Picks 11/15/08 (Round 1)

Ok here are my first lot of games.

Northwestern @ Michigan - Line Michigan -3.5

The Pick: If anyone watched the Northwestern Minnesota game from 2 weeks ago you would have seen it was a battle of futility. Both teams had me scratching my head trying to figure out how they had the records they did. That game set up to successful fades the following week as Ohio St. destroyed Northwestern and Michigan beat Minnesota to both easily cover. Michigan has been playing better as of late and will want to win a game in front of their home fans so take Michigan -3.5 to the bank.

Notre Dame @ Navy - Line ND -3.5

The Pick: This is one of those special situation games that only presents itself in college sports. ND lost at home last year to Navy, the players have had to listen to the media calling for their coach and Navy's defense is not very good against the pass. Notre Dame has been struggling lately because ND's QB Jimmy Clausen has been in a funk. This defense should be poor enough for him to right the ship and ND plays against the option enough that they should be able to limit Navy's ground game enough for a ND cover. Lay the points.

New Mexico @ Colorado St - Line (now NM -2.5)

The Pick: I do not get this line move. This game opened at a pick'em. Both this team are 4 win middle of the road squads. However, Colorado St plays much better at home and nearly beat TCU and BYU at home. I locked this game in on Monday at Colorado St -0 so take the +2.5 now go with the Rams.

Texas @ Kansas - Line over/under 65.5

The Pick: The over under opened up at 70 and has steadily dropped to 65.5. I think this has created value in the over. I keep looking at this game and trying to project the total and I keep getting in the 70's. Kansas' defense sucks. Recently they have given up 45 to Nebraska, 21 to Kansas St, 63 to Texas Tech and 45 to Oklahoma. I think Texas is good for 45 and Kansas is good for at least 21. I hate to touch games with totals this high but take the Over.

More games to follow. I am finishing up my basketball analysis and will have at least 2 plays and possible another play or 2 in football.