 - Will wait closer to game time in hopes of getting 11.5.
Portland +9.5 - I am going to continue to fade St Mary's without Mills (plus they are coming off a tough loss with the Zags). I am tempted to also bet the moneyline which is 4-1.
Santa Clara -12 - Will wait closer to game time in hopes of getting 11.5.
4 PM Plays
Oklahoma St -10 (bought .5)
I will also play Purdue -6 if I know for sure Hummel is playing.
I will also play Purdue -6 if I know for sure Hummel is playing.
Picks 2/14/09 Early Games
Another Saturday, another 100+ games. Here are my plays for the early games:
Georgia Tech -4
UCLA OVER 143
Kentucky Under 141.5
Syracuse Over 144.5
Georgia Tech -4
UCLA OVER 143
Kentucky Under 141.5
Syracuse Over 144.5
Friday, February 13, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Picks 2/12/09 - Cont.
Gonzaga is my POD. I have added the following plays:
Arizona St +1
Northwestern +2
Arizona -3
Arizona St +1
Northwestern +2
Arizona -3
Picks 2/12/09
I am locking this on in now: Gonzaga -3.5. The line should move as the public pounds the Zags but I think the public will be right. St Mary's could not do a thing in the 2nd half of their meeting once Mills went down. I love betting rematches when I have watched the first meeting. This will probably be my POD but I need to cap the whole card before I officially name it as such.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Picks 2/11/09
Big card today. Here is what I have locked in so far:
POD: UNC -2. This is the type of team that Duke has not been able to beat the last 3 years.
Others:
Cuse @ UCONN: Under 150
Tulsa @ Memphis: Over 130
UMASS @ Fordham: Over 143
More plays to follow.
POD: UNC -2. This is the type of team that Duke has not been able to beat the last 3 years.
Others:
Cuse @ UCONN: Under 150
Tulsa @ Memphis: Over 130
UMASS @ Fordham: Over 143
More plays to follow.
Monday, February 9, 2009
Picks 2/9/09
Let's hope for a lot of points tonight.
POD: Manhattan vs Iona Over 123.5 - Last time these 2 teams played there was 75 possessions, lots of missed FT's and Iona won by 20. As long as Manhattan does not shoot terrible again with a line of -1.5 this should be a close game and FT's at the end should get the total into the 130's.
Others:
Kansas @ Missouri Over 152.5
West Virginia @ Pitt Over 137
I will most likely be adding Missouri minus the points as well.
POD: Manhattan vs Iona Over 123.5 - Last time these 2 teams played there was 75 possessions, lots of missed FT's and Iona won by 20. As long as Manhattan does not shoot terrible again with a line of -1.5 this should be a close game and FT's at the end should get the total into the 130's.
Others:
Kansas @ Missouri Over 152.5
West Virginia @ Pitt Over 137
I will most likely be adding Missouri minus the points as well.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
3rd Play of the Day
Today's Play of the Day:
Penn State -2: PSU played Wisconsin tough at their place earlier this year, they have been good at home, and I am playing the revenge angle here.
Penn State -2: PSU played Wisconsin tough at their place earlier this year, they have been good at home, and I am playing the revenge angle here.
Picks 2/8/09
First pick of the day: Dayton -2
This line looks like it might be a trap but I just can't see the 49ers not struggling with Dayton's on the ball defense. Dayton really guards well. I lean to the under as this game could be ugly.
This line looks like it might be a trap but I just can't see the 49ers not struggling with Dayton's on the ball defense. Dayton really guards well. I lean to the under as this game could be ugly.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
10 PM Games
two plays for the 10 PM games:
California -6: Cal has been very good at home and like taking teams with good guard play against Was St.
Santa Clara +5.5: Fading SMU without Mills and on the road. Plus SC only lost by 1 @ St Mary's on Jan 9th (Mills scored 31 in that game).
California -6: Cal has been very good at home and like taking teams with good guard play against Was St.
Santa Clara +5.5: Fading SMU without Mills and on the road. Plus SC only lost by 1 @ St Mary's on Jan 9th (Mills scored 31 in that game).
8 PM Games
Tulsa -5
Youngstown St - Illinois Chicago - OVER 136
My only potential play for the 9pm games would be on the Zags game. There are a couple of games I like for the 10pm group so I may have some plays form those ones.
Youngstown St - Illinois Chicago - OVER 136
My only potential play for the 9pm games would be on the Zags game. There are a couple of games I like for the 10pm group so I may have some plays form those ones.
Rest of the 7pm
I hate that I have so much road chalk but I like the plays:
La Salle -3.5 (this line makes no sense to me)
Cornell -5.5 (Penn stinks and Cornell is not going to go 2-17 from 3 again)
Butler -2
La Salle -3.5 (this line makes no sense to me)
Cornell -5.5 (Penn stinks and Cornell is not going to go 2-17 from 3 again)
Butler -2
First 7 PM Play
I wanted to get this out now because it is my POD.
UCF @ East Carolina OVER 145 - Both of these teams are better on offense then defense. ECU has given up at least 70pts in their last 7 games and some of these teams are not as good as UCF is on offense. I expect this game to hit 150+.
UCF @ East Carolina OVER 145 - Both of these teams are better on offense then defense. ECU has given up at least 70pts in their last 7 games and some of these teams are not as good as UCF is on offense. I expect this game to hit 150+.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Picks 2/5/09
First pick of the night:
Florida St -9
I wanted to bet the under 139 in the Vandy game but the line moved down to 137 so I am going to layoff the game. I might have some late Pac 10 plays.
Florida St -9
I wanted to bet the under 139 in the Vandy game but the line moved down to 137 so I am going to layoff the game. I might have some late Pac 10 plays.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Picks 2/2/09
I will update my record later tonight. Here are todays plays.
POD: Baylor -1.5
Wisc GB +1
Georgia Southern -4
POD: Baylor -1.5
Wisc GB +1
Georgia Southern -4
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