Picks 1/24/09 - Some early games

I am not sure if I will have a POD pick since I am capping this huge card piecemeal by time. Here are the early plays that I have so far locked in:

Arkansas -4.5: Auburn is a better team than people think but I still like Arkansas to cover this line. They have been very good at home only losing 1 game and should be motivated to get their first conference win. Lately they have been losing games because they have been outscored from beyond the arch and on the free throw line but Auburn is not very good from 3 (32.3%) and somehow manages to shoot worse from the free line than Arkansas.

Texas Tech ("TT") @ Missouri Over 158: At first I was looking at TT plus the points as this game could be a bit of let down spot for Missouri following a good road win @ Oklahoma St. However, I am concerned that TT might turn the ball over too much with Missouri's pressure D which could lead to a blowout. So instead I am turning to the over. Both of these teams play really fast so the pace should be torrid in this game. TT gave up 85 to TCU, 111 to Stanford, 96 to UTEP, and 116 to East Central. An argument can be made (and an easy one at that) that Missouri is better offensively than any of those teams and they should get over 90 in this game. That leaves 70 needed from TT which they should be able to get since Missouri gives up 65 a game and the pace of this one will be quicker than their average opponent.

Delaware vs Georgia St Over 125: Both of these teams play bad defense. This game features two teams with different styles. Delaware prefers to push the ball while Georgia St would rather play in the half court. Delaware has played at least 7 games against teams that prefer a slower pace and all but 2 (Northeastern and Old Dominion ) have gone over the posted total of 125. Well, Northeastern and Old Dominion play much better defense that Georgia St. In these games Delaware's pace has won out because they push the ball when they have it and play such bad defense the other team scores on them earlier in the shot clock.