Results 1/15/09

1 Wins; 5 Loses; 0 Pushes

Barf

Picks 1/15/09

Here are today's picks:

Florida Atlantic -4: Florida International is winless on the road and I have surprisingly watched both of these teams and think Florida Atlantic will put too many points on the board for FI.

Purdue -4: Purdue guards the 3 really well and Northwestern has to have it to win. Northwestern is a system team and if you can take that away they are done.

Rider -3: Rider has owned this series and I don’t think Canisus will be able to keep up with Rider.

Wisconsin minus XX: The line is -6.5 right now but I am waiting to hopefully get 6.
Wisc's defense will be too much for Minny. Unlike Iowa, however, they will be able to put some points on the board while they clamp down on the Gophers

Western Kentucky -3 (I bought the hook): Western Kentucky has been money at home and should win the rebounding battle in this game which I always feel is critical.

Butler @ Loyola Chicago Over 122: Loyola-Chicago has not been nearly as good defensively against good teams which Butler is. Butler should be able to get to 65 in this game. Butler's strength defensively is taking away the 3 pt shot but Loyola does not rely on the 3 to put up points.

That's it for now. Here are the rest of my leans:

UNC -15.5 (they should be pissed and throttle Virginia)

Over 105 in the Oregon St vs Washington St (Maybe I am sucker but it is really hard to stay under this number)

Santa Clara +20 @ Gonzaga (SC is not a bad team)

Pepperdine +19 @ San Deigo (San Diego has not been able to cover a line this big all year)

Arizona St -1 @ California (ASU has really impressed me this year)

Results 1/14/09

3 Wins; 3 Loses; 0 Pushes

Hit the middle to get a push for the night.

2nd Half Play

Pitt Game under 72 2nd half bet - The 3pt shooting was insane in the first half of this game and we have a 19 middle opportunity so I am going to take it.

Picks 1/14/08 - Cont

Here is the next set of Picks:

Wake Forrest -3.5
George Mason @ William Mary - Over 119.5
Pitt @ UCF - Over 131
Arkansas +2

I don't have time for writeups but as much as I hate to take an untested road team Arkansas they will not allow Mississippi o rebound and get the same easy points in the paint that Florida did.

I am still looking at Cuse +6.5, St Louis -3.5 (Their perimeter defense should give UMASS fits), Illinois -7, and Duquesne -10.5.

Not sure how many, if any I will play.

Picks 1/14/09

Michigan State -6 over PSU

More to follow.

Results 1/13/09

4 Wins; 2 Loses; 0 Pushes

Just to clarify that Indiana bet was on the 2nd half total. The leans on Kentucky and the Kansas Over turned to be winners but 4-2 will do. How good was Jodie Meeks tonight? One of the best single handed performances I have seen.

Tomorrow's card is pretty big so lots of capping to do.

*EDIT* - I just realized I typed the wrong date in the header for some of the picks on the 13th.

Last Add for 1/9/09

I am adding the Over 140.5 in the BYU vs TCU game. I have watched TCU play and they are a little weak on the defensive side and seem to like to push the ball. BYU averages 80 ppg so I see no reason why they will not hit 80 tonight. TCU is goof enough on offense to chip in the other 61 needed for the over.

1/19/09 Additional Pick

I am adding the Under 68 in the Indiana - Ohio St game. The score is already out of hand so the scoring at the end should be slow and Ohio St shot 11 of 16 from beyond the arch which I doubt will continue.

Picks 1/13/09

Here are tonight's picks:

Bradley -3: Harry Marshall (Indiana St's best player) is most likely not playing for Indiana St and I think this is a good spot to fade them after a huge upset win over Illinois St. Throw in the fact that Bradley is the better team I think this is a good play.

North Carolina St -4: I think this is a tough spot for Florida St. They are coming off a loss against Duke and now are on the road playing an underrated NC State team. Beating Duke is a huge deal for FSU and their fans and the Seminoles exerted a lot of effort to get back into that game but still came away losers. NC State had played a number of good teams real close but they are lacking tourney resume worthy win and I expect them to be highly motivated to get their first "good" win of the season.

Kansas -6: I was not going to bet this game but the line has dropped to -6 at the Greek so I made the play. Kansas is not even close to as good as last year but they are a much better team at home and have played well off of a loss. This will be only Kansas St's 2nd road game of the year and I don't think this team is as good as their record.

Tulsa + XX: The line is currently Tulsa +6.5 but I am waiting this out as I think I should be able to get at least +7 since the public is pounding Memphis. Tulsa is a good team that has plays above average defense. Memphis is coming off of a tougher than expected win @ UCF while Tulsa is coming off of two very good road wins. Memphis has been beating the piss out of Conference USA for 2 years and Tulsa will be highly motivated to win this game. The more I watch Memphis the more convinced I get that are really poorly coached this year and I think this is a good spot to fade them.

I have leans to Kentucky plus the points (but this line keeps dropping), the Kansas over, and the BYU over. Check back later to see if I have any additional plays.

Most Likely No Picks Tonight

I am still looking at the Texas - Oklahoma game.

Results 1/11/09

11 Wins; 5 Loses; 1 Push

Man these big Saturday cards are rough. There are so many games to cap it takes a ton of time. No complaints on the results.

Tomorrow's card has 20 games so expect fewer plays.

-JD

Last 2 Picks

Boise St -9.5 : Hawaii is bad on the road (travel) and Boise is a tough place to play. Boise already won at Hawaii by 12 earlier.

Utah St Pick Em : They have played well on the road and I am continuing to fade New Mexico St who plays zero defense and is not as good offensively as in the past.

Creighton -2

I am expecting a let down for Bradley following the big win over than undefeated Illinois State. I have seen Creighton play on TV and in person and they play very good pressure defense. They also rely on the 3 ball and Bradley's 3-point defense is average at best.

Add: Cuse -7

Rutgers shoots the 3 really bad and that is essential for beating a zone.

ADD Another

Western Kentucky - 3.5 : This line would be at least -6 has Wk won their last game against Florida International (they lost by 2) but FI shot the ball really well despite being a bad scoring/shooting team. WK is already in Florida so the travel is a non issue and I expect them to rebound and avoid their 2nd non-conference loss.

Additional Plays

Appalachia St - 13.5 : This will be Greensboro's third straight road game. 9 of their 11 loses have been by double figures. They struggle to score and are better suited for a slower pace game but App State is comfortable running and has shot the ball better at home than on the road.

Drexel +1.5 : Drexel guards the perimeter really well and GS has small guards which is key (large guards have given Drexel some problems).

SDSU -3.5 : Utah has not been a good road team and SDSU is a tough place to play.

2 PM ADD

Rhode Island +1 : SJU has struggled with RI in the past. RI has already played a couple games at the Palestra and SJU's 3-point defense has been trash this year. Nivens should have his way inside but RI's ability to press SJU's guards and their sketchy ball handling skills should be enough for the win.

Add Oaklohoma +2

ADDS

Baylor -12 (bought the hook) : TT plays no defense and Baylor is to athletic for Tech. Baylor has struggled defensively a bit against other athletic teams but TT is not one of those teams.

I have a lean on Oak but have not made it a play yet.